Daily Papers

The ongoing debate on whether reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) expands or shrinks the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) remains unresolved. Some studies contend that RLVR mainly improves sampling efficiency but at the expense of diversity and exploratory capacity, resulting in capability boundary shrinkage. In contrast, others demonstrate that prolonged training can lead to the emergence of novel reasoning strategies, suggesting capability boundary expansion. To reconcile these contradictory findings, we theoretically and empirically show that both perspectives are partially valid-each aligning with a separate phase in an inherent two-stage probability mass dynamic: (1) Exploitation stage: initially, the model primarily samples explored high-reward and low-reward tokens, while rarely selecting the potentially optimal token. Positive advantage estimates increase the probability of high-reward tokens and decrease those of low-reward tokens, yet the optimal token's probability remains largely unchanged during this stage. (2) Exploration stage: as training advances, the growth rate of previously acquired high-reward tokens slows as their probabilities approach saturation. When a potentially optimal token-now receiving positive advantage estimates-is occasionally sampled, its probability increases, while those of the originally high-reward tokens decrease. This dynamic suggests that over-exploitation during the exploitation stage may lead to capability boundary shrinkage, whereas prolonged training into the exploration stage can promote an expansion of the reasoning capability boundary. Building upon our insights, we revisit the potential of only using relative negative gradients for prolonging training, providing a theoretical and empirical foundation for the development of more advanced reasoning capabilities.

Current critic-free RL methods for large reasoning models suffer from severe inefficiency when training on positive homogeneous prompts (where all rollouts are correct), resulting in waste of rollouts due to zero advantage estimates. We introduce a radically simple yet powerful solution to Mine intrinsic mastery (Miner), that repurposes the policy's intrinsic uncertainty as a self-supervised reward signal, with no external supervision, auxiliary models, or additional inference cost. Our method pioneers two key innovations: (1) a token-level focal credit assignment mechanism that dynamically amplifies gradients on critical uncertain tokens while suppressing overconfident ones, and (2) adaptive advantage calibration to seamlessly integrate intrinsic and verifiable rewards. Evaluated across six reasoning benchmarks on Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B base models, Miner achieves state-of-the-art performance among the other four algorithms, yielding up to 4.58 absolute gains in Pass@1 and 6.66 gains in Pass@K compared to GRPO. Comparison with other methods targeted at exploration enhancement further discloses the superiority of the two newly proposed innovations. This demonstrates that latent uncertainty exploitation is both necessary and sufficient for efficient and scalable RL training of reasoning models.

When a large language model under reinforcement learning commits a wrong reasoning step early in a trajectory, standard algorithms force it to keep generating until the maximum horizon, spending compute on tokens that never receive positive reward and polluting advantage estimates with post-failure noise. We propose ESPO (Early-Stopping Proximal Policy Optimization), which detects trajectory failure on-the-fly and terminates rollouts early. At each generation step, ESPO computes a surrogate regret using only the logits already computed during sampling, and terminates when the smoothed cumulative regret significantly exceeds its estimated values. Truncated trajectories are treated as absorbing failure states with a terminal reward, concentrating negative temporal-difference (TD) errors near the detected failure step without any additional reward model or human annotation. On DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-7B trained for mathematical reasoning, ESPO surpasses PPO on AIME~2024 (46.28% vs. 45.25%), AMC~2023 (85.83% vs. 82.94%), and MATH-500 (87.42% vs. 85.43%), while saving more than 20% rollout tokens cumulatively.

Existing real-world reinforcement learning methods improve robot policies by combining human corrections with autonomous rollouts. However, accumulated experience varies in its value for policy improvement, and even successful trajectories can contain inefficient or redundant behavior, motivating more selective experience reuse. To this end, we propose Evo-RL, an iterative reinforcement learning method that combines human interventions with advantage-guided experience selection. Evo-RL uses human corrections and experience with positive estimated advantages from successful trajectories to iteratively refine the policy. To support learning from these different experience sources, we introduce RW-RL-Dataset, which spans over 1,000 hours across four robot embodiments. On a real-world high-precision manipulation task, Evo-RL improves attempt success rate over RECAP by 30.46\%. Our code, model checkpoints, and dataset are publicly available.

Reinforcement learning has emerged as a paradigm for post-training large language models, boosting their reasoning capabilities. Such approaches compute an advantage value for each sample, reflecting better or worse performance than expected, thereby yielding both positive and negative signals for training. However, the indiscriminate mixing of the two signals in existing methods, especially from the early stages, may lead to ambiguous guidance and limited gains. To address this issue, we propose **CAPO** (**C**urriculum **A**dvantage **P**olicy **O**ptimization), an adaptive curriculum mechanism based on advantage signals. The proposed mechanism bootstraps imitation learning with positive-only advantage samples to establish robust foundations, and subsequently introduces negative signals to cultivate discriminative capabilities, thereby improving generalization across complex scenarios. Compatible with diverse optimization methods including GRPO, PPO, RLOO, and Reinforce++, our method consistently achieves stable and significant improvements in mathematical reasoning tasks, and further generalizes effectively to multimodal Graphical User Interface (GUI) reasoning scenarios, establishing itself as a versatile and robust optimization framework.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) for large language models (LLMs) has achieved remarkable progress in enhancing LLMs' reasoning capabilities on tasks with clear correctness criteria, such as mathematical reasoning tasks. Several training metrics, such as entropy or response length, have been observed to correlate with different reasoning behaviors in reinforcement learning. Prior approaches incorporate such priors through reward or advantage shaping, which often relies on hand-crafted penalties and preferences (e.g., higher-is-better or lower-is-better). However, without careful hyperparameter tuning, these directional priors can be overly biased and may lead to failure. To this end, we introduce Conditional advANtage estimatiON (CANON), amplifying the impact of the target metric without presuming its direction. Specifically, CANON regroups the sampled responses into two groups based on the higher or lower value of a target metric, measures which metric trend contributes to better performance through inter-group comparison, and identifies the better response within the same group. In summary, CANON based on entropy consistently outperforms prior methods across three LLMs on both math reasoning and high-complexity logic tasks. When applied to response length, CANON further improves token efficiency, yielding a more favorable Pareto frontier in the performance-cost trade-off.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as an effective approach for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), especially in scenarios where supervised fine-tuning (SFT) falls short due to limited chain-of-thought (CoT) data. Among RL-based post-training methods, group relative advantage estimation, as exemplified by Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), has attracted considerable attention for eliminating the dependency on the value model, thereby simplifying training compared to traditional approaches like Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). However, we observe that exsiting group relative advantage estimation method still suffers from training inefficiencies, particularly when the estimated advantage approaches zero. To address this limitation, we propose Advantage-Augmented Policy Optimization (AAPO), a novel RL algorithm that optimizes the cross-entropy (CE) loss using advantages enhanced through a momentum-based estimation scheme. This approach effectively mitigates the inefficiencies associated with group relative advantage estimation. Experimental results on multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance of AAPO.

AI agents must decide when another search is worth its cost. Answer-success probabilities capture question difficulty, while this decision requires estimating the additional benefit of search. We introduce SearchHorizonBench, a benchmark for learning and evaluating search value from execution experience. Paired continuations and repeated executions separate expected search gain from generation noise and connect prediction quality to decision utility. The resource contains 45,632 executions across 3,168 questions. On 1,632 held-out questions, historical calibration reduces Brier error by 16.2%, with the improvement concentrated in success-level information. Search gains have a standard deviation of 21.4 percentage points, and tested historical estimators explain less than 2% of this variance in point estimates. Matched-configuration learning curves probe this distinction across training scales. At the reference token price, free selection observations yield a 2.49-point utility opportunity over the best constant action, driven primarily by gain information. Reusable histories, frozen splits, strong baselines and scoring tools provide a common foundation for developing and evaluating value-aware search agents.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) strengthens LLM reasoning, but training often oscillates between {entropy collapse} and {entropy explosion}. We trace both hazards to the mean baseline used in value-free RL (e.g., GRPO and DAPO), which improperly penalizes negative-advantage samples under reward outliers. We propose {Quantile Advantage Estimation} (QAE), replacing the mean with a group-wise K-quantile baseline. QAE induces a response-level, two-regime gate: on hard queries (p <= 1 - K) it reinforces rare successes, while on easy queries (p > 1 - K) it targets remaining failures. Under first-order softmax updates, we prove {two-sided entropy safety}, giving lower and upper bounds on one-step entropy change that curb explosion and prevent collapse. Empirically, this minimal modification stabilizes entropy, sparsifies credit assignment (with tuned K, roughly 80% of responses receive zero advantage), and yields sustained pass@1 gains on Qwen3-8B/14B-Base across AIME 2024/2025 and AMC 2023. These results identify {baseline design} -- rather than token-level heuristics -- as the primary mechanism for scaling RLVR.

Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) assigns a single scalar advantage to all tokens in a completion. For structured generations with explicit segments and objectives, this couples unrelated reward signals across segments, leading to objective interference and misattributed credit. We propose Blockwise Advantage Estimation, a family of GRPO-compatible methods that assigns each objective its own advantage and applies it only to the tokens in the corresponding text block, reducing reliance on hand-designed scalar rewards and scaling naturally to additional objectives. A key challenge is estimating advantages for later blocks whose rewards are conditioned on sampled prefixes; standard unbiased approaches require expensive nested rollouts from intermediate states. Concretely, we introduce an Outcome-Conditioned Baseline that approximates intermediate state values using only within-group statistics by stratifying samples according to a prefix-derived intermediate outcome. On math tasks with uncertainty estimation, our method mitigates reward interference, is competitive with a state-of-the-art reward-designed approach, and preserves test-time gains from confidence-weighted ensembling. More broadly, it provides a modular recipe for optimizing sequential objectives in structured generations without additional rollouts.

Process reward models enable fine-grained, step-level evaluation of LLMs, yet building them for agentic settings remains prohibitively difficult: long-horizon interactions, irreversible actions, and stochastic environment feedback make both human annotation and Monte Carlo estimation infeasible at scale. In this work, we show that reinforcement learning (RL) post-training already provides the ingredients for effective step-level scoring, eliminating the need for dedicated reward model training altogether. Concretely, we derive an implicit advantage under a general stochastic Markov decision process, which we term progress advantage -- log-probability ratio between the RL-trained policy and its reference policy exactly recovers the optimal advantage function. This formulation makes the resulting signal annotation-free, domain-agnostic, and available as a byproduct of the standard RL post-training pipeline. We validate the effectiveness of the progress advantage across three different applications: test-time scaling, uncertainty quantification, and failure attribution on five benchmarks and four model families. Across all settings, it consistently outperforms confidence-based baselines and, despite requiring no task-specific training, surpasses dedicated trained reward models. We complement these results with deeper analyses on characteristics of progress advantage, offering practical guidance for adoption in real-world agentic systems.

Reinforcement Learning from Verifier Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a widely used approach for post-training large language models on reasoning tasks, with group-based methods such as GRPO and its variants gaining broad adoption. These methods rely on group-relative advantage estimation to avoid learned critics, yet its theoretical properties remain poorly understood. In this work, we uncover a fundamental issue of group-based RL: the group-relative advantage estimator is inherently biased relative to the true (expected) advantage. We provide the first theoretical analysis showing that it systematically underestimates advantages for hard prompts and overestimates them for easy prompts, leading to imbalanced exploration and exploitation. To address this issue, we propose History-Aware Adaptive Difficulty Weighting (HA-DW), an adaptive reweighting scheme that adjusts advantage estimates based on an evolving difficulty anchor and training dynamics. Both theoretical analysis and experiments on five mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that HA-DW consistently improves performance when integrated into GRPO and its variants. Our results suggest that correcting biased advantage estimation is critical for robust and efficient RLVR training.

Our motivation is to shed light the performance of the widely popular "R-Learner." Like many other methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs), R-Learning can be expressed as a weighted pseudo-outcome regression (POR). Previous comparisons of POR techniques have paid careful attention to the choice of pseudo-outcome transformation. However, we argue that the dominant driver of performance is actually the choice of weights. Specifically, we argue that R-Learning implicitly performs an inverse-variance weighted form of POR. These weights stabilize the regression and allow for convenient simplifications of bias terms.

Language-model agents are usually trained by reinforcement learning from one reward per episode, and privileged self-distillation enriches it by letting the same policy, given a skill, teach its skill-free self through token probabilities. However, we identify two phenomena that question this channel. Invisible Advantage: a skill in context lifts WebShop success from 42.2% to 56.2%, yet changes the probabilities of fewer than a quarter of the sampled tokens. Much to Align: a skill changes the hidden states of over 80% of response tokens, in a way that linear probes can trace back to the specific skill. To exploit this, we propose Privileged Representation On-policy Self-Distillation (PR-OPD). After a GRPO warm start, the policy writes a hindsight skill for each trajectory, re-reads its own responses with that skill as a stop-gradient teacher, and aligns its projected hidden states to the teacher's at every layer alongside the reward objective, with no external skill library, separate teacher, or inference overhead. On ALFWorld and WebShop with two backbones, PR-OPD achieves the best overall results in every setting, improving over GRPO by up to 4.7 points in ALFWorld success and 14.0 points in WebShop accuracy. Code is available at https://github.com/balibata/PR-OPD.

Whether a language model looks demographically biased can depend on how the audit asks its question. A charitable-aid benchmark reports that the same models favor minority applicants when rating requests one at a time and penalize some when ranking side by side. We test whether that reversal generalizes to hiring, lending, and medical triage: 40,726 requests to five models, applications differing only in the applicant's name, and a primary test fixed before collection. It does not. None of 36 planned contrasts survives correction. The rating advantage keeps its sign at roughly half the published size, and a precision extension bounds any hiring ranking penalty below the published effect, though the lending and triage ranking floors sit above that margin, so the exclusion is conclusive for hiring ranking and for rating in all three domains only. Planted disparities tracking their injected sizes and a directional replication on the original aid materials bound these nulls. The audit is livelier than the demographics: models recognize transparent audits nearly always, tie every identical-content comparison whether the varying detail is race or a hobby, and reward first-listed candidates as much as any demographic effect we measure. Audit verdicts reflect audit construction more than demographic bias.

