Intelligent222/war-balance-ukraine

War Balance: where each country's money moved since 2022

Interactive map and country pages: https://warbalance.org/

For every country: how much it moved toward Ukraine (aid, its share of EU aid, refugee hosting and more) and how much less, or more, Russia kept from trade with it than in a world without the war. Trade counts the taxes and profit above a normal return, not the full sales value. Frozen Russian money is included too. Everything runs from February 2022 to the latest data month, in euros and as a share of one year's GDP.

The sign convention is the same everywhere: + means toward Ukraine, − means toward Russia.

Reading this fairly

• Every number has a likely range (about 90%). The ranges are often wide, because nobody knows exactly what each country would have traded with Russia without the war. Read the order, not the decimals.
• "Toward Ukraine" isn't only aid. Buying less from Russia than expected counts too: that is money Russia didn't get.
• Each figure has a chance for its direction and a certainty letter. The letters are A reported, B measured estimate, C modelled estimate and D rough indication. Each figure also lists its sources.
• This is a research preview. Check a figure's sources before you quote it. Corrections are welcome as a GitHub issue.

Files

Config	File	What it holds
countries (default)	war-balance-countries.csv	One row per country: support for Ukraine, trade with Russia, frozen money and the net, each with its range, % of GDP, chance and ranking group
parts	war-balance-parts.csv	Each country's net split into its parts (aid, EU share, refugees, energy, goods, services, shipping…), with certainty, evidence and sources
years	war-balance-years.csv	The same totals per year, 2022 to the current year
sources	war-balance-sources.csv	Every source used, with links
fuel_split, military_split, energy_cost		Payments to Russia by fuel, military support by type, and energy costs
russia_*		Russia's oil and gas revenue, budget balance and National Wealth Fund
data_dictionary	war-balance-data-dictionary.csv	Every column of every file, explained (also as war-balance-data-dictionary.md)

The full model output, with every part, range and source, is the JSON file at https://warbalance.org/data.json, described in data-json-schema.md.

from datasets import load_dataset
countries = load_dataset("Intelligent222/war-balance-ukraine", "countries")["train"]

Method

The method is explained in plain language at https://warbalance.org/how-it-works/, with its limits at https://warbalance.org/limitations/. In short, each part compares what happened with a world without the war. The parts are valued at each year's prices, summed from 2022, and set against one year's GDP.

Sources

The figures build on the Kiel Institute Ukraine Support Tracker, UN Comtrade, Eurostat, CREA, KSE Institute, UNHCR, SIPRI, the IMF, the World Bank, the OECD, national central banks, Euroclear and others. Every figure links to its own sources in sources and parts. Those sources keep their own terms.

Licence and citation

Data: CC BY 4.0. Code: MIT (https://github.com/intelligent-cream/war-balance).

War Balance, where each country's money moved since 2022, toward Ukraine or toward Russia, https://warbalance.org/, doi:10.5281/zenodo.23832992

@dataset{war_balance,
  author    = {{War Balance}},
  title     = {War Balance: where each country's money moved since 2022, toward Ukraine or toward Russia},
  year      = {2026},
  publisher = {Zenodo},
  doi       = {10.5281/zenodo.23832992},
  url       = {https://warbalance.org/}
}

The data are updated on the website first. This copy is a snapshot; the latest version is always at https://warbalance.org/downloads/.