Daily Papers

This study presents an explainable artificial intelligent (XAI) model for predicting pile driving vibrations in Bangkok's soft clay subsoil. A deep neural network was developed using a dataset of 1,018 real-world pile driving measurements, encompassing variations in pile dimensions, hammer characteristics, sensor locations, and vibration measurement axes. The model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.276, outperforming traditional empirical methods and other machine learning approaches such as XGBoost and CatBoost. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was employed to interpret the model's predictions, revealing complex relationships between input features and peak particle velocity (PPV). Distance from the pile driving location emerged as the most influential factor, followed by hammer weight and pile size. Non-linear relationships and threshold effects were observed, providing new insights into vibration propagation in soft clay. A web-based application was developed to facilitate adoption by practicing engineers, bridging the gap between advanced machine learning techniques and practical engineering applications. This research contributes to the field of geotechnical engineering by offering a more accurate and nuanced approach to predicting pile driving vibrations, with implications for optimizing construction practices and mitigating environmental impacts in urban areas. The model and its source code are publicly available, promoting transparency and reproducibility in geotechnical research.

Automatic age estimation is widely used for age verification, where input images often vary considerably in resolution. This study evaluates the effect of image resolution on age estimation accuracy using DeepFace and InsightFace. A total of 1000 images from the IMDB-Clean dataset were processed in seven resolutions, resulting in 7000 test samples. Performance was evaluated using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Standard Deviation (SD), and Median Absolute Error (MedAE). Based on this study, we conclude that input image resolution has a clear and consistent impact on the accuracy of age estimation in both DeepFace and InsightFace. Both frameworks achieve optimal performance at 224x224 pixels, with an MAE of 10.83 years (DeepFace) and 7.46 years (InsightFace). At low resolutions, MAE increases substantially, while very high resolutions also degrade accuracy. InsightFace is consistently faster than DeepFace across all resolutions.

Train delay prediction is an important problem for both passengers and railway operators, yet progress in the field remains difficult to assess due to the lack of standardized datasets, prediction targets, and evaluation protocols. To address this gap, we introduce RIDE, an open dataset and benchmark for train delay prediction built at nationwide scale over the Belgian railway network. RIDE covers 94.5M train events, 3.6M journeys, and 35.7M weather records from 2023 to 2025. It is organized as a layered data pipeline from raw railway and weather sources to two public releases: a reusable intermediate relational dataset and model-ready benchmark datasets. The benchmark standardizes the prediction task and the training and testing data. It also provides a unified evaluation protocol that supports direct comparison across models. Using this framework, we provide the first comprehensive comparative evaluation of non-learning, statistical learning, and deep learning models. We show that learning-based methods clearly outperform non-learning models, with graph neural networks achieving the best mean performance, while the strongest learning-based models remain relatively close to one another. Beyond aggregate mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE), the framework also provides breakdowns by prediction horizon and delay change, enabling more detailed analysis of model behavior across forecasting regimes.

We present the Multilingual Amazon Reviews Corpus (MARC), a large-scale collection of Amazon reviews for multilingual text classification. The corpus contains reviews in English, Japanese, German, French, Spanish, and Chinese, which were collected between 2015 and 2019. Each record in the dataset contains the review text, the review title, the star rating, an anonymized reviewer ID, an anonymized product ID, and the coarse-grained product category (e.g., 'books', 'appliances', etc.) The corpus is balanced across the 5 possible star ratings, so each rating constitutes 20% of the reviews in each language. For each language, there are 200,000, 5,000, and 5,000 reviews in the training, development, and test sets, respectively. We report baseline results for supervised text classification and zero-shot cross-lingual transfer learning by fine-tuning a multilingual BERT model on reviews data. We propose the use of mean absolute error (MAE) instead of classification accuracy for this task, since MAE accounts for the ordinal nature of the ratings.

Cognitively inspired Natural Language Pro-cessing uses human-derived behavioral datalike eye-tracking data, which reflect the seman-tic representations of language in the humanbrain to augment the neural nets to solve arange of tasks spanning syntax and semanticswith the aim of teaching machines about lan-guage processing mechanisms. In this paper,we use the ZuCo 1.0 and ZuCo 2.0 dataset con-taining the eye-gaze features to explore differ-ent linguistic models to directly predict thesegaze features for each word with respect to itssentence. We tried different neural networkmodels with the words as inputs to predict thetargets. And after lots of experimentation andfeature engineering finally devised a novel ar-chitecture consisting of RoBERTa Token Clas-sifier with a dense layer on top for languagemodeling and a stand-alone model consistingof dense layers followed by a transformer layerfor the extra features we engineered. Finally,we took the mean of the outputs of both thesemodels to make the final predictions. We eval-uated the models using mean absolute error(MAE) and the R2 score for each target.

Predicting mortality-related outcomes from images offers the prospect of accessible, noninvasive, and scalable health screening. We present a method that leverages pretrained vision transformer foundation models to estimate remaining lifespan from facial and whole-body images, alongside robust uncertainty quantification. We show that predictive uncertainty varies systematically with the true remaining lifespan, and that this uncertainty can be effectively modeled by learning a Gaussian distribution for each sample. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art mean absolute error (MAE) of 7.48 years on an established Dataset, and further improves to 4.79 and 5.07 years MAE on two new, higher-quality datasets curated and published in this work. Importantly, our models provide well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, as demonstrated by a bucketed expected calibration error of 0.62 years. While not intended for clinical deployment, these results highlight the potential of extracting medically relevant signals from images. We make all code and datasets available to facilitate further research.

Human health can be critically affected by cardiovascular diseases, such as hypertension, arrhythmias, and stroke. Heart rate and blood pressure are important biometric information for the monitoring of cardiovascular system and early diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases. Existing methods for estimating the heart rate are based on electrocardiography and photoplethyomography, which require contacting the sensor to the skin surface. Moreover, catheter and cuff-based methods for measuring blood pressure cause inconvenience and have limited applicability. Therefore, in this thesis, we propose a vision-based method for estimating the heart rate and blood pressure. This thesis proposes a 2-stage deep learning framework consisting of a dual remote photoplethysmography network (DRP-Net) and bounded blood pressure network (BBP-Net). In the first stage, DRP-Net infers remote photoplethysmography (rPPG) signals for the acral and facial regions, and these phase-shifted rPPG signals are utilized to estimate the heart rate. In the second stage, BBP-Net integrates temporal features and analyzes phase discrepancy between the acral and facial rPPG signals to estimate SBP and DBP values. To improve the accuracy of estimating the heart rate, we employed a data augmentation method based on a frame interpolation model. Moreover, we designed BBP-Net to infer blood pressure within a predefined range by incorporating a scaled sigmoid function. Our method resulted in estimating the heart rate with the mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.78 BPM, reducing the MAE by 34.31 % compared to the recent method, on the MMSE-HR dataset. The MAE for estimating the systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were 10.19 mmHg and 7.09 mmHg. On the V4V dataset, the MAE for the heart rate, SBP, and DBP were 3.83 BPM, 13.64 mmHg, and 9.4 mmHg, respectively.

Dengue fever presents a substantial challenge in developing countries where sanitation infrastructure is inadequate. The absence of comprehensive healthcare systems exacerbates the severity of dengue infections, potentially leading to life-threatening circumstances. Rapid response to dengue outbreaks is also challenging due to limited information exchange and integration. While timely dengue outbreak forecasts have the potential to prevent such outbreaks, the majority of dengue prediction studies have predominantly relied on data that impose significant burdens on individual countries for collection. In this study, our aim is to improve health equity in resource-constrained countries by exploring the effectiveness of high-resolution satellite imagery as a nontraditional and readily accessible data source. By leveraging the wealth of publicly available and easily obtainable satellite imagery, we present a scalable satellite extraction framework based on Sentinel Hub, a cloud-based computing platform. Furthermore, we introduce DengueNet, an innovative architecture that combines Vision Transformer, Radiomics, and Long Short-term Memory to extract and integrate spatiotemporal features from satellite images. This enables dengue predictions on an epi-week basis. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method, we conducted experiments on five municipalities in Colombia. We utilized a dataset comprising 780 high-resolution Sentinel-2 satellite images for training and evaluation. The performance of DengueNet was assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE) metric. Across the five municipalities, DengueNet achieved an average MAE of 43.92. Our findings strongly support the efficacy of satellite imagery as a valuable resource for dengue prediction, particularly in informing public health policies within countries where manually collected data is scarce and dengue virus prevalence is severe.

The automation of scientific discovery has been a long-standing goal within the research community, driven by the potential to accelerate knowledge creation. While significant progress has been made using commercial large language models (LLMs) as research assistants or idea generators, the possibility of automating the entire research process with open-source LLMs remains largely unexplored. This paper explores the feasibility of using open-source post-trained LLMs as autonomous agents capable of performing the full cycle of automated research and review, from literature review and manuscript preparation to peer review and paper revision. Our iterative preference training framework consists of CycleResearcher, which conducts research tasks, and CycleReviewer, which simulates the peer review process, providing iterative feedback via reinforcement learning. To train these models, we develop two new datasets, Review-5k and Research-14k, reflecting real-world machine learning research and peer review dynamics. Our results demonstrate that CycleReviewer achieves a 26.89\% improvement in mean absolute error (MAE) over individual human reviewers in predicting paper scores, indicating that LLMs can surpass expert-level performance in research evaluation. In research, the papers generated by the CycleResearcher model achieved a score of 5.36 in simulated peer reviews, surpassing the preprint level of 5.24 from human experts and approaching the accepted paper level of 5.69. This work represents a significant step toward fully automated scientific inquiry, providing ethical safeguards and advancing AI-driven research capabilities. The code, dataset and model weight are released at http://github/minjun-zhu/Researcher.

Community parks play a crucial role in promoting physical activity and overall well-being. This study introduces DLICP (Deep Learning Integrated Community Parks), an innovative approach that combines deep learning techniques specifically, face recognition technology with a novel walking activity measurement algorithm to enhance user experience in community parks. The DLICP utilizes a camera with face recognition software to accurately identify and track park users. Simultaneously, a walking activity measurement algorithm calculates parameters such as the average pace and calories burned, tailored to individual attributes. Extensive evaluations confirm the precision of DLICP, with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 5.64 calories and a Mean Percentage Error (MPE) of 1.96%, benchmarked against widely available fitness measurement devices, such as the Apple Watch Series 6. This study contributes significantly to the development of intelligent smart park systems, enabling real-time updates on burned calories and personalized fitness tracking.

Evaluating neural network performance is critical to deep neural network design but a costly procedure. Neural predictors provide an efficient solution by treating architectures as samples and learning to estimate their performance on a given task. However, existing predictors are task-dependent, predominantly estimating neural network performance on image classification benchmarks. They are also search-space dependent; each predictor is designed to make predictions for a specific architecture search space with predefined topologies and set of operations. In this paper, we propose a novel All-in-One Predictor (AIO-P), which aims to pretrain neural predictors on architecture examples from multiple, separate computer vision (CV) task domains and multiple architecture spaces, and then transfer to unseen downstream CV tasks or neural architectures. We describe our proposed techniques for general graph representation, efficient predictor pretraining and knowledge infusion techniques, as well as methods to transfer to downstream tasks/spaces. Extensive experimental results show that AIO-P can achieve Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Spearman's Rank Correlation (SRCC) below 1% and above 0.5, respectively, on a breadth of target downstream CV tasks with or without fine-tuning, outperforming a number of baselines. Moreover, AIO-P can directly transfer to new architectures not seen during training, accurately rank them and serve as an effective performance estimator when paired with an algorithm designed to preserve performance while reducing FLOPs.

Cloud platforms are increasingly relied upon to host diverse, resource-intensive workloads due to their scalability, flexibility, and cost-efficiency. In multi-tenant cloud environments, virtual machines are consolidated on shared physical servers to improve resource utilization. While virtualization guarantees resource partitioning for CPU, memory, and storage, it cannot ensure performance isolation. Competition for shared resources such as last-level cache, memory bandwidth, and network interfaces often leads to severe performance degradation. Existing management techniques, including VM scheduling and resource provisioning, require accurate performance prediction to mitigate interference. However, this remains challenging in public clouds due to the black-box nature of VMs and the highly dynamic nature of workloads. To address these limitations, we propose CloudFormer, a dual-branch Transformer-based model designed to predict VM performance degradation in black-box environments. CloudFormer jointly models temporal dynamics and system-level interactions, leveraging 206 system metrics at one-second resolution across both static and dynamic scenarios. This design enables the model to capture transient interference effects and adapt to varying workload conditions without scenario-specific tuning. Complementing the methodology, we provide a fine-grained dataset that significantly expands the temporal resolution and metric diversity compared to existing benchmarks. Experimental results demonstrate that CloudFormer consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines across multiple evaluation metrics, achieving robust generalization across diverse and previously unseen workloads. Notably, CloudFormer attains a mean absolute error (MAE) of just 7.8%, representing a substantial improvement in predictive accuracy and outperforming existing methods at least by 28%.

Automatic image rotation estimation is a key preprocessing step in many vision pipelines. This task is challenging because angles have circular topology, creating boundary discontinuities that hinder standard regression methods. We present a comprehensive study of five circular-aware methods for global orientation estimation: direct angle regression with circular loss, classification via angular binning, unit-vector regression, phase-shifting coder, and circular Gaussian distribution. Using transfer learning from ImageNet-pretrained models, we systematically evaluate these methods across sixteen modern architectures by adapting their output heads for rotation-specific predictions. Our results show that probabilistic methods, particularly the circular Gaussian distribution, are the most robust across architectures, while classification achieves the best accuracy on well-matched backbones but suffers training instabilities on others. The best configuration (classification with EfficientViT-B3) achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.23° (mean across five independent runs) on the DRC-D dataset, while the circular Gaussian distribution with MambaOut Base achieves a virtually identical 1.24° with greater robustness across backbones. Training and evaluating our top-performing method-architecture combinations on COCO 2014, the best configuration reaches 3.71° MAE, improving substantially over prior work, with further improvement to 2.84° on the larger COCO 2017 dataset.

We introduce Multi-Cylindrical Panoramic Depth Estimation (MCPDepth), a two-stage framework for omnidirectional depth estimation via stereo matching between multiple cylindrical panoramas. MCPDepth uses cylindrical panoramas for initial stereo matching and then fuses the resulting depth maps across views. A circular attention module is employed to overcome the distortion along the vertical axis. MCPDepth exclusively utilizes standard network components, simplifying deployment to embedded devices and outperforming previous methods that require custom kernels. We theoretically and experimentally compare spherical and cylindrical projections for stereo matching, highlighting the advantages of the cylindrical projection. MCPDepth achieves state-of-the-art performance with an 18.8% reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) for depth on the outdoor synthetic dataset Deep360 and a 19.9% reduction on the indoor real-scene dataset 3D60.