Large-scale vision-language-action (VLA) models provide powerful priors for robot manipulation, yet adapting them to a specific deployment remains challenging. Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on task-specific demonstrations provides a step toward deployment, but faces two persistent limitations: static data provide limited coverage of out-of-distribution states, and standard imitation objectives do not distinguish progressing behavior from less useful data. Interactive post-training can address these limitations, but typically requires repeated policy execution and human intervention on a physical robot. We introduce HIL-UMI, a policy-guided Universal Manipulation Interface (UMI) framework for robot-free human-in-the-loop VLA post-training. During handheld UMI demonstrations, HIL-UMI queries the current policy on the same observation stream without executing its predictions. The Energy Score compares the human action trajectory with policy inference and triggers collection when their discrepancy indicates an out-of-distribution region. In a separate feedback loop, low online advantage predictions identify essential segments for refining a progress-based advantage estimator. The updated estimator then guides advantage-conditioned behavioral cloning using a balanced mixture of base demonstrations and new policy data. This design preserves the iterative and policy-aware nature of human-in-the-loop learning while decoupling data collection from robot deployment. Experiments on four real-world tasks spanning long-horizon and precise manipulation show that HIL-UMI achieves consistent improvement over SFT and benefits from both targeted collection and advantage refinement. Moreover, HIL-UMI outperforms HG-DAgger on Clean Up Table with lower per-frame collection time, suggesting a scalable path for VLA post-training across operators and locations.

Traditional weight of evidence assigns a credit characteristic a value based on its association with default across a population. Credit analysis also requires an assessment of that characteristic in the context of an individual applicant's record. We study conditional weight of evidence for this purpose. It measures the change in default log odds from observing a characteristic after the remaining credit information is known. Its sign identifies whether the characteristic adds adverse or favorable information for that applicant, and its magnitude measures the strength of that information. The same characteristic value can therefore receive different assessments for applicants with different payment histories or other credit attributes. We develop estimators using gradient-boosted trees and evaluate their accuracy in a bureau-style simulation. Regressions of the full model's predicted probabilities recover conditional evidence more accurately than separate models fitted to default outcomes, provided the full model is accurate. They also recover a deliberately constructed file-age effect whose direction varies with utilization and is often missed by marginal weight of evidence. Local class-frequency estimates improve on marginal weight of evidence but remain inaccurate for some weak effects. An application to FICO HELOC data illustrates estimation when the population evidence is unknown. Conditional weight of evidence provides an applicant-specific interpretation of the information in a credit characteristic; its population summary, a conditional information value, splits the joint information in the record across blocks when averaged over orderings. Neither is an adverse action reason, which explains the fitted score difference between the applicant and chosen passing records.

Recently, test-time scaling Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional reasoning capabilities across scientific and professional tasks by generating long chains-of-thought (CoT). As a crucial component for developing these reasoning models, reinforcement learning (RL), exemplified by Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and its variants, allows models to learn through trial and error. However, PPO can be time-consuming due to its inherent on-policy nature, which is further exacerbated by increasing response lengths. In this work, we propose Truncated Proximal Policy Optimization (T-PPO), a novel extension to PPO that improves training efficiency by streamlining policy update and length-restricted response generation. T-PPO mitigates the issue of low hardware utilization, an inherent drawback of fully synchronized long-generation procedures, where resources often sit idle during the waiting periods for complete rollouts. Our contributions are two-folds. First, we propose Extended Generalized Advantage Estimation (EGAE) for advantage estimation derived from incomplete responses while maintaining the integrity of policy learning. Second, we devise a computationally optimized mechanism that allows for the independent optimization of the policy and value models. By selectively filtering prompt and truncated tokens, this mechanism reduces redundant computations and accelerates the training process without sacrificing convergence performance. We demonstrate the effectiveness and efficacy of T-PPO on AIME 2024 with a 32B base model. The experimental results show that T-PPO improves the training efficiency of reasoning LLMs by up to 2.5x and outperforms its existing competitors.

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) aims to assess the effectiveness of counterfactual policies using only offline logged data and is often used to identify the top-k promising policies for deployment in online A/B tests. Existing evaluation metrics for OPE estimators primarily focus on the "accuracy" of OPE or that of downstream policy selection, neglecting risk-return tradeoff in the subsequent online policy deployment. To address this issue, we draw inspiration from portfolio evaluation in finance and develop a new metric, called SharpeRatio@k, which measures the risk-return tradeoff of policy portfolios formed by an OPE estimator under varying online evaluation budgets (k). We validate our metric in two example scenarios, demonstrating its ability to effectively distinguish between low-risk and high-risk estimators and to accurately identify the most efficient one. Efficiency of an estimator is characterized by its capability to form the most advantageous policy portfolios, maximizing returns while minimizing risks during online deployment, a nuance that existing metrics typically overlook. To facilitate a quick, accurate, and consistent evaluation of OPE via SharpeRatio@k, we have also integrated this metric into an open-source software, SCOPE-RL (https://github.com/hakuhodo-technologies/scope-rl). Employing SharpeRatio@k and SCOPE-RL, we conduct comprehensive benchmarking experiments on various estimators and RL tasks, focusing on their risk-return tradeoff. These experiments offer several interesting directions and suggestions for future OPE research.

Recent advances in large language models have been driven by reinforcement learning (RL)-style post-training, which improves reasoning by optimizing model outputs based on reward or preference signals. GRPO-style approaches implement this by using self-generated samples labeled by an outcome-based verifier. However, these methods depend heavily on the model's initial ability to produce positive samples. They primarily refine what the model already knows (distribution sharpening) rather than enabling the model to solve problems where it initially fails. This limitation is especially problematic in early-stage RL training and on challenging reasoning tasks, where positive samples are unlikely to be generated. To unlock reasoning ability in such settings, the model must explore new reasoning trajectories beyond its current output distribution. Such exploration requires access to sufficiently good positive samples to guide the learning. While expert demonstrations seem like a natural solution, we find that they are often ineffective in RL post-training. Instead, we identify two key properties of effective positive samples: they should (1) be likely under the current policy, and (2) increase the model's likelihood of predicting the correct answer. Based on these insights, we propose Self-Explanation Policy Optimization (ExPO)-a simple and modular framework that generates such samples by conditioning on the ground-truth answer. ExPO enables efficient exploration and guides the model to produce reasoning trajectories more aligned with its policy than expert-written CoTs, while ensuring higher quality than its own (incorrect) samples. Experiments show that ExPO improves both learning efficiency and final performance on reasoning benchmarks, surpassing expert-demonstration-based methods in challenging settings such as MATH level-5, where the model initially struggles the most.

Enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models effectively using reinforcement learning (RL) remains a crucial challenge. Existing approaches primarily adopt two contrasting advantage estimation granularities: Token-level methods (e.g., PPO) aim to provide the fine-grained advantage signals but suffer from inaccurate estimation due to difficulties in training an accurate critic model. On the other extreme, trajectory-level methods (e.g., GRPO) solely rely on a coarse-grained advantage signal from the final reward, leading to imprecise credit assignment. To address these limitations, we propose Segment Policy Optimization (SPO), a novel RL framework that leverages segment-level advantage estimation at an intermediate granularity, achieving a better balance by offering more precise credit assignment than trajectory-level methods and requiring fewer estimation points than token-level methods, enabling accurate advantage estimation based on Monte Carlo (MC) without a critic model. SPO features three components with novel strategies: (1) flexible segment partition; (2) accurate segment advantage estimation; and (3) policy optimization using segment advantages, including a novel probability-mask strategy. We further instantiate SPO for two specific scenarios: (1) SPO-chain for short chain-of-thought (CoT), featuring novel cutpoint-based partition and chain-based advantage estimation, achieving 6-12 percentage point improvements in accuracy over PPO and GRPO on GSM8K. (2) SPO-tree for long CoT, featuring novel tree-based advantage estimation, which significantly reduces the cost of MC estimation, achieving 7-11 percentage point improvements over GRPO on MATH500 under 2K and 4K context evaluation. We make our code publicly available at https://github.com/AIFrameResearch/SPO.

The performance of acquisition functions for Bayesian optimisation to locate the global optimum of continuous functions is investigated in terms of the Pareto front between exploration and exploitation. We show that Expected Improvement (EI) and the Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) always select solutions to be expensively evaluated on the Pareto front, but Probability of Improvement is not guaranteed to do so and Weighted Expected Improvement does so only for a restricted range of weights. We introduce two novel epsilon-greedy acquisition functions. Extensive empirical evaluation of these together with random search, purely exploratory, and purely exploitative search on 10 benchmark problems in 1 to 10 dimensions shows that epsilon-greedy algorithms are generally at least as effective as conventional acquisition functions (e.g., EI and UCB), particularly with a limited budget. In higher dimensions epsilon-greedy approaches are shown to have improved performance over conventional approaches. These results are borne out on a real world computational fluid dynamics optimisation problem and a robotics active learning problem. Our analysis and experiments suggest that the most effective strategy, particularly in higher dimensions, is to be mostly greedy, occasionally selecting a random exploratory solution.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) when unobserved confounders have a bounded effect on the odds ratio of treatment selection. Our approach is scalable and allows flexible use of model classes in estimation, including nonparametric and black-box machine learning methods. Based on these bounds for the CATE, we propose a sensitivity analysis for the average treatment effect (ATE). Our semi-parametric estimator extends/bounds the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) estimator for the ATE under bounded unobserved confounding. By constructing a Neyman orthogonal score, our estimator of the bound for the ATE is a regular root-n estimator so long as the nuisance parameters are estimated at the o_p(n^{-1/4}) rate. We complement our methodology with optimality results showing that our proposed bounds are tight in certain cases. We demonstrate our method on simulated and real data examples, and show accurate coverage of our confidence intervals in practical finite sample regimes with rich covariate information.

Training on model-generated synthetic data is a promising approach for finetuning LLMs, but it remains unclear when it helps or hurts. In this paper, we investigate this question for math reasoning via an empirical study, followed by building a conceptual understanding of our observations. First, we find that while the typical approach of finetuning a model on synthetic correct or positive problem-solution pairs generated by capable models offers modest performance gains, sampling more correct solutions from the finetuned learner itself followed by subsequent fine-tuning on this self-generated data doubles the efficiency of the same synthetic problems. At the same time, training on model-generated positives can amplify various spurious correlations, resulting in flat or even inverse scaling trends as the amount of data increases. Surprisingly, we find that several of these issues can be addressed if we also utilize negative responses, i.e., model-generated responses that are deemed incorrect by a final answer verifier. Crucially, these negatives must be constructed such that the training can appropriately recover the utility or advantage of each intermediate step in the negative response. With this per-step scheme, we are able to attain consistent gains over only positive data, attaining performance similar to amplifying the amount of synthetic data by 8 times. We show that training on per-step negatives can help to unlearn spurious correlations in the positive data, and is equivalent to advantage-weighted reinforcement learning (RL), implying that it inherits robustness benefits of RL over imitating positive data alone.

AI agents increasingly operate in environments where they can diagnose failures and improve through experience, yet existing evaluations largely measure what an agent can do at a fixed point in time rather than how effectively it learns. Evaluating self-improvement requires answering three questions: does future performance improve and generalize beyond the interactions that enabled learning; how efficiently are new capabilities acquired; and where does the self-improvement process break down? To answer these questions, we study self-improvement in a controlled setting where agents amortize past experience into reusable artifacts that are inherited by future instances. At each checkpoint, we measure performance on training and held-out environment interactions while accounting for learning cost. We introduce agent plasticity, the efficiency with which an agent converts experience into gains in future held-out performance. Across multiple environments, frontier models exhibit sharply different improvement trajectories despite comparable opportunities to learn. Some achieve substantial and persistent gains, while others remain near or below their initial performance, and gains within the training regime often transfer only partially to out-of-distribution conditions. Endpoint capability and acquisition efficiency also diverge: the agent that ultimately performs best need not be the one that improves most efficiently. Tracing failures through the improvement loop further reveals different candidate bottlenecks. Agents with low plasticity often fail to reuse relevant artifacts, whereas more plastic agents may still fail despite reusing relevant artifacts, pointing to limitations in artifact quality, generalization, or application. Evaluating self-improving agents requires measuring not only what they can do, but how effectively they become better through experience.

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is widely used in reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards for language-model reasoning. While value evolution along trajectory characterizes relative token-level credit, yet standard critics often fail to track it under sparse terminal rewards. To model this evolution, we analyze the relation between successive prefix values and show that they admit a Bayesian decomposition with additive updates in log-odds space. We use this additive structure to construct Tracking-Value PPO (\method), a cumulative value parameterization that sums position-wise scalar outputs into value logits. These outputs are learned through terminal-outcome supervision on the reconstructed values. \method improves aggregate mathematical reasoning scores over PPO by 7.0 and 8.4 points on Qwen3-4B-Base and Qwen3-8B-Base, respectively, while improving out-of-distribution generalization. Gains extend to Qwen3-4B, Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B, Qwen3.5-9B and to countdown, and scientific coding tasks. Further analysis shows more accurate tracking of value evolution and more reliable advantage estimates. Our code is publicly available in https://github.com/LINs-lab/TPPO.

