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New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/brazil-2026-electoral-divergence about 2 months ago

The validated set grew to eleven elections, and Brazil 2026 is no longer the only live case

1

#7 opened about 2 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/usa-2026-midterms-divergence about 2 months ago

Published before the result: US 2026 midterms, market prices next to polls (CC BY 4.0)

#2 opened about 2 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/india-2024-lok-sabha-electoral-divergence 3 months ago

New dataset: India 2024 (Lok Sabha) Electoral Cross-Reference

#1 opened 3 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/brazil-2026-electoral-divergence 3 months ago

Dataset update: the Brazil 2026 market-versus-poll gap just hit its cycle high

1

#5 opened 3 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/peru-2026-electoral-divergence 4 months ago

Peru 2026 electoral-divergence dataset - polls × prediction market

#1 opened 4 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

Peru 2026 - divergence dataset updated with the final result.

#2 opened 4 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/brazil-2026-electoral-divergence 4 months ago

Divergence is signal. So is convergence.

#4 opened 4 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/south-korea-2025-electoral-divergence 4 months ago

New validated case: South Korea 2025 Electoral Divergence

#1 opened 4 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/colombia-2026-electoral-divergence 4 months ago

Colombia 2026 added: result + a new press layer

#2 opened 4 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/usa-2024-electoral-divergence 4 months ago

Validating the method on a known result, the 2024 US election (and where the market was wrong)

#1 opened 4 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/brazil-2026-electoral-divergence 4 months ago

Now archived with a citable DOI on the Harvard Dataverse

#3 opened 4 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/uk-2024-electoral-divergence 4 months ago

Now part of AFOS's 7-case validated set (3 continents)

#1 opened 4 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/mexico-2024-electoral-divergence 4 months ago

Now part of AFOS's 7-case validated set (3 continents)

#1 opened 4 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/canada-2025-electoral-divergence 4 months ago

New validated case: Canada 2025

#1 opened 4 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/germany-2025-electoral-divergence 4 months ago

New validated case: Germany 2025

#1 opened 4 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/chile-2025-electoral-divergence 4 months ago

New validated case: Chile 2025

#1 opened 4 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/colombia-2026-electoral-divergence 4 months ago

Colombia 2026 electoral-divergence dataset — polls × prediction market

#1 opened 4 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

New activity in AFOS-Analytics1/brazil-2026-electoral-divergence 5 months ago

"A natural experiment: the market changed its mind in 4 days (Brazil 2026)"

#2 opened 5 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1

📊 Dataset is live — daily Brazil 2026 electoral divergence (CC BY 4.0)

#1 opened 5 months ago by

AFOS-Analytics1