Generating realistic synthetic microscopy images is critical for training deep learning models in label-scarce environments, such as cell counting with many cells per image. However, traditional domain adaptation methods often struggle to bridge the domain gap when synthetic images lack the complex textures and visual patterns of real samples. In this work, we adapt the Inversion-Based Style Transfer (InST) framework originally designed for artistic style transfer to biomedical microscopy images. Our method combines latent-space Adaptive Instance Normalization with stochastic inversion in a diffusion model to transfer the style from real fluorescence microscopy images to synthetic ones, while weakly preserving content structure. We evaluate the effectiveness of our InST-based synthetic dataset for downstream cell counting by pre-training and fine-tuning EfficientNet-B0 models on various data sources, including real data, hard-coded synthetic data, and the public Cell200-s dataset. Models trained with our InST-synthesized images achieve up to 37\% lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE) compared to models trained on hard-coded synthetic data, and a 52\% reduction in MAE compared to models trained on Cell200-s (from 53.70 to 25.95 MAE). Notably, our approach also outperforms models trained on real data alone (25.95 vs. 27.74 MAE). Further improvements are achieved when combining InST-synthesized data with lightweight domain adaptation techniques such as DACS with CutMix. These findings demonstrate that InST-based style transfer most effectively reduces the domain gap between synthetic and real microscopy data. Our approach offers a scalable path for enhancing cell counting performance while minimizing manual labeling effort. The source code and resources are publicly available at: https://github.com/MohammadDehghan/InST-Microscopy.

One straightforward metric to evaluate a survival prediction model is based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) -- the average of the absolute difference between the time predicted by the model and the true event time, over all subjects. Unfortunately, this is challenging because, in practice, the test set includes (right) censored individuals, meaning we do not know when a censored individual actually experienced the event. In this paper, we explore various metrics to estimate MAE for survival datasets that include (many) censored individuals. Moreover, we introduce a novel and effective approach for generating realistic semi-synthetic survival datasets to facilitate the evaluation of metrics. Our findings, based on the analysis of the semi-synthetic datasets, reveal that our proposed metric (MAE using pseudo-observations) is able to rank models accurately based on their performance, and often closely matches the true MAE -- in particular, is better than several alternative methods.

We investigate fine-tuning Vision-Language Models (VLMs) for multi-task medical image understanding, focusing on detection, localization, and counting of findings in medical images. Our objective is to evaluate whether instruction-tuned VLMs can simultaneously improve these tasks, with the goal of enhancing diagnostic accuracy and efficiency. Using MedMultiPoints, a multimodal dataset with annotations from endoscopy (polyps and instruments) and microscopy (sperm cells), we reformulate each task into instruction-based prompts suitable for vision-language reasoning. We fine-tune Qwen2.5-VL-7B-Instruct using Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) across multiple task combinations. Results show that multi-task training improves robustness and accuracy. For example, it reduces the Count Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and increases Matching Accuracy in the Counting + Pointing task. However, trade-offs emerge, such as more zero-case point predictions, indicating reduced reliability in edge cases despite overall performance gains. Our study highlights the potential of adapting general-purpose VLMs to specialized medical tasks via prompt-driven fine-tuning. This approach mirrors clinical workflows, where radiologists simultaneously localize, count, and describe findings - demonstrating how VLMs can learn composite diagnostic reasoning patterns. The model produces interpretable, structured outputs, offering a promising step toward explainable and versatile medical AI. Code, model weights, and scripts will be released for reproducibility at https://github.com/simula/PointDetectCount.

Molecular dynamics simulation of plasma-surface interactions requires an interatomic potential that is simultaneously accurate, computationally efficient, and able to describe many elements and bonding types in reactive systems. In principle, a foundation model for machine-learned interatomic potential (MLIP) can meet these demands. We explore the use of the Universal Models for Atoms (UMA) model, developed by Meta FAIR, for the interactions of oxygen plasma species on a multilayer of WS_2, a promising 2D material. Starting from the pretrained uma-s-1p1 model under the Open Catalyst 2020 (OC20) task, we apply an iterative fine-tuning loop with maximally diverse configuration sampling using Smooth Overlap of Atomic Positions (SOAP) and Farthest Point Sampling (FPS); DFT labeling at the PBE+D3+U+spin level; and fine-tuning on energy, force, and stress labels. Even in the absence of fine-tuning, the pretrained model reproduces the production-scale observables of interest, namely, chemisorbed S and O coverage under 15eV O^+ and O_2^+ bombardment. These results were obtained without spin polarization and Hubbard U correction. Nonetheless, fine-tuning reduces the energy and force mean absolute error (MAE) to 4.5times10^{-3}eV/atom and 0.076eV/angstrom, respectively.

Left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) results from chronic remodeling caused by a broad range of systemic and cardiovascular disease including hypertension, aortic stenosis, hypertrophic cardiomyopathy, and cardiac amyloidosis. Early detection and characterization of LVH can significantly impact patient care but is limited by under-recognition of hypertrophy, measurement error and variability, and difficulty differentiating etiologies of LVH. To overcome this challenge, we present EchoNet-LVH - a deep learning workflow that automatically quantifies ventricular hypertrophy with precision equal to human experts and predicts etiology of LVH. Trained on 28,201 echocardiogram videos, our model accurately measures intraventricular wall thickness (mean absolute error [MAE] 1.4mm, 95% CI 1.2-1.5mm), left ventricular diameter (MAE 2.4mm, 95% CI 2.2-2.6mm), and posterior wall thickness (MAE 1.2mm, 95% CI 1.1-1.3mm) and classifies cardiac amyloidosis (area under the curve of 0.83) and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (AUC 0.98) from other etiologies of LVH. In external datasets from independent domestic and international healthcare systems, EchoNet-LVH accurately quantified ventricular parameters (R2 of 0.96 and 0.90 respectively) and detected cardiac amyloidosis (AUC 0.79) and hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (AUC 0.89) on the domestic external validation site. Leveraging measurements across multiple heart beats, our model can more accurately identify subtle changes in LV geometry and its causal etiologies. Compared to human experts, EchoNet-LVH is fully automated, allowing for reproducible, precise measurements, and lays the foundation for precision diagnosis of cardiac hypertrophy. As a resource to promote further innovation, we also make publicly available a large dataset of 23,212 annotated echocardiogram videos.

Multivariable time series forecasting methods can integrate information from exogenous variables, leading to significant prediction accuracy gains. Transformer architecture has been widely applied in various time series forecasting models due to its ability to capture long-range sequential dependencies. However, a na\"ive application of transformers often struggles to effectively model complex relationships among variables over time. To mitigate against this, we propose a novel architecture, namely the Spectral Operator Neural Network (Sonnet). Sonnet applies learnable wavelet transformations to the input and incorporates spectral analysis using the Koopman operator. Its predictive skill relies on the Multivariable Coherence Attention (MVCA), an operation that leverages spectral coherence to model variable dependencies. Our empirical analysis shows that Sonnet yields the best performance on 34 out of 47 forecasting tasks with an average mean absolute error (MAE) reduction of 1.1% against the most competitive baseline (different per task). We further show that MVCA -- when put in place of the na\"ive attention used in various deep learning models -- can remedy its deficiencies, reducing MAE by 10.7% on average in the most challenging forecasting tasks.

With the volatile and complex nature of financial data influenced by external factors, forecasting the stock market is challenging. Traditional models such as ARIMA and GARCH perform well with linear data but struggle with non-linear dependencies. Machine learning and deep learning models, particularly Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, address these challenges by capturing intricate patterns and long-term dependencies. This report compares ARIMA and LSTM models in predicting the S&P 500 index, a major financial benchmark. Using historical price data and technical indicators, we evaluated these models using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). The ARIMA model showed reasonable performance with an MAE of 462.1, RMSE of 614, and 89.8 percent accuracy, effectively capturing short-term trends but limited by its linear assumptions. The LSTM model, leveraging sequential processing capabilities, outperformed ARIMA with an MAE of 369.32, RMSE of 412.84, and 92.46 percent accuracy, capturing both short- and long-term dependencies. Notably, the LSTM model without additional features performed best, achieving an MAE of 175.9, RMSE of 207.34, and 96.41 percent accuracy, showcasing its ability to handle market data efficiently. Accurately predicting stock movements is crucial for investment strategies, risk assessments, and market stability. Our findings confirm the potential of deep learning models in handling volatile financial data compared to traditional ones. The results highlight the effectiveness of LSTM and suggest avenues for further improvements. This study provides insights into financial forecasting, offering a comparative analysis of ARIMA and LSTM while outlining their strengths and limitations.

We propose a network for Congested Scene Recognition called CSRNet to provide a data-driven and deep learning method that can understand highly congested scenes and perform accurate count estimation as well as present high-quality density maps. The proposed CSRNet is composed of two major components: a convolutional neural network (CNN) as the front-end for 2D feature extraction and a dilated CNN for the back-end, which uses dilated kernels to deliver larger reception fields and to replace pooling operations. CSRNet is an easy-trained model because of its pure convolutional structure. We demonstrate CSRNet on four datasets (ShanghaiTech dataset, the UCF_CC_50 dataset, the WorldEXPO'10 dataset, and the UCSD dataset) and we deliver the state-of-the-art performance. In the ShanghaiTech Part_B dataset, CSRNet achieves 47.3% lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE) than the previous state-of-the-art method. We extend the targeted applications for counting other objects, such as the vehicle in TRANCOS dataset. Results show that CSRNet significantly improves the output quality with 15.4% lower MAE than the previous state-of-the-art approach.

This study concentrates on evaluating the efficacy of Large Language Models (LLMs) in healthcare, with a specific focus on their application in personal anomalous health monitoring. Our research primarily investigates the capabilities of LLMs in interpreting and analyzing physiological data obtained from FDA-approved devices. We conducted an extensive analysis using anomalous physiological data gathered in a simulated low-air-pressure plateau environment. This allowed us to assess the precision and reliability of LLMs in understanding and evaluating users' health status with notable specificity. Our findings reveal that LLMs exhibit exceptional performance in determining medical indicators, including a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of less than 1 beat per minute for heart rate and less than 1% for oxygen saturation (SpO2). Furthermore, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for these evaluations remained below 1%, with the overall accuracy of health assessments surpassing 85%. In image analysis tasks, such as interpreting photoplethysmography (PPG) data, our specially adapted GPT models demonstrated remarkable proficiency, achieving less than 1 bpm error in cycle count and 7.28 MAE for heart rate estimation. This study highlights LLMs' dual role as health data analysis tools and pivotal elements in advanced AI health assistants, offering personalized health insights and recommendations within the future health assistant framework.

We propose a novel hybrid cable-based robot with manipulator and camera for high-accuracy, medium-throughput plant monitoring in a vertical hydroponic farm and, as an example application, demonstrate non-destructive plant mass estimation. Plant monitoring with high temporal and spatial resolution is important to both farmers and researchers to detect anomalies and develop predictive models for plant growth. The availability of high-quality, off-the-shelf structure-from-motion (SfM) and photogrammetry packages has enabled a vibrant community of roboticists to apply computer vision for non-destructive plant monitoring. While existing approaches tend to focus on either high-throughput (e.g. satellite, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), vehicle-mounted, conveyor-belt imagery) or high-accuracy/robustness to occlusions (e.g. turn-table scanner or robot arm), we propose a middle-ground that achieves high accuracy with a medium-throughput, highly automated robot. Our design pairs the workspace scalability of a cable-driven parallel robot (CDPR) with the dexterity of a 4 degree-of-freedom (DoF) robot arm to autonomously image many plants from a variety of viewpoints. We describe our robot design and demonstrate it experimentally by collecting daily photographs of 54 plants from 64 viewpoints each. We show that our approach can produce scientifically useful measurements, operate fully autonomously after initial calibration, and produce better reconstructions and plant property estimates than those of over-canopy methods (e.g. UAV). As example applications, we show that our system can successfully estimate plant mass with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.586g and, when used to perform hypothesis testing on the relationship between mass and age, produces p-values comparable to ground-truth data (p=0.0020 and p=0.0016, respectively).

Accurate prediction of thermal runaway in lithium-ion batteries is essential for ensuring the safety, efficiency, and reliability of modern energy storage systems. Conventional data-driven approaches, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, can capture complex temporal dependencies but often violate thermodynamic principles, resulting in physically inconsistent predictions. Conversely, physics-based thermal models provide interpretability but are computationally expensive and difficult to parameterize for real-time applications. To bridge this gap, this study proposes a Physics-Informed Long Short-Term Memory (PI-LSTM) framework that integrates governing heat transfer equations directly into the deep learning architecture through a physics-based regularization term in the loss function. The model leverages multi-feature input sequences, including state of charge, voltage, current, mechanical stress, and surface temperature, to forecast battery temperature evolution while enforcing thermal diffusion constraints. Extensive experiments conducted on thirteen lithium-ion battery datasets demonstrate that the proposed PI-LSTM achieves an 81.9% reduction in root mean square error (RMSE) and an 81.3% reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) compared to the standard LSTM baseline, while also outperforming CNN-LSTM and multilayer perceptron (MLP) models by wide margins. The inclusion of physical constraints enhances the model's generalization across diverse operating conditions and eliminates non-physical temperature oscillations. These results confirm that physics-informed deep learning offers a viable pathway toward interpretable, accurate, and real-time thermal management in next-generation battery systems.

This study proposes a two-level stacking ensemble framework for Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction of turbofan engines, evaluated on the NASA C-MAPSS benchmark using the FD001 and FD003 subsets. The framework integrates four heterogeneous deep learning base learners: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), CNN-LSTM, and CNN-GRU, whose out-of-fold predictions are combined by an XGBoost meta-learner to capture complex degradation patterns while mitigating individual model biases. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that the stacking ensemble achieves superior predictive performance, with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 9.989 and 8.613, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 7.081 and 5.195, and R-squared values of 0.899 and 0.906 for FD001 and FD003, respectively. Compared to the best-reported baseline (TCAT: RMSE 11.12 and 11.02), the proposed method achieves RMSE reductions of 10.2 percent and 21.8 percent for FD001 and FD003, respectively. Feature correlation analysis, residual diagnostics, and training convergence curves validate the model's robustness. These findings underscore the efficacy of stacking ensemble methods for prognostics and health management in safety-critical aerospace applications.