Standard policy gradients weight each sampled action by advantage alone, regardless of how likely that action was under the current policy. This creates two pathologies: within a single decision context (e.g. one image or prompt), a rare negative-advantage action can disproportionately distort the update direction; across many such contexts in a batch, the expected gradient over-allocates budget to contexts the policy already handles well. We introduce the Delightful Policy Gradient (DG), which gates each term with a sigmoid of delight, the product of advantage and action surprisal (negative log-probability). For K-armed bandits, DG provably improves directional accuracy in a single context and, across multiple contexts, shifts the expected gradient strictly closer to the supervised cross-entropy oracle. This second effect is not variance reduction: it persists even with infinite samples. Empirically, DG outperforms REINFORCE, PPO, and advantage-weighted baselines across MNIST, transformer sequence modeling, and continuous control, with larger gains on harder tasks.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) are typically trained using reinforcement learning with verifiable reward (RLVR) to enhance their reasoning abilities. In this paradigm, policies are updated using both positive and negative self-generated rollouts, which correspond to distinct sample polarities. In this paper, we provide a systematic investigation into how these sample polarities affect RLVR training dynamics and behaviors. We find that positive samples sharpen existing correct reasoning patterns, while negative samples encourage exploration of new reasoning paths. We further explore how adjusting the advantage values of positive and negative samples at both the sample level and the token level affects RLVR training. Based on these insights, we propose an Adaptive and Asymmetric token-level Advantage shaping method for Policy Optimization, namely A3PO, that more precisely allocates advantage signals to key tokens across different polarities. Experiments across five reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

Recent advances in reinforcement learning for foundation models, such as Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), have significantly improved the performance of foundation models on reasoning tasks. Notably, the advantage function serves as a central mechanism in GRPO for ranking the trajectory importance. However, existing explorations encounter both advantage reversion and advantage mirror problems, which hinder the reasonable advantage allocation across different query samples. In this work, we propose an easy but effective GRPO strategy, Mixed Advantage Policy Optimization (MAPO). We reveal that the trajectory appears with different certainty and propose the advantage percent deviation for samples with high-certainty trajectories. Furthermore, we dynamically reweight the advantage function for samples with varying trajectory certainty, thereby adaptively configuring the advantage function to account for sample-specific characteristics. Comparison with related state-of-the-art methods, along with ablation studies on different advantage variants, validates the effectiveness of our approach.

A widely used technique for improving policies is success conditioning, in which one collects trajectories, identifies those that achieve a desired outcome, and updates the policy to imitate the actions taken along successful trajectories. This principle appears under many names -- rejection sampling with SFT, goal-conditioned RL, Decision Transformers -- yet what optimization problem it solves, if any, has remained unclear. We prove that success conditioning exactly solves a trust-region optimization problem, maximizing policy improvement subject to a χ^2 divergence constraint whose radius is determined automatically by the data. This yields an identity: relative policy improvement, the magnitude of policy change, and a quantity we call action-influence -- measuring how random variation in action choices affects success rates -- are exactly equal at every state. Success conditioning thus emerges as a conservative improvement operator. Exact success conditioning cannot degrade performance or induce dangerous distribution shift, but when it fails, it does so observably, by hardly changing the policy at all. We apply our theory to the common practice of return thresholding, showing this can amplify improvement, but at the cost of potential misalignment with the true objective.

Agentic reinforcement learning (RL) has become a critical stage in the post-training of large language models. Existing critic-free, group-relative methods estimate policy advantages from multiple rollouts, avoiding the substantial memory overhead of conventional proximal policy optimization (PPO) and achieving strong performance on long-horizon interactive tasks. Despite their success, recent studies revealed three limitations: (1) Lack explicit value generalization and effective temporal credit assignment; (2) Suffer from potential advantage collapse in long-horizon complex tasks; (3) Require a costly trade-off between sampling budget and policy performance. In this work, we propose Single-rollout Autoregressive Policy Optimization (SAPO), a low-memory and compute-efficient framework in which the policy and value functions share a single autoregressive backbone. SAPO exploits the autoregressive structure of LLMs to produce policy and value predictions at distinct causal boundaries with shared parameters, while independently optimizing the PPO objectives and auxiliary on-policy SARSA objectives. To robustly estimate the contribution of each turn, we further introduce a trajectory-level generalized advantage estimator that combines lambda-returns with batch normalization. Experiments across ALFWorld and WebShop with Qwen2.5-1.5B/7B show that SAPO trains stably and outperforms PPO and GRPO by mean +15.1 and +12.1 percentage points, respectively, while eliminating the memory cost of a separate critic model and reducing per-iteration runtime by 33.2% over PPO.

To combine the advantages of Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning (RL), recent methods have integrated ''hints'' into post-training, which are prefix segments of complete reasoning trajectories, aiming for powerful knowledge expansion and reasoning generalization. However, existing hint-based RL methods typically ignore difficulty when scheduling hint ratios and estimating relative advantages, leading to unstable learning and excessive imitation of off-policy hints. In this work, we propose ADHint, which treats difficulty as a key factor in both hint-ratio schedule and relative-advantage estimation to achieve a better trade-off between exploration and imitation. Specifically, we propose Adaptive Hint with Sample Difficulty Prior, which evaluates each sample's difficulty under the policy model and accordingly schedules an appropriate hint ratio to guide its rollouts. We also introduce Consistency-based Gradient Modulation and Selective Masking for Hint Preservation to modulate token-level gradients within hints, preventing biased and destructive updates. Additionally, we propose Advantage Estimation with Rollout Difficulty Posterior, which leverages the relative difficulty of rollouts with and without hints to estimate their respective advantages, thereby achieving more balanced updates. Extensive experiments across diverse modalities, model scales, and domains demonstrate that ADHint delivers superior reasoning ability and out-of-distribution generalization, consistently surpassing existing methods in both pass@1 and avg@8. Our code and dataset will be made publicly available upon paper acceptance.

Much research in machine learning involves finding appropriate inductive biases (e.g. convolutional neural networks, momentum-based optimizers, transformers) to promote generalization on tasks. However, quantification of the amount of inductive bias associated with these architectures and hyperparameters has been limited. We propose a novel method for efficiently computing the inductive bias required for generalization on a task with a fixed training data budget; formally, this corresponds to the amount of information required to specify well-generalizing models within a specific hypothesis space of models. Our approach involves modeling the loss distribution of random hypotheses drawn from a hypothesis space to estimate the required inductive bias for a task relative to these hypotheses. Unlike prior work, our method provides a direct estimate of inductive bias without using bounds and is applicable to diverse hypothesis spaces. Moreover, we derive approximation error bounds for our estimation approach in terms of the number of sampled hypotheses. Consistent with prior results, our empirical results demonstrate that higher dimensional tasks require greater inductive bias. We show that relative to other expressive model classes, neural networks as a model class encode large amounts of inductive bias. Furthermore, our measure quantifies the relative difference in inductive bias between different neural network architectures. Our proposed inductive bias metric provides an information-theoretic interpretation of the benefits of specific model architectures for certain tasks and provides a quantitative guide to developing tasks requiring greater inductive bias, thereby encouraging the development of more powerful inductive biases.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

Generation, imputation, and prediction query different aspects of the same tabular distribution, but are usually evaluated separately. This leaves unclear which capabilities they share, how their training objectives interact, and whether one model can perform all three well. We introduce the One Table Benchmark (), spanning 56 datasets, 46 registered methods, and 20 capability axes under aligned data splits and explicit task contracts. We compare task ranks on aligned support, train five backbones under all seven non-empty objective combinations on five datasets with three seeds, and contrast fixed-model profiles with specialist portfolios. Rank comparisons connect imputation and prediction through numerical recovery and dependence preservation, and link generation to both through predictive utility; distributional fidelity follows different, sometimes opposing, rankings. Objective interventions show the largest pooled gains from including the recipient's own objective. Generation has the broadest coverage of positive pooled auxiliary effects, while prediction shows potential to improve imputation and synthetic-data utility, with responses that vary across backbones. Cross-addition effects reveal that objective benefits need not add and depend on the objectives already present. Fixed-model comparisons expose corresponding utility--fidelity trade-offs: some generalists surpass specialist portfolios on utility, while fidelity continues to favor specialization. Frozen foundation models show strong prediction and numerical point imputation, together with promising synthetic-data utility, highlighting their potential across all three tasks. These findings motivate unified tabular models that share useful conditional information while improving categorical reconstruction and faithful joint sampling.

Learning from off-policy data is essential for sample-efficient reinforcement learning. In the present work, we build on the insight that the advantage function can be understood as the causal effect of an action on the return, and show that this allows us to decompose the return of a trajectory into parts caused by the agent's actions (skill) and parts outside of the agent's control (luck). Furthermore, this decomposition enables us to naturally extend Direct Advantage Estimation (DAE) to off-policy settings (Off-policy DAE). The resulting method can learn from off-policy trajectories without relying on importance sampling techniques or truncating off-policy actions. We draw connections between Off-policy DAE and previous methods to demonstrate how it can speed up learning and when the proposed off-policy corrections are important. Finally, we use the MinAtar environments to illustrate how ignoring off-policy corrections can lead to suboptimal policy optimization performance.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) enhances reasoning of Large Language Models (LLMs) but usually exhibits limited generation diversity due to the over-incentivization of positive rewards. Although methods like Negative Sample Reinforcement (NSR) mitigate this issue by upweighting penalty from negative samples, they may suppress the semantic distributions shared between positive and negative responses. To boost reasoning ability without losing diversity, this paper proposes negative sample projection Residual Reinforcement Learning (ResRL) that decouples similar semantic distributions among positive and negative responses. We theoretically link Lazy Likelihood Displacement (LLD) to negative-positive head-gradient interference and derive a single-forward proxy that upper-bounds representation alignment to guide conservative advantage reweighting. ResRL then projects negative-token hidden representations onto an SVD-based low-rank positive subspace and uses projection residuals to modulate negative gradients, improving reasoning while preserving diversity and outperforming strong baselines on average across twelve benchmarks spanning Mathematics, Code, Agent Tasks, and Function Calling. Notably, ResRL surpasses NSR on mathematical reasoning by 9.4\% in Avg@16 and 7.0\% in Pass@128. Code is available at https://github.com/1229095296/ResRL.git.

Reinforcement learning has become a cornerstone technique for developing reasoning models in complex tasks, ranging from mathematical problem-solving to imaginary reasoning. The optimization of these models typically relies on policy gradient methods, whose efficacy hinges on the accurate estimation of an advantage function. However, prevailing methods typically employ static advantage estimation, a practice that leads to inefficient credit assignment by neglecting the dynamic utility of training samples over time. This limitation results in suboptimal policy updates, which in turn manifest as slower convergence rates and increased learning instability, as models fail to adapt to evolving sample utilities effectively. To address this problem, we introduce ADORA (Advantage Dynamics via Online Rollout Adaptation), a novel framework for policy optimization. ADORA dynamically adjusts the advantage function's weighting by adaptively categorizing training data into temporarily advantageous and disadvantageous samples, based on their evolving utility during online model rollouts. This tailored data differentiation strategy allows ADORA to be seamlessly integrated into existing policy optimization algorithms without significant architectural modifications, enabling the policy to prioritize learning from more informative experiences and thereby achieve more efficient policy updates. Extensive evaluations across diverse model families and varying data scales demonstrate that ADORA is a robust and efficient framework. It significantly enhances long reasoning in both geometric and mathematical tasks, consistently achieving notable performance gains without requiring sensitive hyperparameter tuning.

On-policy self-distillation provides dense supervision for reasoning models via a privileged self-teacher. However, this supervision reflects local token preferences rather than the expected return of an unguided student continuation. Recent methods combine this signal with GRPO. They use GRPO for update directions and the teacher for signal scaling. However, we demonstrate a more effective integration within PPO. Specifically, we identify complementary positional dynamics: privileged information enhances a critic's value-prediction accuracy toward the response's end, whereas self-teacher guidance is strong initially, drops mid-generation, and rebounds finally. These insights motivate Value-Augmented Self-Distillation Policy Optimization (VASPO), wherein a self-teacher and critic evaluate identical privileged information at student-generated prefixes. The critic computes token-level PPO advantages from predicted continuation returns, while the self-teacher modulates selected positive advantages via bounded probability ratios. Across six mathematical reasoning benchmarks, VASPO improves mean accuracy over PPO by 2.59 and 1.81 percentage points on Qwen3-4B and OLMo3-7B variants, respectively, and achieves the highest mean accuracy among evaluated methods on Knights and Knaves. Our code is available at https://github.com/cii030/VASPO.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

The economic value of inference depends on how capacity and task information are distributed across stages of AI production. We study these organizational margins using controlled workflow experiments on externally verified software-engineering tasks. In two matched resource panels, direct execution records the same success rate of 59.6 percent at logical-token ceilings of 12,000 and 24,000, while success under information-constrained planning rises from 36.2 to 51.2 percent. The planning disadvantage narrows by 15.0 percentage points (95 percent task-cluster bootstrap interval: 4.2 to 25.8). A strict read-only planning campaign varies whether the planner sees the task issue. At 12,000 tokens, issue access raises success by about 16 percentage points over issue-hidden planning. Compared with direct execution, task-informed planning is about 10 points lower at 12,000 tokens; at 24,000 tokens, it shows a 29.6-point advantage. In the resource panels, direct execution uses substantially less than either ceiling, while the planning workflow's binding rate falls from 46.2 to 0.8 percent and downstream execution accounts for 89.9 percent of the increase in total use. Scale determines the capacity available to a system; workflow and information structure shape the productive value

When deploying a single predictor across multiple subpopulations, we propose a fundamentally different approach: interpreting group fairness as a bargaining problem among subpopulations. This game-theoretic perspective reveals that existing robust optimization methods such as minimizing worst-group loss or regret correspond to classical bargaining solutions and embody different fairness principles. We propose relative improvement, the ratio of actual risk reduction to potential reduction from a baseline predictor, which recovers the Kalai-Smorodinsky solution. Unlike absolute-scale methods that may not be comparable when groups have different potential predictability, relative improvement provides axiomatic justification including scale invariance and individual monotonicity. We establish finite-sample convergence guarantees under mild conditions.

In the field of algorithmic fairness, significant attention has been put on group fairness criteria, such as Demographic Parity and Equalized Odds. Nevertheless, these objectives, measured as global averages, have raised concerns about persistent local disparities between sensitive groups. In this work, we address the problem of local fairness, which ensures that the predictor is unbiased not only in terms of expectations over the whole population, but also within any subregion of the feature space, unknown at training time. To enforce this objective, we introduce ROAD, a novel approach that leverages the Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) framework within a fair adversarial learning objective, where an adversary tries to infer the sensitive attribute from the predictions. Using an instance-level re-weighting strategy, ROAD is designed to prioritize inputs that are likely to be locally unfair, i.e. where the adversary faces the least difficulty in reconstructing the sensitive attribute. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our method: it achieves Pareto dominance with respect to local fairness and accuracy for a given global fairness level across three standard datasets, and also enhances fairness generalization under distribution shift.

We seek to understand fundamental tradeoffs between the accuracy of prior information that a learner has on a given problem and its learning performance. We introduce the notion of prioritized risk, which differs from traditional notions of minimax and Bayes risk by allowing us to study such fundamental tradeoffs in settings where reality does not necessarily conform to the learner's prior. We present a general reduction-based approach for extending classical minimax lower-bound techniques in order to lower bound the prioritized risk for statistical estimation problems. We also introduce a novel generalization of Fano's inequality (which may be of independent interest) for lower bounding the prioritized risk in more general settings involving unbounded losses. We illustrate the ability of our framework to provide insights into tradeoffs between prior information and learning performance for problems in estimation, regression, and reinforcement learning.

Language model fine-tuning is essential for modern natural language processing, but is computationally expensive and time-consuming. Further, the effectiveness of fine-tuning is limited by the inclusion of training examples that negatively affect performance. Here we present a general fine-tuning method that we call information gain filtration for improving the overall training efficiency and final performance of language model fine-tuning. We define the information gain of an example as the improvement on a test metric after training on that example. A secondary learner is then trained to approximate this quantity. During fine-tuning, this learner selects informative examples and skips uninformative ones. We show that our method has consistent improvement across datasets, fine-tuning tasks, and language model architectures. For example, we achieve a median perplexity of 54.0 on a books dataset compared to 57.3 for standard fine-tuning. We present statistical evidence that offers insight into the improvements of our method over standard fine-tuning. The generality of our method leads us to propose a new paradigm for language model fine-tuning -- we encourage researchers to release pretrained secondary learners on common corpora to promote efficient and effective fine-tuning, thereby improving the performance and reducing the overall energy footprint of language model fine-tuning.

Efficiently and flexibly estimating treatment effect heterogeneity is an important task in a wide variety of settings ranging from medicine to marketing, and there are a considerable number of promising conditional average treatment effect estimators currently available. These, however, typically rely on the assumption that the measured covariates are enough to justify conditional exchangeability. We propose the P-learner, motivated by the R- and DR-learner, a tailored two-stage loss function for learning heterogeneous treatment effects in settings where exchangeability given observed covariates is an implausible assumption, and we wish to rely on proxy variables for causal inference. Our proposed estimator can be implemented by off-the-shelf loss-minimizing machine learning methods, which in the case of kernel regression satisfies an oracle bound on the estimated error as long as the nuisance components are estimated reasonably well.

RLVR has enhanced the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) across various tasks. However, GRPO, a representative RLVR algorithm, suffers from a critical limitation: when all responses within a group are either entirely correct or entirely incorrect, the model fails to learn from these homogeneous responses. This is particularly problematic for homogeneously incorrect groups, where GRPO's advantage function yields a value of zero, leading to null gradients and the loss of valuable learning signals. To overcome this issue, we propose NGRPO (Negative-enhanced Group Relative Policy Optimization), an algorithm designed to convert homogeneous errors into robust learning signals. First, NGRPO introduces Advantage Calibration. This mechanism hypothesizes the existence of a virtual maximum-reward sample during advantage calculation, thereby altering the mean and variance of rewards within a group and ensuring that the advantages for homogeneously incorrect samples are no longer zero. Second, NGRPO employs Asymmetric Clipping, which relaxes the update magnitude for positive samples while imposing stricter constraints on that of negative samples. This serves to stabilize the exploration pressure introduced by the advantage calibration. Our experiments on Qwen2.5-Math-7B demonstrate that NGRPO significantly outperforms baselines such as PPO, GRPO, DAPO, and PSR-NSR on mathematical benchmarks including MATH500, AMC23, and AIME2025. These results validate NGRPO's ability to learn from homogeneous errors, leading to stable and substantial improvements in mathematical reasoning. Our code is available at https://github.com/nangongrui-ngr/NGRPO.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (e.g. GRPO) is now a common way to improve mathematical reasoning in Large Language Models (LLMs). However, current methods usually broadcast one sequence-level advantage to all tokens, or use costly process reward models (PRMs) for step-level supervision. Uniform advantage distribution assumes that all tokens contribute equally to the final reward. This dilutes the gradient signal, since flawed reasoning steps and filler words are updated as strongly as valid logical inferences. To address this, we introduce Gradient-Reweighted Advantage (GRAIL), an intrinsic token-wise advantage reweighting method. GRAIL uses gradient-activation saliency to place more weight on tokens that are more locally sensitive to the final answer. Evaluations across five models from the Qwen3, R1-distilled and OctoThinker families show that GRAIL consistently outperforms GRPO. GRAIL achieved an average improvement of 3.60% in accuracy and 3.05% in Pass@3, demonstrating that fine-grained reasoning alignment can be achieved without process-level supervision.

Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) estimation is one of the main challenges in causal inference with observational data. In addition to Machine Learning based-models, nonparametric estimators called meta-learners have been developed to estimate the CATE with the main advantage of not restraining the estimation to a specific supervised learning method. This task becomes, however, more complicated when the treatment is not binary as some limitations of the naive extensions emerge. This paper looks into meta-learners for estimating the heterogeneous effects of multi-valued treatments. We consider different meta-learners, and we carry out a theoretical analysis of their error upper bounds as functions of important parameters such as the number of treatment levels, showing that the naive extensions do not always provide satisfactory results. We introduce and discuss meta-learners that perform well as the number of treatments increases. We empirically confirm the strengths and weaknesses of those methods with synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets.

Long-horizon robotic manipulation remains challenging for reinforcement learning (RL) because sparse rewards provide limited guidance for credit assignment. Practical policy improvement thus relies on richer intermediate supervision, such as dense progress rewards, which are costly to obtain and ill-suited to non-monotonic behaviors such as backtracking and recovery. To address this, we propose Advantage Reward Modeling (ARM), a framework that shifts from hard-to-quantify absolute progress to estimating relative advantage. We introduce a cost-effective tri-state labeling strategy -- Progressive, Regressive, and Stagnant -- that reduces human cognitive overhead while ensuring high cross-annotator consistency. By training on these intuitive signals, ARM enables automated progress annotation for both complete demonstrations and fragmented DAgger-style data. Integrating ARM into an offline RL pipeline allows for adaptive action-reward reweighting, effectively filtering suboptimal samples. Our approach achieves a 99.4% success rate on a challenging long-horizon towel-folding task, demonstrating improved stability and data efficiency over current VLA baselines with near-zero human intervention during policy training.

Probabilistic models are typically trained using task-agnostic objectives like log-loss, which can lead to significant errors in downstream estimation. This disconnect is especially critical in Inverse Probability Weighting (IPW) for causal inference, where propensity score errors near 0 and 1 often lead to high bias and variance. We propose a principled framework for deriving task-specific strictly proper scoring rules by matching the local curvature of the downstream error metric. We apply this to the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) estimation, deriving a closed-form loss and its corresponding canonical probability mapping that can be readily integrated with any model like a neural network or a gradient boosting algorithm. Extensive evaluations on causal inference benchmarks demonstrate that our tailored objective consistently outperforms standard likelihood-based and covariate-balancing approaches.

Recursive self-improvement requires agents to turn accumulated experience into better future behavior. Personal AI agents offer a concrete setting for studying this capability because they retain preferences, task histories, tool routines, and learned skills across sessions. Yet whether retained experience actually improves them over time has not been systematically tested. We introduce PAST-Bench, a benchmark designed to isolate this question. Each agent runs through ordered sequences of fresh-session tasks under matched conditions that turn retained experience on and off. It spans 26 scenarios and 204 episodes across memory, procedural reuse, information gathering, and update. We report both later-task gains and whether those gains follow the intended save, retrieve, and update pathway. Across seven base models and four agent frameworks, improvement is real but uneven across capabilities. Agents with the same headline gain can differ markedly in whether that gain is supported by evidence of the intended pathway. Guided by these findings, we develop Hermes+, which extends Hermes with five targeted interventions across stages of the agent loop. Hermes+ raises the average gain from retained experience and provides clearer pathway evidence, with its strongest improvement on tasks requiring outdated state to be replaced, although the effect remains capability- and model-dependent. Together, PAST-Bench and Hermes+ provide an evaluation and diagnostic foundation for studying how persistent agents can progress from retaining experience to systematically improving through it. Code: https://github.com/Gen-Verse/PAST-Bench

Realistic environments often provide agents with very limited feedback. When the environment is initially unknown, the feedback, in the beginning, can be completely absent, and the agents may first choose to devote all their effort on exploring efficiently. The exploration remains a challenge while it has been addressed with many hand-tuned heuristics with different levels of generality on one side, and a few theoretically-backed exploration strategies on the other. Many of them are incarnated by intrinsic motivation and in particular explorations bonuses. A common rule of thumb for exploration bonuses is to use 1/n bonus that is added to the empirical estimates of the reward, where n is a number of times this particular state (or a state-action pair) was visited. We show that, surprisingly, for a pure-exploration objective of reward-free exploration, bonuses that scale with 1/n bring faster learning rates, improving the known upper bounds with respect to the dependence on the horizon H. Furthermore, we show that with an improved analysis of the stopping time, we can improve by a factor H the sample complexity in the best-policy identification setting, which is another pure-exploration objective, where the environment provides rewards but the agent is not penalized for its behavior during the exploration phase.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) is commonly based on group sampling to estimate advantages and stabilize policy updates. In practice, large group sizes are not feasible due to computational limits, which biases learning toward trajectories that are already likely. Smaller groups often miss rare-correct trajectories while still containing mixed rewards, concentrating probability on common solutions. We derive the probability that updates miss rare-correct modes as a function of group size, showing non-monotonic behavior, and characterize how updates redistribute mass within the correct set, revealing that unsampled-correct mass can shrink even as total correct mass grows. Motivated by this analysis, we propose a difficulty-aware advantage scaling coefficient, inspired by Focal loss, that down-weights updates on high-success prompts. The lightweight modification can be directly integrated into any group-relative RLVR algorithm such as GRPO, DAPO, and CISPO. On Qwen2.5-7B across in-domain and out-of-domain benchmarks, our method improves pass@256 from 64.1 rightarrow 70.3 (GRPO), 69.3 rightarrow 72.5 (DAPO), and 73.2 rightarrow 76.8 (CISPO), while preserving or improving pass@1, without increasing group size or computational cost.

Recent large reasoning models (LRMs) driven by reinforcement learning algorithms (e.g., GRPO) have achieved remarkable performance on challenging reasoning tasks. However, these models suffer from overthinking, generating unnecessarily long and redundant reasoning even for simple questions, which substantially increases computational cost and response latency. While existing methods incorporate length rewards to GRPO to promote concise reasoning, they incur significant performance degradation. We identify the root cause: when rewards for correct but long rollouts are penalized, GRPO's group-relative advantage function can assign them negative advantages, actively discouraging valid reasoning. To overcome this, we propose Decoupled Reward Policy Optimization (DRPO), a novel framework that decouples the length-based learning signal of correct rollouts from incorrect ones. DRPO ensures that reward signals for correct rollouts are normalized solely within the positive group, shielding them from interference by negative samples. The DRPO's objective is grounded in integrating an optimized positive data distribution, which maximizes length-based rewards under a KL regularization, into a discriminative objective. We derive a closed-form solution for this distribution, enabling efficient computation of the objective and its gradients using only on-policy data and importance weighting. Of independent interest, this formulation is general and can incorporate other preference rewards of positive data beyond length. Experiments on mathematical reasoning tasks demonstrate DRPO's significant superiority over six efficient reasoning baselines. Notably, with a 1.5B model, our method achieves 77\% length reduction with only 1.1\% performance loss on simple questions like GSM8k dataset, while the follow-up baseline sacrifices 4.3\% for 68\% length reduction.

In machine learning systems, bias mitigation approaches aim to make outcomes fairer across privileged and unprivileged groups. Bias mitigation methods work in different ways and have known "waterfall" effects, e.g., mitigating bias at one place may manifest bias elsewhere. In this paper, we aim to characterise impacted cohorts when mitigation interventions are applied. To do so, we treat intervention effects as a classification task and learn an explainable meta-classifier to identify cohorts that have altered outcomes. We examine a range of bias mitigation strategies that work at various stages of the model life cycle. We empirically demonstrate that our meta-classifier is able to uncover impacted cohorts. Further, we show that all tested mitigation strategies negatively impact a non-trivial fraction of cases, i.e., people who receive unfavourable outcomes solely on account of mitigation efforts. This is despite improvement in fairness metrics. We use these results as a basis to argue for more careful audits of static mitigation interventions that go beyond aggregate metrics.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable problem-solving and basic mathematics abilities. However, their efficacy is highly contingent on the formulation of the prompt. This study endeavors to quantify the influence of incorporating "positive thinking" into the system message of the prompt, then compare that to systematic prompt optimization. We assess the performance of 60 combinations of system message snippets, tested with and without Chain of Thought prompting, across three models with parameters ranging from 7 to 70 billion on the GSM8K dataset. Our findings reveal that results do not universally generalize across models. In most instances, the inclusion of "positive thinking" prompts positively affected model performance. Notably, however, Llama2-70B exhibited an exception when not utilizing Chain of Thought, as the optimal system message was found to be none at all. Given the combinatorial complexity, and thus computation time, of experimenting with hand-tuning prompts for large black-box models, we then compared the performance of the best "positive thinking" prompt against the output of systematic prompt optimization. We show that employing an automated prompt optimizer emerges as the most effective method for enhancing performance, even when working with smaller open-source models. Additionally, our findings reveal that the highest-scoring, automatically-optimized prompt exhibits a degree of peculiarity far beyond expectations.