Non-contact remote photoplethysmography (rPPG) technology enables heart rate measurement from facial videos. However, existing network models still face challenges in accu racy, robustness, and generalization capability under complex scenarios. This paper proposes an end-to-end rPPG extraction network that employs 3D convolutional neural networks to reconstruct accurate rPPG signals from raw facial videos. We introduce a differential frame fusion module that integrates differential frames with original frames, enabling frame-level representations to capture blood volume pulse (BVP) variations. Additionally, we incorporate Temporal Shift Module (TSM) with self-attention mechanisms, which effectively enhance rPPG features with minimal computational overhead. Furthermore, we propose a novel dynamic hybrid loss function that provides stronger supervision for the network, effectively mitigating over fitting. Comprehensive experiments were conducted on not only the PURE and UBFC-rPPG datasets but also the challenging MMPD dataset under complex scenarios, involving both intra dataset and cross-dataset evaluations, which demonstrate the superior robustness and generalization capability of our network. Specifically, after training on PURE, our model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 7.58 on the MMPD test set, outperforming the state-of-the-art models.

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence in legal natural language processing demands scalable methods for evaluating text extraction from judicial decisions. This study evaluates 16 unsupervised metrics, including novel formulations, to assess the quality of extracting seven semantic blocks from 1,000 anonymized Russian judicial decisions, validated against 7,168 expert reviews on a 1--5 Likert scale. These metrics, spanning document-based, semantic, structural, pseudo-ground truth, and legal-specific categories, operate without pre-annotated ground truth. Bootstrapped correlations, Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), and mean absolute error (MAE) reveal that Term Frequency Coherence (Pearson r = 0.540, Lin CCC = 0.512, MAE = 0.127) and Coverage Ratio/Block Completeness (Pearson r = 0.513, Lin CCC = 0.443, MAE = 0.139) best align with expert ratings, while Legal Term Density (Pearson r = -0.479, Lin CCC = -0.079, MAE = 0.394) show strong negative correlations. The LLM Evaluation Score (mean = 0.849, Pearson r = 0.382, Lin CCC = 0.325, MAE = 0.197) showed moderate alignment, but its performance, using gpt-4.1-mini via g4f, suggests limited specialization for legal textse. These findings highlight that unsupervised metrics, including LLM-based approaches, enable scalable screening but, with moderate correlations and low CCC values, cannot fully replace human judgment in high-stakes legal contexts. This work advances legal NLP by providing annotation-free evaluation tools, with implications for judicial analytics and ethical AI deployment.

Depth completion plays a vital role in 3D perception systems, especially in scenarios where sparse depth data must be densified for tasks such as autonomous driving, robotics, and augmented reality. While many existing approaches rely on semantic segmentation to guide depth completion, they often overlook the benefits of object-level understanding. In this work, we introduce an instance-aware depth completion framework that explicitly integrates binary instance masks as spatial priors to refine depth predictions. Our model combines four main components: a frozen YOLO V11 instance segmentation branch, a U-Net-based depth completion backbone, a cross-attention fusion module, and an attention-guided prediction head. The instance segmentation branch generates per-image foreground masks that guide the depth branch via cross-attention, allowing the network to focus on object-centric regions during refinement. We validate our method on the Virtual KITTI 2 dataset, showing that it achieves lower Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) compared to both a U-Net-only baseline and previous semantic-guided methods, while maintaining competitive Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Qualitative and quantitative results demonstrate that the proposed model effectively enhances depth accuracy near object boundaries, occlusions, and thin structures. Our findings suggest that incorporating instance-aware cues offers a promising direction for improving depth completion without relying on dense semantic labels.

Facial age estimation plays a critical role in content moderation, age verification, and deepfake detection. However, no prior benchmark has systematically compared modern vision-language models (VLMs) with specialized age estimation architectures. We present the first large-scale cross-paradigm benchmark, evaluating 34 models - 22 specialized architectures with publicly available pretrained weights and 12 general-purpose VLMs - across eight standard datasets (UTKFace, IMDB-WIKI, MORPH, AFAD, CACD, FG-NET, APPA-REAL, and AgeDB), totaling 1,100 test images per model. Our key finding is striking: zero-shot VLMs significantly outperform most specialized models, achieving an average mean absolute error (MAE) of 5.65 years compared to 9.88 years for non-LLM models. The best-performing VLM (Gemini 3 Flash Preview, MAE 4.32) surpasses the strongest non-LLM model (MiVOLO, MAE 5.10) by 15%. MiVOLO - unique in combining face and body features using Vision Transformers - is the only specialized model that remains competitive with VLMs. We further analyze age verification at the 18-year threshold and find that most non-LLM models exhibit false adult rates between 39% and 100% for minors, whereas VLMs reduce this to 16%-29%. Additionally, coarse age binning (8-9 classes) consistently increases MAE beyond 13 years. Stratified analysis across 14 age groups reveals that all models struggle most at extreme ages (under 5 and over 65). Overall, these findings challenge the assumption that task-specific architectures are necessary for high-performance age estimation and suggest that future work should focus on distilling VLM capabilities into efficient specialized models.

Sub-10cm diameter nano-drones are gaining momentum thanks to their applicability in scenarios prevented to bigger flying drones, such as in narrow environments and close to humans. However, their tiny form factor also brings their major drawback: ultra-constrained memory and processors for the onboard execution of their perception pipelines. Therefore, lightweight deep learning-based approaches are becoming increasingly popular, stressing how computational efficiency and energy-saving are paramount as they can make the difference between a fully working closed-loop system and a failing one. In this work, to maximize the exploitation of the ultra-limited resources aboard nano-drones, we present a novel adaptive deep learning-based mechanism for the efficient execution of a vision-based human pose estimation task. We leverage two State-of-the-Art (SoA) convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with different regression performance vs. computational costs trade-offs. By combining these CNNs with three novel adaptation strategies based on the output's temporal consistency and on auxiliary tasks to swap the CNN being executed proactively, we present six different systems. On a real-world dataset and the actual nano-drone hardware, our best-performing system, compared to executing only the bigger and most accurate SoA model, shows 28% latency reduction while keeping the same mean absolute error (MAE), 3% MAE reduction while being iso-latency, and the absolute peak performance, i.e., 6% better than SoA model.

Visible-light cameras can capture subtle physiological biomarkers without physical contact with the subject. We present the Multi-Site Physiological Monitoring (MSPM) dataset, which is the first dataset collected to support the study of simultaneous camera-based vital signs estimation from multiple locations on the body. MSPM enables research on remote photoplethysmography (rPPG), respiration rate, and pulse transit time (PTT); it contains ground-truth measurements of pulse oximetry (at multiple body locations) and blood pressure using contacting sensors. We provide thorough experiments demonstrating the suitability of MSPM to support research on rPPG, respiration rate, and PTT. Cross-dataset rPPG experiments reveal that MSPM is a challenging yet high quality dataset, with intra-dataset pulse rate mean absolute error (MAE) below 4 beats per minute (BPM), and cross-dataset pulse rate MAE below 2 BPM in certain cases. Respiration experiments find a MAE of 1.09 breaths per minute by extracting motion features from the chest. PTT experiments find that across the pairs of different body sites, there is high correlation between remote PTT and contact-measured PTT, which facilitates the possibility for future camera-based PTT research.

We propose two novel purpose-built deep learning (DL) models for synthesis of the arterial blood pressure (ABP) waveform in a cuff-less manner, using a single-site photoplethysmography (PPG) signal. We utilize the public UCI dataset on cuff-less blood pressure (CLBP) estimation to train and evaluate our DL models. Firstly, we implement a transformer model that incorporates positional encoding, multi-head attention, layer normalization, and dropout techniques, and synthesizes the ABP waveform with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 14. Secondly, we implement a frequency-domain (FD) learning approach where we first obtain the discrete cosine transform (DCT) coefficients of the PPG and ABP signals corresponding to two cardiac cycles, and then learn a linear/non-linear (L/NL) regression between them. We learn that the FD L/NL regression model outperforms the transformer model by achieving an MAE of 11.87 and 8.01, for diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and systolic blood pressure (SBP), respectively. Our FD L/NL regression model also fulfills the AAMI criterion of utilizing data from more than 85 subjects, and achieves grade B by the BHS criterion.

Speaker profiling, which aims to estimate speaker characteristics such as age and height, has a wide range of applications inforensics, recommendation systems, etc. In this work, we propose a semisupervised learning approach to mitigate the issue of low training data for speaker profiling. This is done by utilizing external corpus with speaker information to train a better representation which can help to improve the speaker profiling systems. Specifically, besides the standard supervised learning path, the proposed framework has two more paths: (1) an unsupervised speaker representation learning path that helps to capture the speaker information; (2) a consistency training path that helps to improve the robustness of the system by enforcing it to produce similar predictions for utterances of the same speaker.The proposed approach is evaluated on the TIMIT and NISP datasets for age, height, and gender estimation, while the Librispeech is used as the unsupervised external corpus. Trained both on single-task and multi-task settings, our approach was able to achieve state-of-the-art results on age estimation on the TIMIT Test dataset with Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) of6.8 and 7.4 years and Mean Absolute Error(MAE) of 4.8 and5.0 years for male and female speakers respectively.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) for mathematical reasoning have largely focused on tasks with easily verifiable final answers; however, generating and verifying natural language math proofs remains an open challenge. We identify the absence of a reliable, fine-grained evaluator for LLM-generated math proofs as a critical gap. To address this, we propose a systematic methodology for developing and validating evaluators that assign fine-grained scores on a 0-7 scale to model-generated math proofs. To enable this study, we introduce ProofBench, the first expert-annotated dataset of fine-grained proof ratings, spanning 145 problems from six major math competitions (USAMO, IMO, Putnam, etc) and 435 LLM-generated solutions from Gemini-2.5-pro, o3, and DeepSeek-R1. %with expert gradings. Using ProofBench as a testbed, we systematically explore the evaluator design space across key axes: the backbone model, input context, instructions and evaluation workflow. Our analysis delivers ProofGrader, an evaluator that combines a strong reasoning backbone LM, rich context from reference solutions and marking schemes, and a simple ensembling method; it achieves a low Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.926 against expert scores, significantly outperforming naive baselines. Finally, we demonstrate its practical utility in a best-of-n selection task: at n=16, ProofGrader achieves an average score of 4.14 (out of 7), closing 78% of the gap between a naive binary evaluator (2.48) and the human oracle (4.62), highlighting its potential to advance downstream proof generation.

Visualization, a domain-specific yet widely used form of imagery, is an effective way to turn complex datasets into intuitive insights, and its value depends on whether data are faithfully represented, clearly communicated, and aesthetically designed. However, evaluating visualization quality is challenging: unlike natural images, it requires simultaneous judgment across data encoding accuracy, information expressiveness, and visual aesthetics. Although multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown promising performance in aesthetic assessment of natural images, no systematic benchmark exists for measuring their capabilities in evaluating visualizations. To address this, we propose VisJudge-Bench, the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating MLLMs' performance in assessing visualization aesthetics and quality. It contains 3,090 expert-annotated samples from real-world scenarios, covering single visualizations, multiple visualizations, and dashboards across 32 chart types. Systematic testing on this benchmark reveals that even the most advanced MLLMs (such as GPT-5) still exhibit significant gaps compared to human experts in judgment, with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.551 and a correlation with human ratings of only 0.429. To address this issue, we propose VisJudge, a model specifically designed for visualization aesthetics and quality assessment. Experimental results demonstrate that VisJudge significantly narrows the gap with human judgment, reducing the MAE to 0.442 (a 19.8% reduction) and increasing the consistency with human experts to 0.681 (a 58.7% improvement) compared to GPT-5. The benchmark is available at https://github.com/HKUSTDial/VisJudgeBench.

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) and scanning laser ophthalmoscopy (SLO) of the eye has become essential to ophthalmology and the emerging field of oculomics, thus requiring a need for transparent, reproducible, and rapid analysis of this data for clinical research and the wider research community. Here, we introduce OCTolyzer, the first open-source toolkit for retinochoroidal analysis in OCT/SLO data. It features two analysis suites for OCT and SLO data, facilitating deep learning-based anatomical segmentation and feature extraction of the cross-sectional retinal and choroidal layers and en face retinal vessels. We describe OCTolyzer and evaluate the reproducibility of its OCT choroid analysis. At the population level, metrics for choroid region thickness were highly reproducible, with a mean absolute error (MAE)/Pearson correlation for macular volume choroid thickness (CT) of 6.7mum/0.99, macular B-scan CT of 11.6mum/0.99, and peripapillary CT of 5.0mum/0.99. Macular choroid vascular index (CVI) also showed strong reproducibility, with MAE/Pearson for volume CVI yielding 0.0271/0.97 and B-scan CVI 0.0130/0.91. At the eye level, measurement noise for regional and vessel metrics was below 5% and 20% of the population's variability, respectively. Outliers were caused by poor-quality B-scans with thick choroids and invisible choroid-sclera boundary. Processing times on a laptop CPU were under three seconds for macular/peripapillary B-scans and 85 seconds for volume scans. OCTolyzer can convert OCT/SLO data into reproducible and clinically meaningful retinochoroidal features and will improve the standardisation of ocular measurements in OCT/SLO image analysis, requiring no specialised training or proprietary software to be used. OCTolyzer is freely available here: https://github.com/jaburke166/OCTolyzer.