In hybrid forecasting, a language model is often one of several available signals. A system may already have a market, crowd, or statistical forecast and must decide whether the model adds useful information or should be ignored. The relevant target is therefore not standalone model accuracy, but relative competence, defined as the model's marginal value beyond the available external forecast. Under Brier loss, we characterize when model disagreement can improve an external forecast and derive the gain from using domain-specific rather than global pooling weights. We then introduce a competence gate that estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, the gate improves the main external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and significantly outperforms global forecast combinations. The gain remains significant under leakage controls and against a leakage-safe time-series prior on the pooled structured set, with separate evidence on FRED. In contrast, the gate gives no significant improvement on the official ForecastBench market subset, where it largely defers to the market. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence does not reliably identify when the model outperforms the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supports better abstention decisions. These results provide a practical approach for selective model use based on measured marginal value.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) elicits long chain-of-thought reasoning in large language models (LLMs), but outcome-based rewards lead to coarse-grained advantage estimation. While existing approaches improve RLVR via token-level entropy or sequence-level length control, they lack a semantically grounded, step-level measure of reasoning progress. As a result, LLMs fail to distinguish necessary deduction from redundant verification: they may continue checking after reaching a correct solution and, in extreme cases, overturn a correct trajectory into an incorrect final answer. To remedy the lack of process supervision, we introduce a training-free probing mechanism that extracts intermediate confidence and correctness and combines them into a Step Potential signal that explicitly estimates the reasoning state at each step. Building on this signal, we propose Step Potential Advantage Estimation (SPAE), a fine-grained credit assignment method that amplifies potential gains, penalizes potential drops, and applies penalty after potential saturates to encourage timely termination. Experiments across multiple benchmarks show SPAE consistently improves accuracy while substantially reducing response length, outperforming strong RL baselines and recent efficient reasoning and token-level advantage estimation methods. The code is available at https://github.com/cii030/SPAE-RL.

In this article, we consider identification, estimation, and inference procedures for treatment effect parameters using Difference-in-Differences (DiD) with (i) multiple time periods, (ii) variation in treatment timing, and (iii) when the "parallel trends assumption" holds potentially only after conditioning on observed covariates. We show that a family of causal effect parameters are identified in staggered DiD setups, even if differences in observed characteristics create non-parallel outcome dynamics between groups. Our identification results allow one to use outcome regression, inverse probability weighting, or doubly-robust estimands. We also propose different aggregation schemes that can be used to highlight treatment effect heterogeneity across different dimensions as well as to summarize the overall effect of participating in the treatment. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators and prove the validity of a computationally convenient bootstrap procedure to conduct asymptotically valid simultaneous (instead of pointwise) inference. Finally, we illustrate the relevance of our proposed tools by analyzing the effect of the minimum wage on teen employment from 2001--2007. Open-source software is available for implementing the proposed methods.

Group-based reinforcement learning methods such as GRPO for large language models avoid training a critic by sampling multiple responses for each prompt. A reliable critic could instead estimate token-level advantages from one response, but standard critic-based training recipes are often unstable. We study this instability and develop **Best Practice Critic Optimization (BPCO)**, a recipe that combines DPPO, value predictions bounded to the reward range, Monte Carlo value targets, unnormalized policy advantages, and length-adaptive generalized advantage estimation. Because the critic is used only during training, BPCO can also condition it on reward-defining information, such as a reference answer or grading rubric, that is hidden from the policy. Controlled experiments isolate the effect of each design choice. Across mathematical reasoning tasks with models ranging from 1.5B parameters to 30B-A3B mixtures of experts, BPCO improves a strong critic-based baseline consistently, and matches or exceeds a group-based baseline while sampling one response per prompt. The same recipe also improves learning with rubric-based rewards. These results show that a carefully designed critic provides a reliable alternative to group-relative advantage estimation. Code is available at https://github.com/QPHutu/golden_critic.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) highlight the importance of post training techniques for improving reasoning and mathematical ability. Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) has shown promise in this domain by combining group relative advantage estimation, PPO style clipping, and KL regularization. However, its complexity raises the question of whether all components are necessary for fostering reasoning behaviors. We conduct a systematic analysis of GRPO and identify two key findings: (1) incorporating negative feedback is essential training solely on actions above a baseline limits learning; and (2) PPO style constraints, such as policy ratio clipping, are not required to improve mathematical reasoning or performance. Building on these insights, we propose REINFORCE with Group Relative Advantage (RGRA), a simplified variant that retains group relative advantage estimation but removes PPO style clipping and policy ratio terms. Experiments across standard mathematical benchmarks indicate that RGRA has the potential to achieve stronger performance than GRPO. Our results suggest that simpler REINFORCE based approaches can effectively enhance reasoning in LLMs, offering a more transparent and efficient alternative to GRPO.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

Recommender systems widely use implicit feedback such as click data because of its general availability. Although the presence of clicks signals the users' preference to some extent, the lack of such clicks does not necessarily indicate a negative response from the users, as it is possible that the users were not exposed to the items (positive-unlabeled problem). This leads to a difficulty in predicting the users' preferences from implicit feedback. Previous studies addressed the positive-unlabeled problem by uniformly upweighting the loss for the positive feedback data or estimating the confidence of each data having relevance information via the EM-algorithm. However, these methods failed to address the missing-not-at-random problem in which popular or frequently recommended items are more likely to be clicked than other items even if a user does not have a considerable interest in them. To overcome these limitations, we first define an ideal loss function to be optimized to realize recommendations that maximize the relevance and propose an unbiased estimator for the ideal loss. Subsequently, we analyze the variance of the proposed unbiased estimator and further propose a clipped estimator that includes the unbiased estimator as a special case. We demonstrate that the clipped estimator is expected to improve the performance of the recommender system, by considering the bias-variance trade-off. We conduct semi-synthetic and real-world experiments and demonstrate that the proposed method largely outperforms the baselines. In particular, the proposed method works better for rare items that are less frequently observed in the training data. The findings indicate that the proposed method can better achieve the objective of recommending items with the highest relevance.

Most positive and unlabeled data is subject to selection biases. The labeled examples can, for example, be selected from the positive set because they are easier to obtain or more obviously positive. This paper investigates how learning can be ena BHbled in this setting. We propose and theoretically analyze an empirical-risk-based method for incorporating the labeling mechanism. Additionally, we investigate under which assumptions learning is possible when the labeling mechanism is not fully understood and propose a practical method to enable this. Our empirical analysis supports the theoretical results and shows that taking into account the possibility of a selection bias, even when the labeling mechanism is unknown, improves the trained classifiers.

Reinforcement mid-training lets language models learn internal thoughts from unlabeled text, but efficient token-level credit assignment remains challenging. Existing group-relative methods require costly repeated generation. Learned critics offer single-rollout feedback, but accurate return prediction alone does not ensure reliable policy updates. Our analysis shows how training--inference mismatch and PPO clipping prevent a common offset in advantage estimates from cancelling out, introducing additional update drift. We propose , a twin-critic method that calibrates token-level advantages from a single generated trajectory. After warmup and held-out qualification, the critics provide two advantage estimates, combined using action-dependent weights learned through a conditional-moment saddle-point objective. This objective brings the average advantage at each prefix toward zero, while a signal-retention constraint prevents the correction from erasing the learning signal. Sharing information across text positions avoids repeated sampling of each prefix. Theoretically, we characterize optimal mixing under the signal-retention constraint and establish an upper bound on residual mean-induced drift. Experiments show that, compared with the state-of-the-art critic-free method, improves mean benchmark performance by 7.8\% and reduces mean training-step time by up to 63.4\%.

State-of-the-art methods for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation make widespread use of representation learning. Here, the idea is to reduce the variance of the low-sample CATE estimation by a (potentially constrained) low-dimensional representation. However, low-dimensional representations can lose information about the observed confounders and thus lead to bias, because of which the validity of representation learning for CATE estimation is typically violated. In this paper, we propose a new, representation-agnostic framework for estimating bounds on the representation-induced confounding bias that comes from dimensionality reduction (or other constraints on the representations) in CATE estimation. First, we establish theoretically under which conditions CATEs are non-identifiable given low-dimensional (constrained) representations. Second, as our remedy, we propose to perform partial identification of CATEs or, equivalently, aim at estimating of lower and upper bounds of the representation-induced confounding bias. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our bounds in a series of experiments. In sum, our framework is of direct relevance in practice where the validity of CATE estimation is of importance.

We study causal logistic bandits with counterfactual fairness constraints. The causal structure is given through known factual and counterfactual feature maps that share an unknown logistic reward parameter, but the learner observes only factual rewards. Consequently, the directions determining counterfactual feasibility need not be identifiable from the available feedback. The closest prior analyses either omit a coverage condition or impose a comparatively strong one, and do not establish matching lower bounds. We first show that some coverage condition is necessary: without a coverage-type restriction, factually indistinguishable environments with different optimal fair actions force Ω(T) expected joint loss. Under a weaker full-rank condition on the factual covariance pooled across actions, we identify a target-specific information scale V_star that measures the difficulty of estimating rewards and counterfactual effects from factual feedback. We construct worst-case families satisfying this condition on which every policy incurs expected joint loss Ωleft(left[V_starmin{log K,d}right]^{1/3}T^{2/3}right). We also give an explore--then--exploit procedure tuned using V_star and an adaptive algorithm that does not require its value. Both algorithms achieve max{R_T,V_T}=Oleft(left[V_starmin{log K,d}right]^{1/3}T^{2/3}+κd/σ_0^2right), where R_T is regret relative to the best fair action and V_T denotes the cumulative stage-wise positive violations. Thus the upper and lower bounds match in their leading dependence on T, V_star, and min{log K,d}, up to logarithmic factors.

Adaptive computation aims to improve language-model inference by tailoring execution to each input. For layer programs, oracle evaluations use known answers to estimate the potential gain from this flexibility, before a practical selector is available. However, a gain from selection does not by itself explain why the chosen programs help. This study examines this distinction using 32 layer-skipping and repetition programs on two models and 4,413 multiple-choice items. The analysis compares their gains over a fixed action selected without the evaluation prompt with those of input-blind perturbations at the same sites, re-evaluating selections on another prompt. With shared option order, the controls give 10.2-11.8 and 15.6-19.4 percentage points of headroom on Qwen3-4B-Base and Llama-3.1-8B, exceeding the real programs' 9.0 and 10.1 in all three random-direction draws per model. They match answer-change rate only, and the ordering depends on the menu: in post hoc comparisons, real programs lead on Llama's repeat-only menu in every draw. A smaller KL-calibrated comparison, including an input-dependent control, favours real programs in point estimate, with inconclusive corrected tests. Fixed letter offsets produce headroom of similar scale. Rotating options sharply reduces both families' headroom, while leaving positive real-minus-control differences of 1.4-2.3 and 3.7-4.5 points; their magnitudes and statistical support depend on further adjustments and the reference. A supplementary generated-answer test finds that search-selected programs keep a 26.0-point advantage over programs selected for other problems after rewording, without a placebo comparison. These results show that substantial headroom can persist across prompts with shared option order without establishing a benefit specific to the selected layer computation; neither ordering against these controls identifies that benefit.

In many sports, it is commonly believed that the home team has an advantage over the visiting team, known as the home field advantage. Yet its causal effect on team performance is largely unknown. In this paper, we propose a novel causal inference approach to study the causal effect of home field advantage in English Premier League. We develop a hierarchical causal model and show that both league level and team level causal effects are identifiable and can be conveniently estimated. We further develop an inference procedure for the proposed estimators and demonstrate its excellent numerical performance via simulation studies. We implement our method on the 2020-21 English Premier League data and assess the causal effect of home advantage on eleven summary statistics that measure the offensive and defensive performance and referee bias. We find that the home field advantage resides more heavily in offensive statistics than it does in defensive or referee statistics. We also find evidence that teams that had lower rankings retain a higher home field advantage.

Stronger AI agents do not automatically produce better organizations: teams must also learn which work arrangements to retain and when to reconsider them. We propose a modeling specification for recursive organization improvement and evaluate it through an executable checker, a public-record mapping, and controlled simulation. The specification connects actor-visible histories, organizational memory, decision rights, and evidence-carrying change contracts. The mechanism study crosses six decision rules, three memory conditions, and three task environments under fixed resource ceilings. In a stationary environment, cumulative evidence raises balanced evaluation's normalized net value per task from 0.45224 to 0.48007. Repeated reassessment's disadvantage relative to this comparator falls from 0.01702 with reset evidence to 0.00007 with cumulative evidence. A reversal of the best workflow reveals the opposite cost: indefinite retention delays adaptation, while a finite window restores eventual performance at a transition cost. In exploratory controls, matching trial acquisition and label reuse reduces the apparent reassessment gain from 0.00607 to 0.00191. Program replacement adds no stable benefit across the tested reversal times. The study identifies evidence acquisition, reuse, and timely updating as mechanisms that must be separated from evaluator replacement when assessing organizational improvement.

Exploration in environments which differ across episodes has received increasing attention in recent years. Current methods use some combination of global novelty bonuses, computed using the agent's entire training experience, and episodic novelty bonuses, computed using only experience from the current episode. However, the use of these two types of bonuses has been ad-hoc and poorly understood. In this work, we shed light on the behavior of these two types of bonuses through controlled experiments on easily interpretable tasks as well as challenging pixel-based settings. We find that the two types of bonuses succeed in different settings, with episodic bonuses being most effective when there is little shared structure across episodes and global bonuses being effective when more structure is shared. We develop a conceptual framework which makes this notion of shared structure precise by considering the variance of the value function across contexts, and which provides a unifying explanation of our empirical results. We furthermore find that combining the two bonuses can lead to more robust performance across different degrees of shared structure, and investigate different algorithmic choices for defining and combining global and episodic bonuses based on function approximation. This results in an algorithm which sets a new state of the art across 16 tasks from the MiniHack suite used in prior work, and also performs robustly on Habitat and Montezuma's Revenge.

Longitudinal observational data are often subject to informative missingness. For example, in healthcare research using electronic health records, covariates and outcomes are measured only when patients interact with the healthcare system. Whether these data are observed usually depends on the unobserved variable values themselves, introducing a common form of data missing not at random. We develop identification and estimation methods for the effects of longitudinal modified treatment policies under a self-censoring model which explicitly models this dependence. We consider effects of treatments that can be modified only at measurement times (e.g., interactions with the heathcare system). We study two settings: one in which the observed history suffices for treatment confounding control, and another in which confounder control requires covariate values that were not measured at missed visits. In both settings, we combine longitudinal causal identification with shadow-variable conditional moment restrictions to obtain recursive identification formulas for the counterfactual outcome mean. We derive gradients of the pathwise derivatives and second-order remainder expansions, and use these results to construct estimators that accommodate machine learning for nuisance-function estimation. Under suitable product-rate conditions and cross-fitting, the estimators are asymptotically linear and permit root-n inference, including simultaneous inference across outcome times. We also describe conditional-moment learning and ensemble approaches for estimating the nuisance functions required by our approach, together with a pool-and-smooth strategy that borrows information across sparsely measured outcomes.