In this study, a robust method for 3D pose estimation of immature green apples (fruitlets) in commercial orchards was developed, utilizing the YOLO11(or YOLOv11) object detection and pose estimation algorithm alongside Vision Transformers (ViT) for depth estimation (Dense Prediction Transformer (DPT) and Depth Anything V2). For object detection and pose estimation, performance comparisons of YOLO11 (YOLO11n, YOLO11s, YOLO11m, YOLO11l and YOLO11x) and YOLOv8 (YOLOv8n, YOLOv8s, YOLOv8m, YOLOv8l and YOLOv8x) were made under identical hyperparameter settings among the all configurations. It was observed that YOLO11n surpassed all configurations of YOLO11 and YOLOv8 in terms of box precision and pose precision, achieving scores of 0.91 and 0.915, respectively. Conversely, YOLOv8n exhibited the highest box and pose recall scores of 0.905 and 0.925, respectively. Regarding the mean average precision at 50\% intersection over union (mAP@50), YOLO11s led all configurations with a box mAP@50 score of 0.94, while YOLOv8n achieved the highest pose mAP@50 score of 0.96. In terms of image processing speed, YOLO11n outperformed all configurations with an impressive inference speed of 2.7 ms, significantly faster than the quickest YOLOv8 configuration, YOLOv8n, which processed images in 7.8 ms. Subsequent integration of ViTs for the green fruit's pose depth estimation revealed that Depth Anything V2 outperformed Dense Prediction Transformer in 3D pose length validation, achieving the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 1.52 and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.28, demonstrating exceptional precision in estimating immature green fruit lengths. Integration of YOLO11 and Depth Anything Model provides a promising solution to 3D pose estimation of immature green fruits for robotic thinning applications. (YOLOv11 pose detection, YOLOv11 Pose, YOLOv11 Keypoints detection, YOLOv11 pose estimation)

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in various domains, including healthcare, with significant potential to transform mental health applications by enabling scalable and accessible solutions. This study aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation of 33 LLMs, ranging from 2 billion to 405+ billion parameters, in performing key mental health tasks using social media data across six datasets. To our knowledge, this represents the largest-scale systematic evaluation of modern LLMs for mental health applications. Models such as GPT-4, Llama 3, Claude, Gemma, Gemini, and Phi-3 were assessed for their zero-shot (ZS) and few-shot (FS) capabilities across three tasks: binary disorder detection, disorder severity evaluation, and psychiatric knowledge assessment. Key findings revealed that models like GPT-4 and Llama 3 exhibited superior performance in binary disorder detection, achieving accuracies up to 85% on certain datasets, while FS learning notably enhanced disorder severity evaluations, reducing the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 1.3 points for the Phi-3-mini model. Recent models, such as Llama 3.1 405b, demonstrated exceptional psychiatric knowledge assessment accuracy at 91.2%, while prompt engineering played a crucial role in improving performance across tasks. However, the ethical constraints imposed by many LLM providers limit their ability to respond to sensitive queries, hampering comprehensive performance evaluations. This work highlights both the capabilities and limitations of LLMs in mental health contexts, offering valuable insights for future applications in psychiatry.

Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of ball bearings is an active area of research, where novel machine learning techniques are continuously being applied to predict degradation trends and anticipate failures before they occur. However, few studies have explicitly addressed the challenge of handling censored data, where information about a specific event (\eg mechanical failure) is incomplete or only partially observed. To address this issue, we introduce a novel and flexible method for early fault detection using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and RUL estimation using survival analysis that naturally supports censored data. We demonstrate our approach in the XJTU-SY dataset using a 5-fold cross-validation strategy across three different operating conditions. When predicting the time to failure for bearings under the highest load (C1, 12.0 kN and 2100 RPM) with 25% random censoring, our approach achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 14.7 minutes (95% CI = 13.6-15.8) using a linear CoxPH model, and an MAE of 12.6 minutes (95% CI = 11.8-13.4) using a nonlinear Random Survival Forests model, compared to an MAE of 18.5 minutes (95% CI = 17.4-19.6) using a linear LASSO model that does not support censoring. Moreover, our approach achieves a mean cumulative relative accuracy (CRA) of 0.7586 over 5 bearings under the highest load, which improves over several state-of-the-art baselines. Our work highlights the importance of considering censored data as part of the model design when building predictive models for early fault detection and RUL estimation.

Accurate, continuous out-of-hospital electrocardiogram (ECG) parameter measurement is vital for real-time cardiac health monitoring and telemedicine. On-device computation of single-lead ECG parameters enables timely assessment without reliance on centralized data processing, advancing personalized, ubiquitous cardiac care-yet comprehensive validation across heterogeneous real-world populations remains limited. This study validated the on-device algorithm FeatureDB (https://github.com/PKUDigitalHealth/FeatureDB) using two datasets: HeartVoice-ECG-lite (369 participants with single-lead ECGs annotated by two physicians) and PTB-XL/PTB-XL+ (21,354 patients with 12-lead ECGs and physicians' diagnostic annotations). FeatureDB computed PR, QT, and QTc intervals, with accuracy evaluated against physician annotations via mean absolute error (MAE), correlation analysis, and Bland-Altman analysis. Diagnostic performance for first-degree atrioventricular block (AVBI, PR-based) and long QT syndrome (LQT, QTc-based) was benchmarked against commercial 12-lead systems (12SL, Uni-G) and open-source algorithm Deli, using AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Results showed high concordance with expert annotations (Pearson correlations: 0.836-0.960), MAEs matching inter-observer variability, and minimal bias. AVBI AUC reached 0.787 (12SL: 0.859; Uni-G: 0.812; Deli: 0.501); LQT AUC was 0.684 (12SL: 0.716; Uni-G: 0.605; Deli: 0.569)-comparable to commercial tools and superior to open-source alternatives. FeatureDB delivers physician-level parameter accuracy and commercial-grade abnormality detection via single-lead devices, supporting scalable telemedicine, decentralized cardiac screening, and continuous monitoring in community and outpatient settings.

Age estimation from facial images is a complex and multifaceted challenge in computer vision. In this study, we present a novel hybrid architecture that combines ConvNeXt, a state-of-the-art advancement of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), with Vision Transformers (ViT). While each model independently delivers excellent performance on a variety of tasks, their integration leverages the complementary strengths of the CNNs localized feature extraction capabilities and the Transformers global attention mechanisms. Our proposed ConvNeXt-ViT hybrid solution was thoroughly evaluated on benchmark age estimation datasets, including MORPH II, CACD, and AFAD, and achieved superior performance in terms of mean absolute error (MAE). To address computational constraints, we leverage pre-trained models and systematically explore different configurations, using linear layers and advanced regularization techniques to optimize the architecture. Comprehensive ablation studies highlight the critical role of individual components and training strategies, and in particular emphasize the importance of adapted attention mechanisms within the CNN framework to improve the model focus on age-relevant facial features. The results show that the ConvNeXt-ViT hybrid not only outperforms traditional methods, but also provides a robust foundation for future advances in age estimation and related visual tasks. This work underscores the transformative potential of hybrid architectures and represents a promising direction for the seamless integration of CNNs and transformers to address complex computer vision challenges.

Video photoplethysmography (vPPG) is an emerging method for non-invasive and convenient measurement of physiological signals, utilizing two primary approaches: remote video PPG (rPPG) and contact video PPG (cPPG). Monitoring vitals in high-altitude environments, where heart rates tend to increase and blood oxygen levels often decrease, presents significant challenges. To address these issues, we introduce the SUMS dataset comprising 80 synchronized non-contact facial and contact finger videos from 10 subjects during exercise and oxygen recovery scenarios, capturing PPG, respiration rate (RR), and SpO2. This dataset is designed to validate video vitals estimation algorithms and compare facial rPPG with finger cPPG. Additionally, fusing videos from different positions (i.e., face and finger) reduces the mean absolute error (MAE) of SpO2 predictions by 7.6\% and 10.6\% compared to only face and only finger, respectively. In cross-subject evaluation, we achieve an MAE of less than 0.5 BPM for HR estimation and 2.5\% for SpO2 estimation, demonstrating the precision of our multi-camera fusion techniques. Our findings suggest that simultaneous training on multiple indicators, such as PPG and blood oxygen, can reduce MAE in SpO2 estimation by 17.8\%.

Purpose: The need to streamline patient management for COVID-19 has become more pressing than ever. Chest X-rays provide a non-invasive (potentially bedside) tool to monitor the progression of the disease. In this study, we present a severity score prediction model for COVID-19 pneumonia for frontal chest X-ray images. Such a tool can gauge severity of COVID-19 lung infections (and pneumonia in general) that can be used for escalation or de-escalation of care as well as monitoring treatment efficacy, especially in the ICU. Methods: Images from a public COVID-19 database were scored retrospectively by three blinded experts in terms of the extent of lung involvement as well as the degree of opacity. A neural network model that was pre-trained on large (non-COVID-19) chest X-ray datasets is used to construct features for COVID-19 images which are predictive for our task. Results: This study finds that training a regression model on a subset of the outputs from an this pre-trained chest X-ray model predicts our geographic extent score (range 0-8) with 1.14 mean absolute error (MAE) and our lung opacity score (range 0-6) with 0.78 MAE. Conclusions: These results indicate that our model's ability to gauge severity of COVID-19 lung infections could be used for escalation or de-escalation of care as well as monitoring treatment efficacy, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU). A proper clinical trial is needed to evaluate efficacy. To enable this we make our code, labels, and data available online at https://github.com/mlmed/torchxrayvision/tree/master/scripts/covid-severity and https://github.com/ieee8023/covid-chestxray-dataset

Thousands of diverse benchmarks have been developed to measure the quality of large language models (LLMs). Yet prior work has demonstrated that LLM performance is often sufficiently explained by a small set of latent factors, or abilities. This suggests the potential for more efficient and principled benchmarking, but it remains difficult to compare the quality of different methods. Motivated by predictive validity, we argue that the quality of a benchmarking framework should be grounded in how efficiently it enables the prediction of model performance on unseen tasks. To analyze this objective, we collect the "Wide-scale Item Level Dataset" (WILD), a dataset of item-model response pairs, comprising evaluations of 65 models on 109,564 unique items spanning 163 tasks drawn from 27 datasets. This dataset enables the first analysis of how different techniques can predict a model's performance on a large, diverse collection of unseen tasks under different budget constraints. We demonstrate that combining a modified multidimensional item response theory (IRT) model with adaptive item selection driven by optimal experimental design can predict performance on 112 held-out benchmark tasks with a mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 7%, and can do so after observing only 16 items. We further demonstrate that incorporating cost-aware discount factors into our selection criteria can reduce the total tokens needed to reach 7% MAE from 141,000 tokens to only 22,000, an 85% reduction in evaluation cost.

Visual complexity prediction is a fundamental problem in computer vision with applications in image compression, retrieval, and classification. Understanding what makes humans perceive an image as complex is also a long-standing question in cognitive science. Recent approaches have leveraged multimodal models that combine visual and linguistic representations, but it remains unclear whether language information is necessary for this task. We propose DReX (DINO-ResNet Fusion), a vision-only model that fuses self-supervised and convolutional representations through a learnable attention mechanism to predict image complexity. Our architecture integrates multi-scale hierarchical features from ResNet-50 with semantically rich representations from DINOv3 ViT-S/16, enabling the model to capture both low-level texture patterns and high-level semantic structure. DReX achieves state-of-the-art performance on the IC9600 benchmark (Pearson r = 0.9581), surpassing previous methods--including those trained on multimodal image-text data--while using approximately 21.5x fewer learnable parameters. Furthermore, DReX generalizes robustly across multiple datasets and metrics, achieving superior results on Pearson and Spearman correlation, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Ablation and attention analyses confirm that DReX leverages complementary cues from both backbones, with the DINOv3 [CLS] token enhancing sensitivity to visual complexity. Our findings suggest that visual features alone can be sufficient for human-aligned complexity prediction and that, when properly fused, self-supervised transformers and supervised deep convolutional neural networks offer complementary and synergistic benefits for this task.

Evaluating LLM agents on benchmarks like SWE-Bench and GAIA can be expensive, time-consuming, and requires complex infrastructure. A single evaluation can cost thousands of dollars and take days to complete. In contrast, non-agentic LLM benchmarks that test individual capabilities (e.g., reasoning, code generation) are fast and cheap to run. In this paper, we investigate whether performance on expensive agentic benchmarks can be accurately predicted by the performance on a small, carefully selected subset of atomic evaluation instances. We introduce PACE, a framework that constructs proxy benchmarks by selecting instances from existing non-agentic evaluations whose aggregate scores most reliably predict model performances on agentic benchmarks. Given a pool of candidate instances spanning atomic capabilities, PACE fits a regression that maps a model's scores on a compact subset of source instances to its score on the target agentic benchmark. The subset itself is curated by combining two complementary instance-selection strategies, target-relevance local selection and globally informative global selection. We apply PACE to the 4 target agentic benchmarks in this paper, which yields PACE-Bench, the concrete proxy benchmark that we evaluate in the paper. Experiments across 14 models, 4 agentic benchmarks, and 19 non-agentic benchmarks show that PACE-Bench predicts agentic scores with leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) mean absolute error (MAE) under 4%, Spearman correlation above 0.80, and pairwise model-ranking accuracy around 85%, all at much less than 1% of the full agentic evaluation cost. We further analyze the selected proxy instances, revealing which skills each agentic benchmark uniquely demands. PACE enables practitioners to obtain reliable estimates of agentic performance during model development, selection, and routing, without the overhead of full agent evaluation.

Recent advancements in Spatial Transcriptomics (ST) technology have facilitated detailed gene expression analysis within tissue contexts. However, the high costs and methodological limitations of ST necessitate a more robust predictive model. In response, this paper introduces TRIPLEX, a novel deep learning framework designed to predict spatial gene expression from Whole Slide Images (WSIs). TRIPLEX uniquely harnesses multi-resolution features, capturing cellular morphology at individual spots, the local context around these spots, and the global tissue organization. By integrating these features through an effective fusion strategy, TRIPLEX achieves accurate gene expression prediction. Our comprehensive benchmark study, conducted on three public ST datasets and supplemented with Visium data from 10X Genomics, demonstrates that TRIPLEX outperforms current state-of-the-art models in Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Pearson Correlation Coefficient (PCC). The model's predictions align closely with ground truth gene expression profiles and tumor annotations, underscoring TRIPLEX's potential in advancing cancer diagnosis and treatment.

Remote sensing images often suffer from substantial data loss due to factors such as thick cloud cover and sensor limitations. Existing methods for imputing missing values in remote sensing images fail to fully exploit spatiotemporal auxiliary information, which restricts the accuracy of their reconstructions. To address this issue, this paper proposes a novel deep learning-based approach called MS2TAN (Multi-Scale Masked Spatial-Temporal Attention Network) for reconstructing time-series remote sensing images. First, we introduce an efficient spatiotemporal feature extractor based on Masked Spatial-Temporal Attention (MSTA) to capture high-quality representations of spatiotemporal neighborhood features surrounding missing regions while significantly reducing the computational complexity of the attention mechanism. Second, a Multi-Scale Restoration Network composed of MSTA-based Feature Extractors is designed to progressively refine missing values by exploring spatiotemporal neighborhood features at different scales. Third, we propose a "Pixel-Structure-Perception" Multi-Objective Joint Optimization method to enhance the visual quality of the reconstructed results from multiple perspectives and to preserve more texture structures. Finally, quantitative experimental results under multi-temporal inputs on two public datasets demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms competitive approaches, achieving a 9.76%/9.30% reduction in Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and a 0.56 dB/0.62 dB increase in Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR), along with stronger texture and structural consistency. Ablation experiments further validate the contribution of the core innovations to imputation accuracy.