Most reported gains from agent-optimization methods are one-shot: an agent is optimized against a fixed benchmark and the resulting improvement is reported as if it were a stable property of the method. This does not test the setting that matters for deployed agents, where optimization is applied recursively as new failures and new tasks appear over time. The central question this raises is whether optimizer-driven gains compound: after an agent has been optimized once, can it be optimized again on newly arrived tasks without eroding the gains the first round produced? We study this question with a two-phase continual-learning evaluation built from hard tasks in Terminal-Bench 2.0, comparing three approaches to agent-harness optimization (GEPA, Meta Harness, and RELAI's Verifiable Continual Learning, RELAI-VCL) under identical optimization budgets. All three methods improve over the baseline agent in the conventional, static, single-phase setting. However, once new tasks are introduced, the methods diverge sharply: GEPA's optimized agent transfers below the unoptimized baseline, Meta Harness transfers well but fails to improve further once given a second optimization budget, and RELAI-VCL is the only method that both transfers positively to unseen tasks and continues improving after those tasks are folded into the optimization objective, reaching the highest pass rate at every evaluated stage and the highest lifelong average pass rate overall (76.4% vs. 66.0% for GEPA, 64.6% for Meta Harness, and 58.7% for the baseline). Our key observation was that optimization gains compounded only when regression control was built into the optimization loop, providing an inductive bias against shortcut solutions that fail to generalize.

Reinforcement learning for agentic large language models (LLMs) typically relies on a sparse, trajectory-level outcome reward, making it difficult to evaluate the contribution of individual tool-calls within multi-turn interactions. Existing approaches to such process credit assignment either depend on separate external process reward models that introduce additional consumption, or tree-based structural rollout that merely redistributes the outcome signal while constraining trajectory diversity. A promising alternative leverages the per-turn change in the policy's predicted probability of the ground-truth, termed Information Gain (IG), as an intrinsic process signal without an external evaluator. However, prior work on leveraging IG signals within the RL training loop faces three systematic challenges: normalizing across turns that face heterogeneous positional contexts can distort the relative standing of individual turns, accumulating a variable number of terms causes advantage magnitudes to drift with trajectory depth, and a fixed clipping range governs policy updates identically for turns with vastly different IG signals. In this paper, we propose A^2TGPO (Agentic Turn-Group Policy Optimization with Adaptive Turn-level Clipping), which retains IG as the intrinsic signal but re-designs how it is normalized, accumulated, and consumed: (i) turn-group normalization: normalizes IG within each (prompt, turn-index) group so that each turn is compared only against peers at the same interaction depth; (ii) variance-rescaled discounted accumulation: divides cumulative normalized IG by square root of accumulated terms to keep advantage magnitudes comparable across turn positions; and (iii) adaptive turn-level clipping: modulates each turn's clipping range based on its normalized IG, widening the update region for informative turns and narrowing it for uninformative ones.

Writing an ad text that attracts people and persuades them to click or act is essential for the success of search engine advertising. Therefore, ad creators must consider various aspects of advertising appeals (A^3) such as the price, product features, and quality. However, products and services exhibit unique effective A^3 for different industries. In this work, we focus on exploring the effective A^3 for different industries with the aim of assisting the ad creation process. To this end, we created a dataset of advertising appeals and used an existing model that detects various aspects for ad texts. Our experiments demonstrated that different industries have their own effective A^3 and that the identification of the A^3 contributes to the estimation of advertising performance.

We consider an extension to the classic position auctions in which sponsored creatives can be added within AI generated content rather than shown in predefined slots. New challenges arise from the natural requirement that sponsored creatives should smoothly fit into the context. With the help of advanced LLM technologies, it becomes viable to accurately estimate the benefits of adding each individual sponsored creatives into each potential positions within the AI generated content by properly taking the context into account. Therefore, we assume one click-through rate estimation for each position-creative pair, rather than one uniform estimation for each sponsored creative across all positions in classic settings. As a result, the underlying optimization becomes a general matching problem, thus the substitution effects should be treated more carefully compared to standard position auction settings, where the slots are independent with each other. In this work, we formalize a concrete mathematical model of the extended position auction problem and study the welfare-maximization and revenue-maximization mechanism design problem. Formally, we consider two different user behavior models and solve the mechanism design problems therein respectively. For the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, which is order-insensitive, we can efficiently implement the optimal mechanisms. For the cascade model, which is order-sensitive, we provide approximately optimal solutions.

We consider identification of average treatment effects on the treated (ATT) within the difference-in-differences (DiD) framework in the presence of endogenous sample selection. First, we establish that the usual DiD estimand fails to recover meaningful treatment effects, even if selection and treatment assignment are independent. Next, we partially identify the ATT for individuals who are always observed post-treatment regardless of their treatment status, and derive bounds on this parameter under different sets of assumptions about the relationship between sample selection and treatment assignment. Extensions to the repeated cross-section and two-by-two comparisons in the staggered adoption case are explored. Furthermore, we provide identification results for the ATT of three additional empirically relevant latent groups by incorporating outcome mean dominance assumptions which have intuitive appeal in applications. Finally, two empirical illustrations demonstrate the approach's usefulness by revisiting (i) the effect of a job training program on earnings(Calonico & Smith, 2017) and (ii) the effect of a working-from-home policy on employee performance (Bloom, Liang, Roberts, & Ying, 2015).

Large Language Models (LLMs) can self-improve through reinforcement learning, where they generate trajectories to explore and discover better solutions. However, this exploration process is computationally expensive, often forcing current methods to assign limited exploration budgets to each task. This uniform allocation creates problematic edge cases: easy tasks consistently succeed while difficult tasks consistently fail, both producing zero gradients during training updates for the widely used Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO). We address this problem from the lens of exploration budget allocation. Viewing each task's exploration as an "item" with a distinct "value" and "cost", we establish a connection to the classical knapsack problem. This formulation allows us to derive an optimal assignment rule that adaptively distributes resources based on the model's current learning status. When applied to GRPO, our method increases the effective ratio of non-zero policy gradients by 20-40% during training. Acting as a computational "free lunch", our approach could reallocate exploration budgets from tasks where learning is saturated to those where it is most impactful. This enables significantly larger budgets (e.g., 93 rollouts) for especially challenging problems, which would be computationally prohibitive under a uniform allocation. These improvements translate to meaningful gains on mathematical reasoning benchmarks, with average improvements of 2-4 points and peak gains of 9 points on specific tasks. Notably, achieving comparable performance with traditional homogeneous allocation would require about 2x the computational resources.

How strong can an AlphaZero-style chess system become under limited training compute when its entire learning loop is engineered for efficiency? We train from random initialization through searched self-play on a single eight-GPU node for 2.5 days. The resulting 6.32-million-parameter model reaches 3,251 benchmark Elo [3,206, 3,297] at 100,000 searches per move (estimated at under five seconds of thinking time) against a fixed-node Stockfish 13 ladder. The run ingests 3.25 million completed games, involves an estimated 100 billion search simulations, and makes 836.6 million training presentations. We investigate search allocation, replay and restart-state selection, policy representation, progressive model sizing, quantized inference, and throughput engineering. Alongside the retained design, we document plausible alternatives that failed to improve the complete learning loop or did not justify their cost. The reported strength is a result of the integrated system, not an isolated Elo gain attributable to any single choice.

We consider a fair division model in which agents have positive, zero and negative utilities for items. For this model, we analyse one existing fairness property - EFX - and three new and related properties - EFX_0, EFX^3 and EF1^3 - in combination with Pareto-optimality. With general utilities, we give a modified version of an existing algorithm for computing an EF1^3 allocation. With -alpha/0/alpha utilities, this algorithm returns an EFX^3 and PO allocation. With absolute identical utilities, we give a new algorithm for an EFX and PO allocation. With -alpha/0/beta utilities, this algorithm also returns such an allocation. We report some new impossibility results as well.

Improving every agent in an LLM-based multi-agent system can be prohibitively costly, making it important to identify which agent should be prioritized to achieve the greatest system-level gain with limited resources. Failure attribution can inform this decision, but an agent's responsibility for failures does not directly reveal the system-level gains achievable by improving it. We therefore introduce IF-MAP, an influence-function-inspired method for identifying agents with high potential for system-level improvement. For each agent, IF-MAP measures end-to-end loss changes under controlled semantic prompt perturbations, fits a regularized local response model in a low-dimensional prompt-embedding subspace, and uses the estimated response norm as a priority score. This black-box procedure requires no access to model parameters or gradients and produces agent priorities that can guide subsequent improvement effort. We evaluate IF-MAP across six multi-agent workflows spanning code generation, question answering, and mathematical reasoning, using the same priorities for prompt optimization and model upgrades. Optimizing the selected agents' prompts achieves a macro-average gain of 3.81 percentage points, compared with 1.85 for uniform agent selection. Across five target models, upgrading the selected agents yields macro-average gains of 7.62-16.42 percentage points, compared with 3.81-8.62 for uniform agent selection. Despite its probing overhead, IF-MAP reduces Qwen3-8B and DeepSeek-V3.2 token use by 74.2% and 35.2%, respectively, relative to optimizing every agent, and reduces target-model tokens by 63.6-64.9% relative to upgrading every agent. These results support the use of IF-MAP to identify promising agents and direct improvement effort toward greater end-to-end performance gains.

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.

In observational studies, balancing covariates in different treatment groups is essential to estimate treatment effects. One of the most commonly used methods for such purposes is weighting. The performance of this class of methods usually depends on strong regularity conditions for the underlying model, which might not hold in practice. In this paper, we investigate weighting methods from a functional estimation perspective and argue that the weights needed for covariate balancing could differ from those needed for treatment effects estimation under low regularity conditions. Motivated by this observation, we introduce a new framework of weighting that directly targets the treatment effects estimation. Unlike existing methods, the resulting estimator for a treatment effect under this new framework is a simple kernel-based U-statistic after applying a data-driven transformation to the observed covariates. We characterize the theoretical properties of the new estimators of treatment effects under a nonparametric setting and show that they are able to work robustly under low regularity conditions. The new framework is also applied to several numerical examples to demonstrate its practical merits.

Preference learning algorithms (e.g., RLHF and DPO) are frequently used to steer LLMs to produce generations that are more preferred by humans, but our understanding of their inner workings is still limited. In this work, we study the conventional wisdom that preference learning trains models to assign higher likelihoods to more preferred outputs than less preferred outputs, measured via ranking accuracy. Surprisingly, we find that most state-of-the-art preference-tuned models achieve a ranking accuracy of less than 60% on common preference datasets. We furthermore derive the idealized ranking accuracy that a preference-tuned LLM would achieve if it optimized the DPO or RLHF objective perfectly. We demonstrate that existing models exhibit a significant alignment gap -- i.e., a gap between the observed and idealized ranking accuracies. We attribute this discrepancy to the DPO objective, which is empirically and theoretically ill-suited to fix even mild ranking errors in the reference model, and derive a simple and efficient formula for quantifying the difficulty of learning a given preference datapoint. Finally, we demonstrate that ranking accuracy strongly correlates with the empirically popular win rate metric when the model is close to the reference model used in the objective, shedding further light on the differences between on-policy (e.g., RLHF) and off-policy (e.g., DPO) preference learning algorithms.

In the absence of extensive human-annotated data for complex reasoning tasks, self-improvement -- where models are trained on their own outputs -- has emerged as a primary method for enhancing performance. However, the critical factors underlying the mechanism of these iterative self-improving methods remain poorly understood, such as under what conditions self-improvement is effective, and what are the bottlenecks in the current iterations. In this work, we identify and propose methods to monitor two pivotal factors in this iterative process: (1) the model's ability to generate sufficiently diverse responses (exploration); and (2) the effectiveness of external rewards in distinguishing high-quality candidates from lower-quality ones (exploitation). Using mathematical reasoning as a case study, we begin with a quantitative analysis to track the dynamics of exploration and exploitation, discovering that a model's exploratory capabilities rapidly deteriorate over iterations, and the effectiveness of exploiting external rewards diminishes as well. Motivated by these findings, we introduce B-STaR, a Self-Taught Reasoning framework that autonomously adjusts configurations across iterations to Balance exploration and exploitation, thereby optimizing the self-improving effectiveness based on the current policy model and available rewards. Our experiments on mathematical reasoning, coding, and commonsense reasoning demonstrate that B-STaR not only enhances the model's exploratory capabilities throughout training but also achieves a more effective balance between exploration and exploitation, leading to superior performance.

Transfer learning with a small amount of target data is an effective and common approach to adapting a pre-trained model to distribution shifts. In some situations, target data labels may be expensive to obtain, so we may only have access to a limited number of target data points. To make the most of a very small target dataset, we propose a lightweight, sample-efficient approach that learns a diverse set of features and adapts to a target distribution by interpolating these features. Our approach, Project and Probe (Pro^2), first learns a linear projection that maps a pre-trained embedding onto orthogonal directions while being predictive of labels in the source dataset. The goal of this step is to learn a variety of predictive features, so that at least some of them remain useful after distribution shift. Pro^2 then learns a linear classifier on top of these projected features using a small target dataset. Theoretically, we find that Pro^2 results in more sample-efficient generalization by inducing a favorable bias-variance tradeoff. Our experiments on four datasets, with multiple distribution shift settings for each, show that Pro^2 improves performance by 5-15% when given limited target data compared to prior methods such as standard linear probing.