Financial sentiment analysis plays a crucial role in decoding market trends and guiding strategic trading decisions. Despite the deployment of advanced deep learning techniques and language models to refine sentiment analysis in finance, this study breaks new ground by investigating the potential of large language models, particularly ChatGPT 3.5, in financial sentiment analysis, with a strong emphasis on the foreign exchange market (forex). Employing a zero-shot prompting approach, we examine multiple ChatGPT prompts on a meticulously curated dataset of forex-related news headlines, measuring performance using metrics such as precision, recall, f1-score, and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of the sentiment class. Additionally, we probe the correlation between predicted sentiment and market returns as an additional evaluation approach. ChatGPT, compared to FinBERT, a well-established sentiment analysis model for financial texts, exhibited approximately 35\% enhanced performance in sentiment classification and a 36\% higher correlation with market returns. By underlining the significance of prompt engineering, particularly in zero-shot contexts, this study spotlights ChatGPT's potential to substantially boost sentiment analysis in financial applications. By sharing the utilized dataset, our intention is to stimulate further research and advancements in the field of financial services.

Neural scaling laws predict how language model performance improves with increased training inputs. While aggregate metrics like validation loss can follow smooth power-law curves, individual downstream tasks exhibit diverse scaling behaviors: some improve monotonically, others plateau, and some even degrade with scale. We argue that predicting downstream performance from validation loss suffers from two limitations: averaging token-level losses obscures signal, and no simple parametric family can capture the full spectrum of scaling behaviors. To address this, we propose Neural Neural Scaling Laws (NeuNeu), a neural network that frames scaling law prediction as time-series extrapolation. NeuNeu combines temporal context from observed accuracy trajectories with token-level validation losses, learning to predict future performance without the limitations inherent in assuming a specific functional form. Trained entirely on open-source model checkpoints from HuggingFace, NeuNeu achieves 1.99% mean absolute error in predicting model accuracy on 66 downstream tasks -- a 44% reduction compared to logistic scaling laws (3.56% MAE). Furthermore, NeuNeu generalizes zero-shot to unseen model families, architectures, parameter counts, and downstream tasks. Our work suggests that predicting downstream scaling directly from data outperforms parametric alternatives.

We present an end-to-end pipeline for estimating stellar parameters from Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 12 spectra using a fully connected multitask neural network with residual blocks, whose hyperparameters are tuned via Bayesian optimization. The preprocessing pipeline includes per-spectrum standardization, RobustScaler normalization of the target variables -- effective temperature T_{eff}, metallicity [Fe/H], and surface gravity log g -- and data augmentation via Gaussian noise injection. On a held-out test set, the model achieved Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) of 59.76~K for T_{eff}, 0.103~dex for [Fe/H], and 0.130~dex for log g. Normalized against the full-scale range of each parameter, these results represent range-normalized errors between 1% and 3%, achieved with a highly efficient model complexity of approximately 540,000 trainable parameters. These results demonstrate that a compact residual multitask architecture, combined with principled signal preprocessing, provides a parameter-efficient solution for nonlinear parameter estimation in large-scale spectral datasets. In particular, the proposed model achieves competitive performance with substantially lower complexity than deeper neural network baselines.

Incremental-text streaming text-to-speech (TTS) needs online text progress tracking for synchronized highlighting, interruption handling, and dialogue-history updates. Input text arrives before it is spoken, so text arrival alone cannot indicate speech progress. Existing waveform-based alignment requires complete audio or adds acoustic processing during streaming. We propose X2-NativeCursor, a lightweight observer that tracks progress from native speech tokens before waveform decoding without changing the TTS generator. Its normalization plan links spoken labels to their original-text spans. Text and native-token encoders feed a local matcher that estimates the current label position. A separate output rule converts revisable position estimates into a cursor that never moves backward. Mean absolute error against an automatic reference is 0.151 Chinese characters with 80-ms lookahead, versus 1.253 characters with 320-ms lookahead for an online waveform baseline. Alignment real-time factor also decreases from 0.3598 to 0.0180 relative to this baseline. Lower tracking error is retained under a second automatic alignment reference. We evaluate X2-NativeCursor on Qwen3-TTS and validate its adaptation to CosyVoice2 by training a separate observer for each backbone. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/X-Square-Robot/X2Streaming-TTS.

Feed-forward 3D foundation models reconstruct perspective scenes in one pass. Satellite photogrammetry needs a different product, one that domain adaptation alone does not deliver: dense surface height in an absolute geodetic frame under non-central rational polynomial cameras (RPCs). Perspective-pretrained features are not reliably observable along RPC height rays, absolute elevation carries a low-order height--datum gauge exchangeable with sensor bias to first order, and monocular and multi-view cues fail in different regions. treats all three. Lightweight ray-consistent adapters make a frozen backbone matchable along native RPC rays. An explicit datum mechanism separates relief from absolute level and is equivariant to the vertical origin by construction, so one trained model serves zero-, one-, and sparse-control inference. Calibrated inverse-variance fusion combines the two relief streams. , our absolute-frame benchmark of eighteen systems across in-domain, cross-dataset, and cross-city tiers, scores absolute placement without registration or test-reference leakage. On 26 held-out US3D tiles, attains 2.99\,m absolute MAE at 91.9% coverage, improves completeness-aware accuracy by 46.4 points over the strongest compliant feed-forward baseline, remains the most accurate such system under both transfer shifts, and runs in 24\,s model-forward time per tile. Code and models will be released at https://github.com/HIT-SIRS/GeoRay

Masked Autoencoder~(MAE) is a prevailing self-supervised learning method that achieves promising results in model pre-training. However, when the various downstream tasks have data distributions different from the pre-training data, the semantically irrelevant pre-training information might result in negative transfer, impeding MAE's scalability. To address this issue, we propose a novel MAE-based pre-training paradigm, Mixture of Cluster-conditional Experts (MoCE), which can be trained once but provides customized pre-training models for diverse downstream tasks. Different from the mixture of experts (MoE), our MoCE trains each expert only with semantically relevant images by using cluster-conditional gates. Thus, each downstream task can be allocated to its customized model pre-trained with data most similar to the downstream data. Experiments on a collection of 11 downstream tasks show that MoCE outperforms the vanilla MAE by 2.45\% on average. It also obtains new state-of-the-art self-supervised learning results on detection and segmentation.

RTK-SLAM systems integrate simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) with real-time kinematic (RTK) GNSS positioning, promising both relative consistency and globally referenced coordinates for efficient georeferenced surveying. A critical and underappreciated issue is that the standard evaluation metric, Absolute Trajectory Error (ATE), first fits an optimal rigid-body transformation between the estimated trajectory and reference before computing errors. This so-called SE(3) alignment absorbs global drift and systematic errors, making trajectories appear more accurate than they are in practice, and is unsuitable for evaluating the global accuracy of RTK-SLAM. We present a geodetically referenced dataset and evaluation methodology that expose this gap. A key design principle is that the RTK receiver is used solely as a system input, while ground truth is established independently via a geodetic total station. This separation is absent from all existing datasets, where GNSS typically serves as (part of) the ground truth. The dataset is collected with a handheld RTK-SLAM device, comprising two scenes. We evaluate LiDAR-inertial, visual-inertial, and LiDAR-visual-inertial RTK-SLAM systems alongside standalone RTK, reporting direct global accuracy and SE(3)-aligned relative accuracy to make the gap explicit. Results show that SE(3) alignment can underestimate absolute positioning error by up to 76\%. RTK-SLAM achieves centimeter-level absolute accuracy in open-sky conditions and maintains decimeter-level global accuracy indoors, where standalone RTK degrades to tens of meters. The dataset, calibration files, and evaluation scripts are publicly available at https://rtk-slam-dataset.github.io/.

Age estimation has attracted attention for its various medical applications. There are many studies on human age estimation from biomedical images. However, there is no research done on mammograms for age estimation, as far as we know. The purpose of this study is to devise an AI-based model for estimating age from mammogram images. Due to lack of public mammography data sets that have the age attribute, we resort to using a web crawler to download thumbnail mammographic images and their age fields from the public data set; the Digital Database for Screening Mammography. The original images in this data set unfortunately can only be retrieved by a software which is broken. Subsequently, we extracted deep learning features from the collected data set, by which we built a model using Random Forests regressor to estimate the age automatically. The performance assessment was measured using the mean absolute error values. The average error value out of 10 tests on random selection of samples was around 8 years. In this paper, we show the merits of this approach to fill up missing age values. We ran logistic and linear regression models on another independent data set to further validate the advantage of our proposed work. This paper also introduces the free-access Mini-DDSM data set.

Coronary angiography is the reference standard for evaluating coronary artery disease, yet visual interpretation remains variable between readers. Existing artificial intelligence methods typically analyze single frames or projections and focus mainly on stenosis, limiting comprehensive coronary assessment. We present DeepCORO-CLIP, a multi-view foundation model trained with video-text contrastive learning on 203,808 angiography videos from 28,117 patients across 32,473 studies at the Montreal Heart Institute and externally validated on 4,249 studies from the University of California, San Francisco. DeepCORO-CLIP integrates multiple projections with attention-based pooling for study-level assessment across diagnostic, prognostic, and disease progression tasks. For significant stenosis detection, the model achieved an AUROC of 0.888 internally and 0.89 on external validation. Mean absolute error against core laboratory quantitative coronary angiography was 13.6%, lower than clinical reports at 19.0%. The model also performed strongly for chronic total occlusion, intracoronary thrombus, and coronary calcification detection. Transfer learning enabled prediction of one-year major adverse cardiovascular events with AUROC 0.79 and estimation of left ventricular ejection fraction with mean absolute error 7.3%. Embeddings also captured disease progression across serial examinations. With a mean inference time of 4.2 seconds in hospital deployment, DeepCORO-CLIP provides a foundation for automated coronary angiography interpretation at the point of care. Code, sample data, model weights, and deployment infrastructure are publicly released.

Recent advances in Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have improved performance in multi-modal learning, raising the question of whether these models truly understand the content they process. Crucially, can VLMs detect when a reasoning process is wrong and identify its error type? To answer this, we present MMErroR, a multi-modal benchmark of 2,013 samples, each embedding a single coherent reasoning error. These samples span 24 subdomains across six top-level domains, ensuring broad coverage and taxonomic richness. Unlike existing benchmarks that focus on answer correctness, MMErroR targets a process-level, error-centric evaluation that requires models to detect incorrect reasoning and classify the error type within both visual and linguistic contexts. We evaluate 20 advanced VLMs, even the best model (Gemini-3.0-Pro) classifies the error in only 66.47\% of cases, underscoring the challenge of identifying erroneous reasoning. Furthermore, the ability to accurately identify errors offers valuable insights into the capabilities of multi-modal reasoning models. Project Page: https://mmerror-benchmark.github.io

A new privacy-preserving federated learning framework allowing laser manufacturers to collaboratively build a robust ML-based laser lifetime prediction model, is proposed. It achieves a mean absolute error of 0.1 years and a significant performance improvement

Instruction tuned reasoning models are increasingly deployed with safety classifiers trained on frozen embeddings, assuming representation stability across model updates. We systematically investigate this assumption and find it fails: normalized perturbations of magnitude σ=0.02 (corresponding to approx 1^circ angular drift on the embedding sphere) reduce classifier performance from 85% to 50% ROC-AUC. Critically, mean confidence only drops 14%, producing dangerous silent failures where 72% of misclassifications occur with high confidence, defeating standard monitoring. We further show that instruction-tuned models exhibit 20% worse class separability than base models, making aligned systems paradoxically harder to safeguard. Our findings expose a fundamental fragility in production AI safety architectures and challenge the assumption that safety mechanisms transfer across model versions.

We estimate ([M/H], [alpha/M]) for 48 million giants and dwarfs in low-dust extinction regions from the Gaia DR3 XP spectra by using tree-based machine-learning models trained on APOGEE DR17 and metal-poor star sample from Li et al. The root mean square error of our estimation is 0.0890 dex for [M/H] and 0.0436 dex for [alpha/M], when we evaluate our models on the test data that are not used in training the models. Because the training data is dominated by giants, our estimation is most reliable for giants. The high-[alpha/M] stars and low-[alpha/M] stars selected by our ([M/H], [alpha/M]) show different kinematical properties for giants and low-temperature dwarfs. We further investigate how our machine-learning models extract information on ([M/H], [alpha/M]). Intriguingly, we find that our models seem to extract information on [alpha/M] from Na D lines (589 nm) and Mg I line (516 nm). This result is understandable given the observed correlation between Na and Mg abundances in the literature. The catalog of ([M/H], [alpha/M]) as well as their associated uncertainties are publicly available online.

As machine translation (MT) metrics improve their correlation with human judgement every year, it is crucial to understand the limitations of such metrics at the segment level. Specifically, it is important to investigate metric behaviour when facing accuracy errors in MT because these can have dangerous consequences in certain contexts (e.g., legal, medical). We curate ACES, a translation accuracy challenge set, consisting of 68 phenomena ranging from simple perturbations at the word/character level to more complex errors based on discourse and real-world knowledge. We use ACES to evaluate a wide range of MT metrics including the submissions to the WMT 2022 metrics shared task and perform several analyses leading to general recommendations for metric developers. We recommend: a) combining metrics with different strengths, b) developing metrics that give more weight to the source and less to surface-level overlap with the reference and c) explicitly modelling additional language-specific information beyond what is available via multilingual embeddings.

This work presents the first quantitative study of alignment errors between small uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS) geospatial imagery and a priori building polygons and finds that alignment errors are non-uniform and irregular. The work also introduces a publicly available dataset of imagery, building polygons, and human-generated and curated adjustments that can be used to evaluate existing strategies for aligning building polygons with sUAS imagery. There are no efforts that have aligned pre-existing spatial data with sUAS imagery, and thus, there is no clear state of practice. However, this effort and analysis show that the translational alignment errors present in this type of data, averaging 82px and an intersection over the union of 0.65, which would induce further errors and biases in downstream machine learning systems unless addressed. This study identifies and analyzes the translational alignment errors of 21,619 building polygons in fifty-one orthomosaic images, covering 16787.2 Acres (26.23 square miles), constructed from sUAS raw imagery from nine wide-area disasters (Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Michael, Hurricane Ida, Hurricane Idalia, Hurricane Laura, the Mayfield Tornado, the Musset Bayou Fire, and the Kilauea Eruption). The analysis finds no uniformity among the angle and distance metrics of the building polygon alignments as they present an average degree variance of 0.4 and an average pixel distance variance of 0.45. This work alerts the sUAS community to the problem of spatial alignment and that a simple linear transform, often used to align satellite imagery, will not be sufficient to align spatial data in sUAS orthomosaic imagery.