Recursive self-improvement (RSI) describes a system that improves not only its behavior but also the process by which it improves. Recent digital agents test this idea by rewriting their own code and checking each version with executable tests. Bringing these mechanisms into the physical world requires learning from partial observations through costly trials, while accounting for changing operating conditions and potentially irreversible consequences. We position RSI within robot learning and trace pathways from improving robot capabilities to improving the processes that generate them. We examine how physical experience can strengthen these improvement mechanisms and when the resulting gains can support further self-improvement of the mechanisms themselves. Gains carry forward only when feedback addresses remaining learning needs, the receiving component can use the change, its value survives changes in tasks or hardware, and continued practice remains safe and affordable. Existing studies, concentrated in manipulation, support behavioral improvement, benefits to later learning, and procedure improvement. Some systems also change the improver's knowledge or tools, but the physical studies reviewed here have yet to isolate gains attributable to recursion. We synthesize these findings into evaluation principles and research directions for machines that, trial by trial, safely improve the way they improve.

Recent machine learning papers often report 1-2 percentage point improvements from a single run on a benchmark. These gains are highly sensitive to random seeds, data ordering, and implementation details, yet are rarely accompanied by uncertainty estimates or significance tests. It is therefore unclear when a reported +1-2% reflects a real algorithmic advance versus noise. We revisit this problem under realistic compute budgets, where only a few runs are affordable. We propose a simple, PC-friendly evaluation protocol based on paired multi-seed runs, bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals, and a sign-flip permutation test on per-seed deltas. The protocol is intentionally conservative and is meant as a guardrail against over-claiming. We instantiate it on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-10N, and AG News using synthetic no-improvement, small-gain, and medium-gain scenarios. Single runs and unpaired t-tests often suggest significant gains for 0.6-2.0 point improvements, especially on text. With only three seeds, our paired protocol never declares significance in these settings. We argue that such conservative evaluation is a safer default for small gains under tight budgets.

Distributed reinforcement learning trains on data from stale, buggy, or mismatched actors, producing actions with high surprisal (negative log-probability) under the learner's policy. The core difficulty is not surprising data per se, but negative learning from surprising data. High-surprisal failures can dominate the update direction despite carrying little useful signal, while high-surprisal successes reveal opportunities the current policy would otherwise miss. The Delightful Policy Gradient (DG) separates these cases by gating each update with delight, the product of advantage and surprisal, suppressing rare failures and amplifying rare successes without behavior probabilities. Under contaminated sampling, the cosine similarity between the standard policy gradient and the true gradient collapses, while DG's grows as the policy improves. No sign-blind reweighting, including exact importance sampling, can reproduce this effect. On MNIST with simulated staleness, DG without off-policy correction outperforms importance-weighted PG with exact behavior probabilities. On a transformer sequence task with staleness, actor bugs, reward corruption, and rare discovery, DG achieves roughly 10{times} lower error. When all four frictions act simultaneously, its compute advantage is order-of-magnitude and grows with task complexity.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) improves language-model reasoning, but GRPO-style optimization remains prone to collapse. We analyse this instability through token-level gradient dynamics, deriving a taxonomy that predicts how updates affect next-token probabilities and entropy. The taxonomy shows that stability depends jointly on the advantage sign and token distribution under the current policy. Motivated by this finding, we propose Winner Advantage Policy Optimization (WAPO), a simple online clipped policy-gradient objective that updates only on positive-advantage completions. Across mathematical reasoning and multi-hop QA benchmarks, WAPO improves training stability and matches or outperforms baselines across multiple model families. Full code can be found at https://github.com/layer6ai-labs/wapo.

We consider the task of evaluating policies of algorithmic resource allocation through randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Such policies are tasked with optimizing the utilization of limited intervention resources, with the goal of maximizing the benefits derived. Evaluation of such allocation policies through RCTs proves difficult, notwithstanding the scale of the trial, because the individuals' outcomes are inextricably interlinked through resource constraints controlling the policy decisions. Our key contribution is to present a new estimator leveraging our proposed novel concept, that involves retrospective reshuffling of participants across experimental arms at the end of an RCT. We identify conditions under which such reassignments are permissible and can be leveraged to construct counterfactual trials, whose outcomes can be accurately ascertained, for free. We prove theoretically that such an estimator is more accurate than common estimators based on sample means -- we show that it returns an unbiased estimate and simultaneously reduces variance. We demonstrate the value of our approach through empirical experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic as well as real case study data and show improved estimation accuracy across the board.

Neural ranking models (NRMs) have become one of the most important techniques in information retrieval (IR). Due to the limitation of relevance labels, the training of NRMs heavily relies on negative sampling over unlabeled data. In general machine learning scenarios, it has shown that training with hard negatives (i.e., samples that are close to positives) could lead to better performance. Surprisingly, we find opposite results from our empirical studies in IR. When sampling top-ranked results (excluding the labeled positives) as negatives from a stronger retriever, the performance of the learned NRM becomes even worse. Based on our investigation, the superficial reason is that there are more false negatives (i.e., unlabeled positives) in the top-ranked results with a stronger retriever, which may hurt the training process; The root is the existence of pooling bias in the dataset constructing process, where annotators only judge and label very few samples selected by some basic retrievers. Therefore, in principle, we can formulate the false negative issue in training NRMs as learning from labeled datasets with pooling bias. To solve this problem, we propose a novel Coupled Estimation Technique (CET) that learns both a relevance model and a selection model simultaneously to correct the pooling bias for training NRMs. Empirical results on three retrieval benchmarks show that NRMs trained with our technique can achieve significant gains on ranking effectiveness against other baseline strategies.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

We study income taxation when an AI agent implements economically relevant choices through a rule hidden from the government. Alongside unobserved productive ability, this hidden preference-to-execution mapping creates double unobservability: the same observable tax-base response can carry different welfare consequences. We call the resulting income welfare-opaque. Our constructions show that tax-base statistics can coincide while reform welfare effects differ, even when mechanical welfare weights are identical. We derive an optimal-tax condition that adds a response-weighted execution wedge to the familiar sufficient statistics. A higher marginal rate gains a corrective benefit under local over-execution and an additional cost under local under-execution. Observing the wedge identifies the welfare effect of a marginal reform at the prevailing schedule; bounds on it deliver bounds on that effect. A controlled laboratory compares 4,500 model runs across five AI engines. Faithful delegation selects the score maximizer in essentially all runs. Conflicted objectives produce heterogeneous responses: Claude largely preserves the score maximizer, GLM moves predominantly downward, and GPT-mini and Qwen show concentrated lower-tail increases. Qwen also makes substantial downward adjustments. Different engines locate their departures at different points and in different directions of the designed distribution. Explicit scores align model rankings; formula-based objective instructions yield more uneven agreement. Qwen shows a clear positive tax-by-objective interaction, but its direction does not generalize across engines and the pooled sign depends on its inclusion. The analysis identifies execution information as a complement to conventional tax-base statistics.

This paper shows that two commonly used evaluation metrics for generative models, the Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID) and the Inception Score (IS), are biased -- the expected value of the score computed for a finite sample set is not the true value of the score. Worse, the paper shows that the bias term depends on the particular model being evaluated, so model A may get a better score than model B simply because model A's bias term is smaller. This effect cannot be fixed by evaluating at a fixed number of samples. This means all comparisons using FID or IS as currently computed are unreliable. We then show how to extrapolate the score to obtain an effectively bias-free estimate of scores computed with an infinite number of samples, which we term textrm{FID}_infty and textrm{IS}_infty. In turn, this effectively bias-free estimate requires good estimates of scores with a finite number of samples. We show that using Quasi-Monte Carlo integration notably improves estimates of FID and IS for finite sample sets. Our extrapolated scores are simple, drop-in replacements for the finite sample scores. Additionally, we show that using low discrepancy sequence in GAN training offers small improvements in the resulting generator.

Binary classification involves predicting the label of an instance based on whether the model score for the positive class exceeds a threshold chosen based on the application requirements (e.g., maximizing recall for a precision bound). However, model scores are often not aligned with the true positivity rate. This is especially true when the training involves a differential sampling across classes or there is distributional drift between train and test settings. In this paper, we provide theoretical analysis and empirical evidence of the dependence of model score estimation bias on both uncertainty and score itself. Further, we formulate the decision boundary selection in terms of both model score and uncertainty, prove that it is NP-hard, and present algorithms based on dynamic programming and isotonic regression. Evaluation of the proposed algorithms on three real-world datasets yield 25%-40% gain in recall at high precision bounds over the traditional approach of using model score alone, highlighting the benefits of leveraging uncertainty.

In personalized marketing, uplift models estimate incremental effects by modeling how customer behavior changes under alternative treatments. However, real-world data often exhibit biases - such as selection bias, spillover effects, and unobserved confounding - which adversely affect both estimation accuracy and metric validity. Despite the importance of bias-aware assessment, a lack of systematic studies persists. To bridge this gap, we design a systematic benchmarking framework. Unlike standard predictive tasks, real-world uplift datasets lack counterfactual ground truth, rendering direct metric validation infeasible. Therefore, a semi-synthetic approach serves as a critical enabler for systematic benchmarking, effectively bridging the gap by retaining real-world feature dependencies while providing the ground truth needed to isolate structural biases. Our investigations reveal that: (i) uplift targeting and prediction can manifest as distinct objectives, where proficiency in one does not ensure efficacy in the other; (ii) while many models exhibit inconsistent performance under diverse biases, TARNet shows notable robustness, providing insights for subsequent model design; (iii) evaluation metric stability is linked to mathematical alignment with the ATE, suggesting that ATE-approximating metrics yield more consistent model rankings under structural data imperfections. These findings suggest the need for more robust uplift models and metrics. Code will be released upon acceptance.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a standard recipe for improving large language models (LLMs) on reasoning tasks, with Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) widely used in practice. Yet GRPO wastes substantial compute on negative groups: groups in which no sampled response is correct yield zero advantage and thus no gradient. We ask whether negative groups can be leveraged without extra supervision. Starting from a maximum-likelihood (MLE) objective in reward modeling, we show that the MLE gradient is equivalent to a policy gradient for a modified value function. This value function adds a confidence-weighted penalty on incorrect responses, imposing larger penalties on more confident mistakes. We refer to this as Likelihood Estimation with Negative Samples (LENS). LENS modifies GRPO to assign non-zero, confidence-dependent rewards to incorrect generations, making negative groups informative and converting previously wasted samples into useful gradient updates. On the MATH benchmark with Llama-3.1-8B and Qwen-2.5-3B, the proposed variant consistently outperforms GRPO baseline, with significant gains on harder items. These results demonstrate a principled and practical way to "rescue" negative groups, improving efficiency and performance in RLVR.

Large reasoning models (LRMs) aim to solve diverse and complex problems through structured reasoning. Recent advances in group-based policy optimization methods have shown promise in enabling stable advantage estimation without reliance on process-level annotations. However, these methods rely on advantage gaps induced by high-quality samples within the same batch, which makes the training process fragile and inefficient when intra-group advantages collapse under challenging tasks. To address these problems, we propose a reinforcement learning mechanism named \textbf{R^3} that along three directions: (1) a cross-context \underline{\textbf{R}eplay} strategy that maintains the intra-group advantage by recalling valuable examples from historical trajectories of the same query, (2) an in-context self-\underline{\textbf{R}eflection} mechanism enabling models to refine outputs by leveraging past failures, and (3) a structural entropy \underline{\textbf{R}anking reward}, which assigns relative rewards to truncated or failed samples by ranking responses based on token-level entropy patterns, capturing both local exploration and global stability. We implement our method on Deepseek-R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B and train it on the DeepscaleR-40k in the math domain. Experiments demonstrate our method achieves SoTA performance on several math benchmarks, representing significant improvements and fewer reasoning tokens over the base models. Code and model will be released.

Agent performance depends on both reasoning ability and the environment in which it acts. We study test-time AI-for-AI, asking how a Builder can learn to construct better execution environments for a Target while both models' weights remain fixed. To make the Builder's experience reusable, we introduce Meta-Skill: principles specifying when support is needed and what resources to provide. The Builder learns these principles from Target's execution feedback on the development set, then uses the frozen skill bank to construct harnesses for unseen tasks. Across Harness-Bench and NewtonBench, full-bank meta-skills improve macro-average performance by 8.95 percentage points over no-skill construction, and 12.02 points over direct delivery of the same bank to the Target. These results highlight the value of translating experience into executable support. Gains when the same model serves both roles further suggest a path to system level self-improvement through learning to build better environments.

Sharp bounds on two potential-outcome means need not combine into sharp bounds on their difference. We characterize exactly when composition is guaranteed across environments sharing a joint potential-outcome law. For binary treatment and outcome, fix strict selection-probability bounds and interior treatment propensities. Subtracting the full model's sharp mean intervals gives sharp average-treatment-effect bounds for every compatible observed law if and only if the absolute selection bounds coincide across environments. Under this alignment, the complete mean region is rectangular; its endpoints and attaining causal models require O(K) arithmetic operations for K environments. For every mismatch, failure occurs on a relatively open set of positive observed tables at the prescribed propensities and persists under small joint drift. We give computable perturbation certificates and an exact family whose gap is first order in the mismatch. A separate finite-confounding family shows when the lost joint information changes an identified causal sign. These results distinguish local marginal sharpness from joint attainability after combining environments.

Multi-reward reinforcement learning trains large language models to satisfy multiple behavioral objectives simultaneously. Reward-wise normalization, as used in GDPO, preserves reward-specific relative information within rollout groups, but different objectives can still exhibit uneven learning progress. We study this behavior through advantage energy, the sum of a reward's squared advantages over a batch. Under idealized GDPO normalization, we show that this energy is proportional to active-group density: the fraction of rollout groups in which the reward provides nonzero relative advantages. This reveals a residual batch-level signal imbalance and provides a basis for calibrating reward contributions. Based on this relation, we propose Density-Aware Reward Aggregation (DARA). We derive an inverse-square-root density correction that gives greater weight to signals from less frequently active rewards. DARA computes its weights from each rollout batch, adapting to changes in reward activity throughout training without modifying the underlying policy optimization objective. Experiments on tool calling and mathematical reasoning show that DARA learns the targeted behaviors faster than GDPO, reaching high format compliance in up to 26% fewer training steps on tool calling and near-saturated length compliance in up to 65% fewer steps on mathematical reasoning, while remaining competitive in final performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/zhaihaotian/DARA.

Large language models are increasingly used as decision aids whose probability judgments shape downstream choices. Whether those judgments carry a systematic directional tilt has been hard to detect: calibration metrics aggregate unsigned errors, and naturalistic uncertainty offers no ground-truth probability. When an LLM rates a startup's success at 70% but its failure at 15%, the missing 15 points expose a distortion no aggregate score flags. We introduce OptimismBench, which detects directional bias with inverted pairs: each scenario elicits both P(success) and P(failure), and asymmetry between the two framings yields a signed bias score without ground truth. Across 16 models from 8 providers, fourteen are optimistic; pessimism appears only in Anthropic's frontier tier. Eleven matched base-versus-chat pairs across four families show post-training sets the sign of the bias, with opposite shifts in different families. The pattern survives prompt, temperature, perspective, and self-debiasing ablations. A seventeen-model six-language comparison further shows model identity dominates language, with inter-model variance at 4.7x inter-language variance. We release 3,870 items across 10 languages for per-model directional-bias auditing. When alignment makes a model more helpful, it also tilts its probabilities; downstream pipelines inherit the tilt by default.

A treatment may affect some individuals while leaving others unaffected. We study the reach of treatment effects by asking how large an unaffected covariate region could be. We develop efficient local randomization tests over nearest-neighbour regions to construct a finite-sample valid upper confidence bound for the size of the largest zero-effect region. A small bound provides evidence that treatment effects extend broadly across covariate values by ruling out large zero-effect regions. Under a general outcome model, we characterize how the size of the bound depends on the number of affected units, the size of their treatment effects, and the geometry of the true zero-effect set. We show that, when region size is measured as a sample fraction, the excess of the upper confidence bound over the true size decreases to zero at a minimax optimal rate up to a logarithmic factor. Numerical simulations assess the coverage, power and computational efficiency of our method. Applications to voter-turnout, HIV clinical-trial, and AI-assisted writing data illustrate how our method rules out large zero-effect regions across the covariates of interest.

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives reliable probabilities since the ground-truth probabilities are not available. The win probability estimation model for esports, which calculates the win probability under a certain game state, is also one of the fields being actively studied in probability estimation. However, most of the previous works evaluated their models using accuracy, a metric that only can measure the performance of discrimination. In this work, we firstly investigate the Brier score and the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) as a replacement of accuracy used as a performance evaluation metric for win probability estimation models in esports field. Based on the analysis, we propose a novel metric called Balance score which is a simple yet effective metric in terms of six good properties that probability estimation metric should have. Under the general condition, we also found that the Balance score can be an effective approximation of the true expected calibration error which has been imperfectly approximated by ECE using the binning technique. Extensive evaluations using simulation studies and real game snapshot data demonstrate the promising potential to adopt the proposed metric not only for the win probability estimation model for esports but also for evaluating general probability estimation models.

For a parametric model of distributions, the closest distribution in the model to the true distribution located outside the model is considered. Measuring the closeness between two distributions with the Kullback-Leibler (K-L) divergence, the closest distribution is called the "information projection." The estimation risk of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is defined as the expectation of K-L divergence between the information projection and the predictive distribution with plugged-in MLE. Here, the asymptotic expansion of the risk is derived up to n^{-2}-order, and the sufficient condition on the risk for the Bayes error rate between the true distribution and the information projection to be lower than a specified value is investigated. Combining these results, the "p-n criterion" is proposed, which determines whether the MLE is sufficiently close to the information projection for the given model and sample. In particular, the criterion for an exponential family model is relatively simple and can be used for a complex model with no explicit form of normalizing constant. This criterion can constitute a solution to the sample size or model acceptance problem. Use of the p-n criteria is demonstrated for two practical datasets. The relationship between the results and information criteria is also studied.

AI agents are beginning to automate research and development across the AI stack, from improving training efficiency to optimizing inference. A natural next step is to improve the research efficiency of the agents themselves. When an AI research agent's own code is the object of optimization, each accepted rewrite becomes the agent that the next round edits. We refer to this loop as recursive self-improvement. Its significance lies in a long-standing trend, in which increased cumulative spending on R&D yields diminishing returns. Sustained self-improvement offers a way to counter this trend. We present AIDE^2, a system that implements this loop for a frontier AI research agent. It proposes changes to its own code, benchmarks modified versions of itself on a suite of AI R&D tasks, and keeps the changes that perform best on hidden evaluations. In an autonomous 8-day run, AIDE^2 discovered seven successive improvements, ranging from a new search policy to memory mechanisms that compress and manage the agent's growing context. These gains generalize to four held-out benchmarks spanning machine learning engineering, heuristic algorithm engineering, and physics-based weather forecasting, the last of which is out of distribution from the selection tasks. On all four, the strongest discovered agent matches or exceeds a human-engineered production research agent that ranks among the strongest on FML-Bench. On a separate held-out task family, the discovered agents also exhibit reduced reward hacking, a property the loop never explicitly optimized for: the rate falls from 55% to 32% during the run, 7 percentage points below the human-engineered agent. Together, these results show that an AI research agent can improve its own research efficiency through recursive self-improvement, and that these gains transfer to tasks and domains the loop never encountered.

We study regressions with multiple treatments and a set of controls that is flexible enough to purge omitted variable bias. We show that these regressions generally fail to estimate convex averages of heterogeneous treatment effects -- instead, estimates of each treatment's effect are contaminated by non-convex averages of the effects of other treatments. We discuss three estimation approaches that avoid such contamination bias, including the targeting of easiest-to-estimate weighted average effects. A re-analysis of nine empirical applications finds economically and statistically meaningful contamination bias in observational studies; contamination bias in experimental studies is more limited due to smaller variability in propensity scores.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Self-improving LLM systems propose changes to themselves and keep those that score better on a small evaluation set. We treat this keep-if-better step as selection under measurement noise, model the correlated errors of the candidates in a single decision, and study empirically what happens when the evaluation set is reused. In runs where Qwen models rewrite their own instructions and every candidate is also scored on 600 held-out items, most proposals after the first are harmful, and the model gives the size of the winner's curse of a generation's best candidate. With a prior from a separate pilot, it matches the average overstatement of first-generation commits in native loops, though not setting by setting. In a pre-registered study, the final selection-set score of greedy loops exceeded held-out accuracy by 13 to 20 points with 16 selection items and by 1 to 5 points with 256. Held-out gains grew with the selection set on TREC but not on GSM8K, and the tested acceptance rules did not beat greedy acceptance over whole runs. Gains measured on the selection set also exceeded held-out gains when a current model refined a competent instruction, and in the validation scores of GEPA and MIPROv2. Scoring the starting and the current instruction on 64 items never used for selection removes the average bias of a loop's reported gain, but single estimates remain off by about 6 points. Self-improvement studies should report held-out gains with their uncertainty.

Traditional direct estimation methods are not efficient for domains of a survey population with small sample sizes. To estimate the domain proportions, we combine the direct estimators and the regression-synthetic estimators based on domain-level auxiliary information. For the case of small true proportions, we introduce the design-based linear combination that is a robust alternative to the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) based on the Fay--Herriot model. We also consider an adaptive procedure optimizing a sample-size-dependent composite estimator, which depends on a single parameter for all domains. We imitate the Lithuanian Labor Force Survey, where we estimate the proportions of the unemployed and employed in municipalities. We show where the considered design-based compositions and estimators of their mean square errors are competitive for EBLUP and its accuracy estimation.

Reinforcement learning algorithms such as GRPO have driven recent advances in large language model (LLM) reasoning. While scaling the number of rollouts stabilizes training, existing approaches suffer from limited exploration on challenging prompts and leave informative feedback signals underexploited, due to context-independent rollout allocation across prompts (e.g., generating 16 rollouts per prompt) and relying heavily on sparse rewards. This paper presents XRPO(eXplore - eXploit GRPO), a unified framework that recasts policy optimization through the principled lens of rollout exploration-exploitation. To enhance exploration, XRPO introduces a mathematically grounded rollout allocator that adaptively prioritizes prompts with higher potential for uncertainty reduction. It further addresses stagnation on zero-reward prompts through an in-context seeding strategy that injects curated exemplars, steering the model into more difficult reasoning trajectories. To strengthen exploitation, XRPO develops a group-relative, novelty-aware advantage sharpening mechanism that leverages sequence likelihoods to amplify low-probability yet correct responses, thereby extending the policy's reach beyond sparse rewards. Experiments across diverse math and coding benchmarks on both reasoning and non-reasoning models demonstrate that XRPO outperforms existing advances (e.g., GRPO and GSPO) up to 4% pass@1 and 6% cons@32, while accelerating training convergence by up to 2.7X.

Recent advances have demonstrated that integrating reinforcement learning with rule-based rewards can significantly enhance the reasoning capabilities of large language models, even without supervised fine-tuning. However, prevalent reinforcement learning algorithms such as GRPO and its variants like DAPO, suffer from a coarse granularity issue when computing the advantage. Specifically, they compute rollout-level advantages that assign identical values to every token within a sequence, failing to capture token-specific contributions and hindering effective learning. To address this limitation, we propose Key-token Advantage Estimation (KTAE) - a novel algorithm that estimates fine-grained, token-level advantages without introducing additional models. KTAE leverages the correctness of sampled rollouts and applies statistical analysis to quantify the importance of individual tokens within a sequence to the final outcome. This quantified token-level importance is then combined with the rollout-level advantage to obtain a more fine-grained token-level advantage estimation. Empirical results show that models trained with GRPO+KTAE and DAPO+KTAE outperform baseline methods across five mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Notably, they achieve higher accuracy with shorter responses and even surpass R1-Distill-Qwen-1.5B using the same base model.

Off-policy learning (OPL) aims at finding improved policies from logged bandit data, often by minimizing the inverse propensity scoring (IPS) estimator of the risk. In this work, we investigate a smooth regularization for IPS, for which we derive a two-sided PAC-Bayes generalization bound. The bound is tractable, scalable, interpretable and provides learning certificates. In particular, it is also valid for standard IPS without making the assumption that the importance weights are bounded. We demonstrate the relevance of our approach and its favorable performance through a set of learning tasks. Since our bound holds for standard IPS, we are able to provide insight into when regularizing IPS is useful. Namely, we identify cases where regularization might not be needed. This goes against the belief that, in practice, clipped IPS often enjoys favorable performance than standard IPS in OPL.

Many localized large language model (LLM) unlearning methods select a small parameter subset from a localization signal and keep it fixed during optimization. The parameters most associated with a target, however, need not be the best ones to update, and candidate interventions can change value as optimization proceeds. In a controlled experiment, a storage-localization score reaches an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.981, yet storage identity agrees with the better intervention on only 17/36 targets, while low-rank adaptation (LoRA) wins 35/36. We introduce Intervention Score, which ranks editable groups by the predicted effect of the actual unlearning update while accounting for collateral damage, and use it to form the static intervention-value baseline (Static-IV). We then introduce selective dynamic intervention re-ranking (DIR-R), which revisits that subset only when a calibrated probe justifies the comparison. On the Natural-TOFU dataset, our method has positive descriptive margins in 19/20 comparisons between methods and objectives, although several are near zero. On the LACUNA localization-precision benchmark, our mean terminal utility is higher in all six negative preference optimization (NPO) and SimNPO comparisons: NPO margins range from +0.431 to +0.848, and SimNPO margins range from +0.503 to +0.571. The gradient-difference (GradDiff) objective reveals substantial field dependence. Relative to Static-IV, the primary four-field GradDiff evaluation has six wins, six ties, and no losses, with mean and median paired gains of +0.165 and +0.0025. The evidence supports separating localization, initial intervention selection, and checkpoint-dependent support revision.

Evaluating an AI system requires disaggregated assessment, as performance varies across domains such as benchmark task types or conversation types in deployed agents. Exhaustive testing is expensive, so evaluation rests on a sample of labeled units. We treat the evaluation set as a finite population and seek accurate point and interval estimates of each domain mean. Direct estimators, including prediction-powered inference (PPI), use only a domain's own labels and are imprecise where labels are few. Small area estimation addresses this problem, and we build on it to develop an integrated workflow for estimation and validation. For estimation, we propose prediction-powered smoothing (PP-S), a Bayesian model fit to each domain's prediction-powered estimate, with an extension that borrows strength across a reporting taxonomy (PP-TS). For validation, we derive a new, approximately unbiased design-based cross-validation score for choosing among direct and smoothed estimators. We study a curated benchmark with verifiable grading and deployed agent traffic graded by humans, each with every outcome observed. In both, the proposed estimators improve on the direct estimators in point and interval estimation, with near-nominal coverage. At the same sampling budget, our score selects as well as an independent validation sample does and estimates the selected estimator's error far more accurately.

Memory systems for production LLM agents mostly store semantic memory (facts about users and domains) or episodic memory (earlier interactions). Research systems such as Trace2Skill, WikiSkill, and SkillRevise learn procedures from agent runs, package them as Skills, and evaluate them on benchmarks. We describe Zep Agent Skills, a production service that gives deployed agents this procedural memory. The service uses only verified attempts as evidence, cites the supporting events for each field of a Skill, and governs the admission and distribution of each Skill version. The service records each task attempt as a Trace with ordered events, an outcome, and a verification strength. A compiler with separate Reflector and Curator roles turns verified Traces into versioned Skills. Scans and admission gates control which candidates become active, and verified use outcomes change the search rank of each Skill. The Agent Skills format is an open standard that Anthropic originated and donated to the Agentic AI Foundation, so any host of the format can load a compiled Skill. Agents retrieve Skills through lexical search with progressive disclosure, over an API or MCP. We evaluate Zep Agent Skills on τ^3-bench banking, AppWorld, and EnterpriseOps-Gym. Skills compiled from the Traces of a teacher model increase the pass rate of three weaker executor models on the same tasks, at every reasoning effort, by 4.5 to 18.8 points. Most of the gain is on the tasks that the teacher solved. On ALFWorld, Skills compiled from the runs of a small model give a gain similar to or larger than the gain that prior work reports for continuous fine-tuning, with no training.