Large Language Models (LLM) benchmarks tell us when models fail, but not why they fail. A wrong answer on a reasoning dataset may stem from formatting issues, calculation errors, or dataset noise rather than weak reasoning. Without disentangling such causes, benchmarks remain incomplete and cannot reliably guide model improvement. We introduce ErrorMap, the first method to chart the sources of LLM failure. It extracts a model's unique "failure signature", clarifies what benchmarks measure, and broadens error identification to reduce blind spots. This helps developers debug models, aligns benchmark goals with outcomes, and supports informed model selection. ErrorMap works on any model or dataset with the same logic. Applying our method to 35 datasets and 83 models we generate ErrorAtlas, a taxonomy of model errors, revealing recurring failure patterns. ErrorAtlas highlights error types that are currently underexplored in LLM research, such as omissions of required details in the output and question misinterpretation. By shifting focus from where models succeed to why they fail, ErrorMap and ErrorAtlas enable advanced evaluation - one that exposes hidden weaknesses and directs progress. Unlike success, typically measured by task-level metrics, our approach introduces a deeper evaluation layer that can be applied globally across models and tasks, offering richer insights into model behavior and limitations. We make the taxonomy and code publicly available with plans to periodically update ErrorAtlas as new benchmarks and models emerge.

A sample of 60,410 bona fide optical quasars with astrometric proper motions in Gaia EDR3 and spectroscopic redshifts above 0.5 in an oval 8400 square degree area of the sky is constructed. Using orthogonal Zernike functions of polar coordinates, the proper motion fields are fitted in a weighted least-squares adjustment of the entire sample and of six equal bins of sorted redshifts. The overall fit with 37 Zernike functions reveals a statistically significant pattern, which is likely to be of instrumental origin. The main feature of this pattern is a chain of peaks and dips mostly in the R.A. component with an amplitude of 25~muas yr^{-1}. This field is subtracted from each of the six analogous fits for quasars grouped by redshifts covering the range 0.5 through 7.03, with median values 0.72, 1.00, 1.25, 1.52, 1.83, 2.34. The resulting residual patterns are noisier, with formal uncertainties up to 8~muas yr^{-1} in the central part of the area. We detect a single high-confidence Zernike term for R.A. proper motion components of quasars with redshifts around 1.52 representing a general gradient of 30 muas yr^{-1} over 150degr on the sky. We do not find any small- or medium-scale systemic variations of the residual proper motion field as functions of redshift above the 2.5,sigma significance level.

Metric validation in Grammatical Error Correction (GEC) is currently done by observing the correlation between human and metric-induced rankings. However, such correlation studies are costly, methodologically troublesome, and suffer from low inter-rater agreement. We propose MAEGE, an automatic methodology for GEC metric validation, that overcomes many of the difficulties with existing practices. Experiments with \maege\ shed a new light on metric quality, showing for example that the standard M^2 metric fares poorly on corpus-level ranking. Moreover, we use MAEGE to perform a detailed analysis of metric behavior, showing that correcting some types of errors is consistently penalized by existing metrics.

Critical Error Detection (CED) in machine translation aims to determine whether a translation is safe to use or contains unacceptable deviations in meaning. While the WMT21 English-German CED dataset provided the first benchmark, it is limited in scale, label balance, domain coverage, and temporal freshness. We present SynCED-EnDe, a new resource consisting of 1,000 gold-labeled and 8,000 silver-labeled sentence pairs, balanced 50/50 between error and non-error cases. SynCED-EnDe draws from diverse 2024-2025 sources (StackExchange, GOV.UK) and introduces explicit error subclasses, structured trigger flags, and fine-grained auxiliary judgments (obviousness, severity, localization complexity, contextual dependency, adequacy deviation). These enrichments enable systematic analyses of error risk and intricacy beyond binary detection. The dataset is permanently hosted on GitHub and Hugging Face, accompanied by documentation, annotation guidelines, and baseline scripts. Benchmark experiments with XLM-R and related encoders show substantial performance gains over WMT21 due to balanced labels and refined annotations. We envision SynCED-EnDe as a community resource to advance safe deployment of MT in information retrieval and conversational assistants, particularly in emerging contexts such as wearable AI devices.

Heart diseases remain the leading cause of mortality worldwide, implying approximately 18 million deaths according to the WHO. In particular, heart failures (HF) press the healthcare industry to develop systems for their early, rapid, and effective prediction. This work presents an automatic system based on a novel framework which combines Modal Decomposition and Masked Autoencoders (MAE) to extend the application from heart disease classification to the more challenging and specific task of heart failure time prediction, not previously addressed to the best of authors' knowledge. This system comprises two stages. The first one transforms the data from a database of echocardiography video sequences into a large collection of annotated images compatible with the training phase of machine learning-based frameworks and deep learning-based ones. This stage includes the use of the Higher Order Dynamic Mode Decomposition (HODMD) algorithm for both data augmentation and feature extraction. The second stage builds and trains a Vision Transformer (ViT). MAEs based on a combined scheme of self-supervised (SSL) and supervised learning, so far barely explored in the literature about heart failure prediction, are adopted to effectively train the ViT from scratch, even with scarce databases. The designed neural network analyses in real-time images from echocardiography sequences to estimate the time of happening a heart failure. This approach demonstrates to improve prediction accuracy from scarce databases and to be superior to several established ViT and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) architectures. The source code will be incorporated into the next version release of the ModelFLOWs-app software (https://github.com/modelflows/ModelFLOWs-app).

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete view of the model's prediction quality and performance. We propose a new metric, Average Mahalanobis Distance (AMD) to tackle this issue. AMD is a metric that quantifies how close the whole generated samples are to the ground truth. We also introduce the Average Maximum Eigenvalue (AMV) metric that quantifies the overall spread of the predictions. Our metrics are validated empirically by showing that the ADE/FDE is not sensitive to distribution shifts, giving a biased sense of accuracy, unlike the AMD/AMV metrics. We introduce the usage of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) as a replacement for traditional generative models to train our model, Social-Implicit. IMLE training mechanism aligns with AMD/AMV objective of predicting trajectories that are close to the ground truth with a tight spread. Social-Implicit is a memory efficient deep model with only 5.8K parameters that runs in real time of about 580Hz and achieves competitive results. Interactive demo of the problem can be seen at https://www.abduallahmohamed.com/social-implicit-amdamv-adefde-demo . Code is available at https://github.com/abduallahmohamed/Social-Implicit .

The Kov\'ats Retention index (RI) is a quantity measured using gas chromatography and commonly used in the identification of chemical structures. Creating libraries of observed RI values is a laborious task, so we explore the use of a deep neural network for predicting RI values from structure for standard semipolar columns. This network generated predictions with a mean absolute error of 15.1 and, in a quantification of the tail of the error distribution, a 95th percentile absolute error of 46.5. Because of the Artificial Intelligence Retention Indices (AIRI) network's accuracy, it was used to predict RI values for the NIST EI-MS spectral libraries. These RI values are used to improve chemical identification methods and the quality of the library. Estimating uncertainty is an important practical need when using prediction models. To quantify the uncertainty of our network for each individual prediction, we used the outputs of an ensemble of 8 networks to calculate a predicted standard deviation for each RI value prediction. This predicted standard deviation was corrected to follow the error between observed and predicted RI values. The Z scores using these predicted standard deviations had a standard deviation of 1.52 and a 95th percentile absolute Z score corresponding to a mean RI value of 42.6.

In the era of mega-constellations, the need for accurate and publicly available information has become fundamental for satellite operators to guarantee the safety of spacecrafts and the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) space environment. This study critically evaluates the accuracy and reliability of publicly available ephemeris data for a LEO mega-constellation - Starlink. The goal of this work is twofold: (i) compare and analyze the quality of the data against high-precision numerical propagation. (ii) Leverage Physics-Informed Machine Learning to extract relevant satellite quantities, such as non-conservative forces, during the decay process. By analyzing two months of real orbital data for approximately 1500 Starlink satellites, we identify discrepancies between high precision numerical algorithms and the published ephemerides, recognizing the use of simplified dynamics at fixed thresholds, planned maneuvers, and limitations in uncertainty propagations. Furthermore, we compare data obtained from multiple sources to track and analyze deorbiting satellites over the same period. Empirically, we extract the acceleration profile of satellites during deorbiting and provide insights relating to the effects of non-conservative forces during reentry. For non-deorbiting satellites, the position Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was approximately 300 m, while for deorbiting satellites it increased to about 600 m. Through this in-depth analysis, we highlight potential limitations in publicly available data for accurate and robust Space Situational Awareness (SSA), and importantly, we propose a data-driven model of satellite decay in mega-constellations.

Temporal question answering is an established method for evaluating temporal reasoning in large language models. Expected answers are often numeric (e.g., dates or durations), yet model responses are evaluated like regular text with exact match (EM), unable to distinguish small from large errors. In this investigative work, we frame temporal question answering as a numerical estimation task to assess the shortcomings of EM. We introduce TempAnswerQA, a benchmark distilled from Test of Time and TempTabQA, where all questions require a numerical, temporal answer, allowing us to evaluate models beyond EM. We use the forecasting metrics symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). With sMAPE, we find that error size and EM are decoupled. Models with low EM still have low sMAPE (both ~20%), and some models have high sMAPE despite high EM. Scaling errors by the deviation of the ground truth data with MASE reshuffles model rankings compared to EM, revealing gaps in models' understanding of temporal domain knowledge, especially when trained with synthetic data. Lastly, the models' most frequent error is to deviate by only pm1 from the ground truth. sMAPE and MASE, unlike EM, adequately weight these errors. Our findings underscore the need for specialised metrics for temporal QA tasks. Code and data are available on https://github.com/aauss/temporal-answer-qa.

A paraphrase-quality audit of MathCheck (ICLR 2025) detected 4 semantically incorrect paraphrases in 129 groups (3.1%); removing them drops GPT-4o from rank 2 to rank 4 and elevates Claude Haiku and DeepSeek V3 above it; these ranking changes are invisible to any single-model evaluation. Cross-model unanimity found these errors automatically (>= 3/4 models for MathCheck; >= 6/9 for our primary evaluation) for under $10; in our own dataset the same protocol found that 47% of auto-generated connective-variation paraphrases were semantically incorrect. That flaw compounds a deeper measurement gap: Claude Haiku 4.5 achieves 86% accuracy yet SCR=50%, meaning half its theorems are answered differently under semantically equivalent restatements, while aggregate accuracy across 9 models spans only 86-96% yet Semantic Consistency Rates (SCR) span 50-82% -- a 32-point gap invisible to standard benchmarks. Formally, for any target ranking over 9 frontier models there exists a weighting over paraphrase families that realizes it (No-Free-Benchmark corollary), because no model Pareto-dominates all families -- so benchmark designers who select families are implicitly choosing which model wins. FormInv supplies the audit protocol (replicated on external benchmarks at 100% recall), SCR and per-theorem Cochran's Q as primary invariance measures evaluated on 9 models across 366-811 items (on Lean4-verified theorems), and FormInvSelector for regime-aware model selection.

The year 2024 marks the 10th anniversary of the Multidimensional Quality Metrics (MQM) framework for analytic translation quality evaluation. The MQM error typology has been widely used by practitioners in the translation and localization industry and has served as the basis for many derivative projects. The annual Conference on Machine Translation (WMT) shared tasks on both human and automatic translation quality evaluations used the MQM error typology. The metric stands on two pillars: error typology and the scoring model. The scoring model calculates the quality score from annotation data, detailing how to convert error type and severity counts into numeric scores to determine if the content meets specifications. Previously, only the raw scoring model had been published. This April, the MQM Council published the Linear Calibrated Scoring Model, officially presented herein, along with the Non-Linear Scoring Model, which had not been published before. This paper details the latest MQM developments and presents a universal approach to translation quality measurement across three sample size ranges. It also explains why Statistical Quality Control should be used for very small sample sizes, starting from a single sentence.

PURPOSE: Surgical workflow and skill analysis are key technologies for the next generation of cognitive surgical assistance systems. These systems could increase the safety of the operation through context-sensitive warnings and semi-autonomous robotic assistance or improve training of surgeons via data-driven feedback. In surgical workflow analysis up to 91% average precision has been reported for phase recognition on an open data single-center dataset. In this work we investigated the generalizability of phase recognition algorithms in a multi-center setting including more difficult recognition tasks such as surgical action and surgical skill. METHODS: To achieve this goal, a dataset with 33 laparoscopic cholecystectomy videos from three surgical centers with a total operation time of 22 hours was created. Labels included annotation of seven surgical phases with 250 phase transitions, 5514 occurences of four surgical actions, 6980 occurences of 21 surgical instruments from seven instrument categories and 495 skill classifications in five skill dimensions. The dataset was used in the 2019 Endoscopic Vision challenge, sub-challenge for surgical workflow and skill analysis. Here, 12 teams submitted their machine learning algorithms for recognition of phase, action, instrument and/or skill assessment. RESULTS: F1-scores were achieved for phase recognition between 23.9% and 67.7% (n=9 teams), for instrument presence detection between 38.5% and 63.8% (n=8 teams), but for action recognition only between 21.8% and 23.3% (n=5 teams). The average absolute error for skill assessment was 0.78 (n=1 team). CONCLUSION: Surgical workflow and skill analysis are promising technologies to support the surgical team, but are not solved yet, as shown by our comparison of algorithms. This novel benchmark can be used for comparable evaluation and validation of future work.

Multi-agent systems (MAS) are increasingly capable of tackling complex real-world tasks, yet their reliance on inter-agent coordination, tool use, and long-horizon reasoning makes error recognition particularly challenging. Minor errors can propagate across agents, escalating into task failures while producing long, intertwined execution trajectories that impose significant costs for both human developers and automated systems to debug and analyze. Our key insight is that, despite surface differences in failure trajectories (e.g., logs), MAS errors often recur with similar structural patterns. This paper presents CORRECT, the first lightweight, training-free framework that leverages an online cache of distilled error schemata to recognize and transfer knowledge of failure structures across new requests. This cache-based reuse allows LLMs to perform targeted error localization at inference time, avoiding the need for expensive retraining while adapting to dynamic MAS deployments in subseconds. To support rigorous study in this domain, we also introduce CORRECT-Error, a large-scale dataset of over 2,000 annotated trajectories collected through a novel error-injection pipeline guided by real-world distributions, and further validated through human evaluation to ensure alignment with natural failure patterns. Experiments across seven diverse MAS applications show that CORRECT improves step-level error localization up to 19.8% over existing advances while at near-zero overhead, substantially narrowing the gap between automated and human-level error recognition.

Motion artefacts in magnetic resonance brain images can have a strong impact on diagnostic confidence. The assessment of MR image quality is fundamental before proceeding with the clinical diagnosis. Motion artefacts can alter the delineation of structures such as the brain, lesions or tumours and may require a repeat scan. Otherwise, an inaccurate (e.g. correct pathology but wrong severity) or incorrect diagnosis (e.g. wrong pathology) may occur. "Image quality assessment" as a fast, automated step right after scanning can assist in deciding if the acquired images are diagnostically sufficient. An automated image quality assessment based on the structural similarity index (SSIM) regression through a residual neural network is proposed in this work. Additionally, a classification into different groups - by subdividing with SSIM ranges - is evaluated. Importantly, this method predicts SSIM values of an input image in the absence of a reference ground truth image. The networks were able to detect motion artefacts, and the best performance for the regression and classification task has always been achieved with ResNet-18 with contrast augmentation. The mean and standard deviation of residuals' distribution were mu=-0.0009 and sigma=0.0139, respectively. Whilst for the classification task in 3, 5 and 10 classes, the best accuracies were 97, 95 and 89\%, respectively. The results show that the proposed method could be a tool for supporting neuro-radiologists and radiographers in evaluating image quality quickly.

Masked autoencoders (MAEs) are increasingly applied to electronic health records (EHR) for learning general-purpose representations that support diverse clinical tasks. However, existing approaches typically rely on uniform random masking, implicitly assuming all features are equally predictable. In reality, laboratory tests exhibit substantial heterogeneity in volatility: some biomarkers (e.g., sodium) remain stable, while others (e.g., lactate) fluctuate considerably and are more difficult to model. Clinically, volatile biomarkers often signal acute pathophysiology and require more sophisticated modeling to capture their complex temporal patterns. We propose a volatility-aware pretraining strategy, Coefficient of Variation Masking (CV-Masking), that adaptively adjusts masking probabilities according to the intrinsic variability of each feature. Combined with a value-only masking objective aligned with clinical workflows, CV-Masking yields systematic improvements over random and variance-based strategies. Experiments on a large panel of laboratory tests show that CV-Masking enhances reconstruction, improves downstream predictive performance, and accelerates convergence, producing more robust and clinically meaningful EHR representations.

Majority voting over multiple LLM attempts improves mathematical reasoning, but correlated errors limit the effective sample size. A natural fix is to assign different reasoning strategies to different voters. The approach, Diverse Prompt Mixer, is tested on the AIMO 3 competition: 3 models, 23+ experiments, 50 IMO-level problems, one H100 80 GB, 5-hour limit. Every prompt-level intervention fails. High-temperature sampling already decorrelates errors; weaker strategies reduce accuracy more than they reduce correlation. Across an 8-point capability gap at equal N=8 and every optimization tested, model capability dominates. The gap between the best majority-vote score (42/50) and pass@20 (~45.5) is selection loss, not prompt loss. A verifier-based selector could close it. Prompt engineering cannot.

AI systems can fail silently. The failure propagates through training loops, evaluation pipelines, and production monitoring stacks until downstream harm makes it visible. This paper introduces evaluation blindness: a measurement function M exhibits evaluation blindness with respect to failure class F when it produces readings indistinguishable from a healthy state while the system is actually failing, with no auxiliary signal flagging the gap. The problem surfaces at two lifecycle stages the literature has treated separately. At training time, reward models are gamed, importance-sampling corrections are silently miscalculated, and benchmark contamination inflates fine-tuning evaluations, all while loss curves look healthy and gradient updates proceed normally. At deployment time, monitoring fails to catch six classes of production failure, including an Operational category that is 100% silent by structural definition. We provide a formal detectability predicate unifying both stages. Four training-time case studies trace concrete breakdowns, including a real implementation bug in TRL PR #6594 where gradients are corrupted as loss decreases normally. A six-class taxonomy validated against 50 real-world incidents from court documents and regulatory filings finds that 53% of verifiable public failures were silent. A failure budget framework ties acceptable failure rates to use-case risk class. The implication is direct: measurement infrastructure is a correctness concern across the full AI lifecycle, not just at evaluation time. Data, code, and taxonomy schema are at https://github.com/priyanka25aug/llm-failure-taxonomy.

Masked autoencoders (MAE) have recently been introduced to 3D self-supervised pretraining for point clouds due to their great success in NLP and computer vision. Unlike MAEs used in the image domain, where the pretext task is to restore features at the masked pixels, such as colors, the existing 3D MAE works reconstruct the missing geometry only, i.e, the location of the masked points. In contrast to previous studies, we advocate that point location recovery is inessential and restoring intrinsic point features is much superior. To this end, we propose to ignore point position reconstruction and recover high-order features at masked points including surface normals and surface variations, through a novel attention-based decoder which is independent of the encoder design. We validate the effectiveness of our pretext task and decoder design using different encoder structures for 3D training and demonstrate the advantages of our pretrained networks on various point cloud analysis tasks.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to revolutionize diagnosis and segmentation in medical imaging. However, development and clinical implementation face multiple challenges including limited data availability, lack of generalizability, and the necessity to incorporate multi-modal data effectively. A foundation model, which is a large-scale pre-trained AI model, offers a versatile base that can be adapted to a variety of specific tasks and contexts. Here, we present a novel foundation model, VISION-MAE, specifically designed for medical imaging. Specifically, VISION-MAE is trained on a dataset of 2.5 million unlabeled images from various modalities (CT, MR, PET, X-rays, and ultrasound), using self-supervised learning techniques. It is then adapted to classification and segmentation tasks using explicit labels. VISION-MAE has high label efficiency, outperforming several benchmark models in both in-domain and out-of-domain applications, and achieves high performance even with reduced availability of labeled data. This model represents a significant advancement in medical imaging AI, offering a generalizable and robust solution for improving segmentation and classification tasks while reducing the data annotation workload.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Radiation therapy (RT) requires precise dose delivery over multiple fractions, with CT fundamental for treatment planning due to its electron density information. Repeated CT acquisitions impose radiation exposure and logistical burdens, MRI lacks electron density, and cone-beam CT (CBCT) requires correction for dose calculation. Synthetic CT (sCT) generation addresses these by converting MRI or CBCT into CT-equivalent images with accurate Hounsfield Unit (HU) values, enabling MRI-only RT and CBCT-based adaptive workflows. Building on SynthRAD2023, SynthRAD2025 benchmarked sCT methods on 2,362 patients from five European centers across head and neck, thorax, and abdomen. Two tasks: MRI-to-CT (890 cases) and CBCT-to-CT (1,472 cases), evaluated via image similarity (MAE, PSNR, MS-SSIM), segmentation (Dice, HD95), and dosimetric metrics from photon and proton plans. With 803 participants and 12/13 valid submissions, Task 1 top performance reached MAE 64.8pm21.3 HU, PSNR sim30 dB, MS-SSIM sim0.936, Dice 0.79, photon γ_{2%/2mm}>98%, proton γapprox85%. Task 2 improved: MAE 48.3pm13.4 HU, PSNR 32.6 dB, MS-SSIM 0.968, Dice 0.86, photon γ>99%, proton γapprox89%. Strong image--segmentation correlations (ρ=0.78--0.79) but moderate dose correlations confirmed image quality is insufficient as a dosimetric surrogate. Head-and-neck cases were most consistent; thoracic and abdominal cases showed greater variability. Residual errors at tissue interfaces propagate along beam paths, affecting proton dose more than photon. SynthRAD2025 demonstrates that deep learning yields clinically relevant sCTs, especially for CBCT-to-CT, while identifying persistent MRI-to-CT challenges and underscoring dose-based evaluation as essential for clinical validation.

Context: Code reviews are crucial for software quality. Recent AI advances have allowed large language models (LLMs) to review and fix code; now, there are tools that perform these reviews. However, their reliability and accuracy have not yet been systematically evaluated. Objective: This study compares different LLMs' performance in detecting code correctness and suggesting improvements. Method: We tested GPT4o and Gemini 2.0 Flash on 492 AI generated code blocks of varying correctness, along with 164 canonical code blocks from the HumanEval benchmark. To simulate the code review task objectively, we expected LLMs to assess code correctness and improve the code if needed. We ran experiments with different configurations and reported on the results. Results: With problem descriptions, GPT4o and Gemini 2.0 Flash correctly classified code correctness 68.50% and 63.89% of the time, respectively, and corrected the code 67.83% and 54.26% of the time for the 492 code blocks of varying correctness. Without problem descriptions, performance declined. The results for the 164 canonical code blocks differed, suggesting that performance depends on the type of code. Conclusion: LLM code reviews can help suggest improvements and assess correctness, but there is a risk of faulty outputs. We propose a process that involves humans, called the "Human in the loop LLM Code Review" to promote knowledge sharing while mitigating the risk of faulty outputs.

The strong intervening absorption system at redshift 1.15 towards the very bright quasar HE 0515-4414 is the most studied absorber for measuring possible cosmological variations in the fine-structure constant, α. We observed HE 0515-4414 for 16.1,h with the Very Large Telescope and present here the first constraint on relative variations in α with parts-per-million (ppm) precision from the new ESPRESSO spectrograph: Δα/α= 1.3 pm 1.3_{rm stat} pm 0.4_{rm sys},{rm ppm}. The statistical uncertainty (1σ) is similar to the ensemble precision of previous large samples of absorbers, and derives from the high S/N achieved (approx105 per 0.4,km,s^{-1} pixel). ESPRESSO's design, and calibration of our observations with its laser frequency comb, effectively removed wavelength calibration errors from our measurement. The high resolving power of our ESPRESSO spectrum (R=145000) enabled the identification of very narrow components within the absorption profile, allowing a more robust analysis of Δα/α. The evidence for the narrow components is corroborated by their correspondence with previously detected molecular hydrogen and neutral carbon. The main remaining systematic errors arise from ambiguities in the absorption profile modelling, effects from redispersing the individual quasar exposures, and convergence of the parameter estimation algorithm. All analyses of the spectrum, including systematic error estimates, were initially blinded to avoid human biases. We make our reduced ESPRESSO spectrum of HE 0515-4414 publicly available for further analysis. Combining our ESPRESSO result with 28 measurements, from other spectrographs, in which wavelength calibration errors have been mitigated, yields a weighted mean Δα/α= -0.5 pm 0.5_{rm stat} pm 0.4_{rm sys},ppm at redshifts 0.6-2.4.

Large Language Model based multi-agent systems (MAS) excel at collaborative problem solving but remain brittle to cascading errors: a single faulty step can propagate across agents and disrupt the trajectory. In this paper, we present MASC, a metacognitive framework that endows MAS with real-time, unsupervised, step-level error detection and self-correction. MASC rethinks detection as history-conditioned anomaly scoring via two complementary designs: (1) Next-Execution Reconstruction, which predicts the embedding of the next step from the query and interaction history to capture causal consistency, and (2) Prototype-Guided Enhancement, which learns a prototype prior over normal-step embeddings and uses it to stabilize reconstruction and anomaly scoring under sparse context (e.g., early steps). When an anomaly step is flagged, MASC triggers a correction agent to revise the acting agent's output before information flows downstream. On the Who&When benchmark, MASC consistently outperforms all baselines, improving step-level error detection by up to 8.47% AUC-ROC ; When plugged into diverse MAS frameworks, it delivers consistent end-to-end gains across architectures, confirming that our metacognitive monitoring and targeted correction can mitigate error propagation with minimal overhead.

Maybe not. We identify and analyse errors in the popular Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmark. Even though MMLU is widely adopted, our analysis demonstrates numerous ground truth errors that obscure the true capabilities of LLMs. For example, we find that 57% of the analysed questions in the Virology subset contain errors. To address this issue, we introduce a comprehensive framework for identifying dataset errors using a novel error taxonomy. Then, we create MMLU-Redux, which is a subset of 3,000 manually re-annotated questions across 30 MMLU subjects. Using MMLU-Redux, we demonstrate significant discrepancies with the model performance metrics that were originally reported. Our results strongly advocate for revising MMLU's error-ridden questions to enhance its future utility and reliability as a benchmark. Therefore, we open up MMLU-Redux for additional annotation https://huggingface.co/datasets/edinburgh-dawg/mmlu-redux.

We might hope that when faced with unexpected inputs, well-designed software systems would fire off warnings. Machine learning (ML) systems, however, which depend strongly on properties of their inputs (e.g. the i.i.d. assumption), tend to fail silently. This paper explores the problem of building ML systems that fail loudly, investigating methods for detecting dataset shift, identifying exemplars that most typify the shift, and quantifying shift malignancy. We focus on several datasets and various perturbations to both covariates and label distributions with varying magnitudes and fractions of data affected. Interestingly, we show that across the dataset shifts that we explore, a two-sample-testing-based approach, using pre-trained classifiers for dimensionality reduction, performs best. Moreover, we demonstrate that domain-discriminating approaches tend to be helpful for characterizing shifts qualitatively and determining if they are harmful.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

We report that model quantisation restructures domain-level metacognitive efficiency in LLMs rather than degrading it uniformly. Evaluating Llama-3-8B-Instruct on the same 3,000 questions at Q5_K_M and f16 precision, we find that M-ratio profiles across four knowledge domains are uncorrelated between formats (Spearman rho = 0.00). Arts & Literature moves from worst-monitored (M-ratio = 0.606 at Q5_K_M) to best-monitored (1.542 at f16). Geography moves from well-monitored (1.210) to under-monitored (0.798). However, Type-2 AUROC profiles are perfectly stable across formats (rho = 1.00), localising the restructuring to the M-ratio normalisation rather than the underlying discrimination signal. This finding emerged from a pre-registered attempt to improve metacognition through domain-conditional training. We prescribed confidence-amplification SFT for the diagnosed weak domain, with matched-budget agnostic and wrong-prescription controls. All four confirmatory hypotheses were null (10,000 bootstrap resamples, seed = 42). The training successfully reshaped confidence distributions, doubling the NLP gap in Science from 0.076 to 0.152, but did not improve meta-d' because the diagnostic profile did not transfer across formats. Any system relying on domain-level M-ratio profiles has an unexamined dependency on inference format. Systems using AUROC_2 are safer. We release all code, pre-registrations, and trial-level data.

Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have witnessed remarkable growth, showcasing formidable capabilities in handling intricate multimodal tasks with exceptional performance. Recent research has underscored the inclination of large language models to passively accept defective inputs, often resulting in futile reasoning on invalid prompts. However, the same critical question of whether LMMs can actively detect and scrutinize erroneous inputs still remains unexplored. To address this gap, we introduce the Input Scrutiny Ability Evaluation Framework (ISEval), which encompasses seven categories of flawed premises and three evaluation metrics. Our extensive evaluation of ten advanced LMMs has identified key findings. Most models struggle to actively detect flawed textual premises without guidance, which reflects a strong reliance on explicit prompts for premise error identification. Error type affects performance: models excel at identifying logical fallacies but struggle with surface-level linguistic errors and certain conditional flaws. Modality trust varies-Gemini 2.5 pro and Claude Sonnet 4 balance visual and textual info, while aya-vision-8b over-rely on text in conflicts. These insights underscore the urgent need to enhance LMMs' proactive verification of input validity and shed novel insights into mitigating the problem. The code is available at https://github.com/MLGroupJLU/LMM_ISEval.

The dominant industry response to AI-generated code quality problems is to deploy AI reviewers. This paper argues that this response is structurally circular when executable specifications are absent: without an external reference, both the generating agent and the reviewing agent reason from the same artefact, share the same training distribution, and exhibit correlated failures. The review checks code against itself, not against intent. Three hypotheses are developed. First, that correlated errors in homogeneous LLM pipelines echo rather than cancel, a claim supported by convergent empirical evidence from multiple 2025-2026 studies and by three small contrived experiments reported here. The first two experiments are same-family (Claude reviewing Claude-generated code); the third extends to a cross-family panel of four models from three families. All use a planted bug corpus rather than a natural defect sample; they are directional evidence, not a controlled demonstration. Second, that executable specifications perform a domain transition in the Cynefin sense, converting enabling constraints into governing constraints and moving the problem from the complex domain to the complicated domain, a transition that AI makes economically viable at scale. Third, that the defect classes lying outside the reach of executable specifications form a well-defined residual, which is the legitimate and bounded target for AI review. The combined argument implies an architecture: specifications first, deterministic verification pipeline second, AI review only for the structural and architectural residual. This is not a claim that AI review is valueless. It is a claim about what it is actually for, and about what happens when it is deployed without the foundation that makes it non-circular.

We present an experimental analysis on the use of a camera-based approach for high-altitude navigation by associating mapped landmarks from a satellite image database to camera images, and by leveraging inertial sensors between camera frames. We evaluate performance of both a sideways-tilted and downward-facing camera on data collected from a World View Enterprises high-altitude balloon with data beginning at an altitude of 33 km and descending to near ground level (4.5 km) with 1.5 hours of flight time. We demonstrate less than 290 meters of average position error over a trajectory of more than 150 kilometers. In addition to showing performance across a range of altitudes, we also demonstrate the robustness of the Terrain Relative Navigation (TRN) method to rapid rotations of the balloon, in some cases exceeding 20 degrees per second, and to camera obstructions caused by both cloud coverage and cords swaying underneath the balloon. Additionally, we evaluate performance on data collected by two cameras inside the capsule of Blue Origin's New Shepard rocket on payload flight NS-23, traveling at speeds up to 880 km/hr, and demonstrate less than 55 meters of average position error.

Ambient AI scribes draft clinical notes under the reassurance that a clinician signs every note. We audited three commercial AI scribes on the same 142 consultations: 565 notes from recorded UK primary-care and US ambulatory encounters plus authored scenarios. Twelve discovery passes proposed 13,678 candidate errors; the 5,898 clearing an importance filter went to an adversarial panel of two models from different families, each told to refute what it could, and 618 survived. One note in three (31.3% [27.0, 35.6]) carries a verified failure, concentrated in allergy and medication information, invented patient identity, and history written up as examination on telephone consultations that can contain none. No product was given a patient record; setting aside the two classes a record would have prefilled, invented identity and dates, the rate is 24.8% [20.8, 29.0]. One failure mode did not fit our scheme, drawn from published scribe-error taxonomies: a treatment the clinician retracts, recorded as delivered care. Two clinicians adjudicated blind, disjoint samples: a physician author upheld 20 of 21 findings (95.2% [77.3, 99.2]) and an independent clinician, not an author, 12 of 12 ([75.8, 100]); both judged every sampled refusal genuine. A failure rate depends on the instrument as much as the scribes. With model, evidence and settings fixed, the review instruction alone moves the share of candidates verified from 9.3% to 79.0%, and the reviewing family moves it too: alone at that instruction the gentler flags 54.8% of notes against 27.8%. Between 28% and 97% of sampled notes carry a failure depending on the standard. Published audits disagree among themselves by a margin instrument differences alone can produce: omission is 54-86% of their errors against our 23.1%. We release all 618 findings with transcript-side evidence, every prompt and model version, and the re-runnable pipeline.

High-quality Machine Translation (MT) evaluation relies heavily on human judgments. Comprehensive error classification methods, such as Multidimensional Quality Metrics (MQM), are expensive as they are time-consuming and can only be done by experts, whose availability may be limited especially for low-resource languages. On the other hand, just assigning overall scores, like Direct Assessment (DA), is simpler and faster and can be done by translators of any level, but is less reliable. In this paper, we introduce Error Span Annotation (ESA), a human evaluation protocol which combines the continuous rating of DA with the high-level error severity span marking of MQM. We validate ESA by comparing it to MQM and DA for 12 MT systems and one human reference translation (English to German) from WMT23. The results show that ESA offers faster and cheaper annotations than MQM at the same quality level, without the requirement of expensive MQM experts.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

Large, pretrained models are commonly finetuned with imagery that is heavily augmented to mimic different conditions and scales, with the resulting models used for various tasks with imagery from a range of spatial scales. Such models overlook scale-specific information in the data for scale-dependent domains, such as remote sensing. In this paper, we present Scale-MAE, a pretraining method that explicitly learns relationships between data at different, known scales throughout the pretraining process. Scale-MAE pretrains a network by masking an input image at a known input scale, where the area of the Earth covered by the image determines the scale of the ViT positional encoding, not the image resolution. Scale-MAE encodes the masked image with a standard ViT backbone, and then decodes the masked image through a bandpass filter to reconstruct low/high frequency images at lower/higher scales. We find that tasking the network with reconstructing both low/high frequency images leads to robust multiscale representations for remote sensing imagery. Scale-MAE achieves an average of a 2.4 - 5.6% non-parametric kNN classification improvement across eight remote sensing datasets compared to current state-of-the-art and obtains a 0.9 mIoU to 1.7 mIoU improvement on the SpaceNet building segmentation transfer task for a range of evaluation scales.

Critique, as a natural language description for assessing the quality of model-generated content, has been proven to play an essential role in the training, evaluation, and refinement of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, there is a lack of principled understanding in evaluating the quality of the critique itself. In this paper, we pioneer the critique of critique, termed MetaCritique, which is a framework to evaluate the critique from two aspects, i.e., factuality as precision score and comprehensiveness as recall score. We calculate the harmonic mean of precision and recall as the overall rating called F1 score. To obtain a reliable evaluation outcome, we propose Atomic Information Units (AIUs), which describe the critique in a more fine-grained manner. MetaCritique takes each AIU into account and aggregates each AIU's judgment for the overall score. Moreover, given the evaluation process involves intricate reasoning, our MetaCritique provides a natural language rationale to support each judgment. We construct a meta-evaluation dataset containing 300 critiques (2653 AIUs) across four tasks (question answering, reasoning, entailment, and summarization), and we conduct a comparative study to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness. Experiments also show superior critique judged by MetaCritique leads to better refinement, indicating generative artificial intelligence indeed has the potential to be significantly advanced with our MetaCritique. We will release relevant code and meta-evaluation datasets at https://github.com/GAIR-NLP/MetaCritique.

We introduce the AIM 2024 UHD-IQA Challenge, a competition to advance the No-Reference Image Quality Assessment (NR-IQA) task for modern, high-resolution photos. The challenge is based on the recently released UHD-IQA Benchmark Database, which comprises 6,073 UHD-1 (4K) images annotated with perceptual quality ratings from expert raters. Unlike previous NR-IQA datasets, UHD-IQA focuses on highly aesthetic photos of superior technical quality, reflecting the ever-increasing standards of digital photography. This challenge aims to develop efficient and effective NR-IQA models. Participants are tasked with creating novel architectures and training strategies to achieve high predictive performance on UHD-1 images within a computational budget of 50G MACs. This enables model deployment on edge devices and scalable processing of extensive image collections. Winners are determined based on a combination of performance metrics, including correlation measures (SRCC, PLCC, KRCC), absolute error metrics (MAE, RMSE), and computational efficiency (G MACs). To excel in this challenge, participants leverage techniques like knowledge distillation, low-precision inference, and multi-scale training. By pushing the boundaries of NR-IQA for high-resolution photos, the UHD-IQA Challenge aims to stimulate the development of practical models that can keep pace with the rapidly evolving landscape of digital photography. The innovative solutions emerging from this competition will have implications for various applications, from photo curation and enhancement to image compression.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are being increasingly used in software engineering tasks, with an increased focus on bug report resolution over the past year. However, most proposed systems fail to properly handle uncertain or incorrect inputs and outputs. Existing LLM-based tools and coding agents respond to every issue and generate a patch for every case, even when the input is vague or their own output is incorrect. There are no mechanisms in place to abstain when confidence is low. This leads to unreliable behaviour, such as hallucinated code changes or responses based on vague issue reports. We introduce BouncerBench, a benchmark that evaluates whether LLM-based software agents can refuse to act when inputs are ill-defined or refuse to respond when their own outputs are likely to be incorrect. Unlike prior benchmarks that implicitly incentivize models to generate responses even when uncertain, BouncerBench aims to improve precision by targeting two overlooked failure points: (1) vague or underspecified issue descriptions in tickets and (2) logically or functionally incorrect code patches created by the system. It measures whether proposed systems can distinguish actionable issues from vague tickets and valid patches from untrustworthy ones. We also implement a basic input and output bouncer, evaluating how well current LLMs can abstain when needed. Our results show that most models fail to abstain from underspecified inputs or incorrect outputs. Hence, we conclude that there is significant room for improvement before LLMs can be trusted to make correct decisions and recommendations in real-world software engineering workflows. BouncerBench provides a first step toward evaluating and building more cautious, trustworthy code agents. The replication package, dataset, and leaderboard can be found at bouncerbench.com

We present an initial analysis of the properties of the all-sky image obtained by the Far-Infrared Surveyor (FIS) onboard the AKARI satellite, at 65~μm (N60), 90~μm (WIDE-S), 140~μm (WIDE-L),and 160~μm (N160). Absolute flux calibration was determined by comparing the data with the COBE/DIRBE data sets, and the intensity range was as wide as from a few MJy~sr^{-1} to >1~GJy~sr^{-1}. The uncertainties are considered to be the standard deviations with respect to the DIRBE data, and they are less than 10\% for intensities above 10, 3, 25, and 26~MJy~sr^{-1} at the N60, WIDE-S, WIDE-L, and N160 bands, respectively. The characteristics of point sources in the image were also determined by stacking maps centred on photometric standard stars. The full width at half maxima of the point spread functions (PSFs) were 63", 78", and 88" at the N60, WIDE-S, and WIDE-L bands, respectively. The PSF at the N160 band was not obtained due to the sensitivity, but it is thought to be the same as that of the WIDE-L one.

Recent machine translation (MT) metrics calibrate their effectiveness by correlating with human judgement but without any insights about their behaviour across different error types. Challenge sets are used to probe specific dimensions of metric behaviour but there are very few such datasets and they either focus on a limited number of phenomena or a limited number of language pairs. We introduce ACES, a contrastive challenge set spanning 146 language pairs, aimed at discovering whether metrics can identify 68 translation accuracy errors. These phenomena range from simple alterations at the word/character level to more complex errors based on discourse and real-world knowledge. We conduct a large-scale study by benchmarking ACES on 50 metrics submitted to the WMT 2022 and 2023 metrics shared tasks. We benchmark metric performance, assess their incremental performance over successive campaigns, and measure their sensitivity to a range of linguistic phenomena. We also investigate claims that Large Language Models (LLMs) are effective as MT evaluators by evaluating on ACES. Our results demonstrate that different metric families struggle with different phenomena and that LLM-based methods fail to demonstrate reliable performance. Our analyses indicate that most metrics ignore the source sentence, tend to prefer surface-level overlap and end up incorporating properties of base models which are not always beneficial. We expand ACES to include error span annotations, denoted as SPAN-ACES and we use this dataset to evaluate span-based error metrics showing these metrics also need considerable improvement. Finally, we provide a set of recommendations for building better MT metrics, including focusing on error labels instead of scores, ensembling, designing strategies to explicitly focus on the source sentence, focusing on semantic content and choosing the right base model for representations.

A large share of day-to-day work in professional domains happens inside PDF files: benefits packets, leases, datasheets, clinical guidelines, construction plans. Benchmarks for document AI have generally measured the required capabilities in isolation: OCR, layout analysis, chart reasoning, table QA, document VQA. A high score on any one of them does not necessarily reveal whether a model can answer a realistic question that someone in the field would actually ask about a specific PDF. GDP_pdf is a benchmark built to measure this directly. It consists of question-document pairs authored by working professionals in ten fields, and a candidate question was kept only when at least two frontier multimodal models failed it in a way that mattered: a wrong answer, missed decisive evidence, or a fabricated claim, rather than a superficial difference such as style. Each item comes with a rubric of atomic criteria, so we can report a graded rubric score as well as a strict task-level pass rate, and each item is tagged against a taxonomy of eleven capabilities in three tiers, spanning text extraction and grounding, table and chart comprehension, cross-referencing, spatial reasoning, and abstention on unsupported queries. We report results for seventeen frontier models on the 100-item benchmark: the best model passes only 30.7% of the items and the worst passes 2%. Most errors trace back to a small set of recurring loss patterns: misaligned tables, misread charts, skipped footnotes and exclusions, miscounted floor-plan symbols, scan noise, and amendments that supersede earlier text.

A content-moderation system can score well on every standard accuracy metric and still cause real harm, if its mistakes fall on the few users who connect otherwise separate communities. We show this in an agent-based model where N=240 learning agents on a community-structured network each post harmless, productive, or dangerous content, and a regulator removes or penalizes whatever a noisy classifier flags. Overall usefulness barely moves as the noise changes (one-way ANOVA, p=0.96): by aggregate measures, nothing looks wrong. The damage instead concentrates on these bridge users, whose useful posts are wrongly suppressed and whose dangerous posts are wrongly spared. A governance loss (L_gov) that prices these two mistakes separately from the cost of enforcement more than doubles under false-positive-heavy noise. Aggregate accuracy hides who is harmed, and the cheap quantity to audit is how many connections a user has (degree), a near-perfect proxy for the betweenness that defines a bridge (r=0.96).

Ambient AI scribes draft clinical notes, and published audits find their dominant error is omission: information the encounter established that the note fails to record. The standard check is an LLM judge: a second model reads the note against the transcript and flags problems. We ask whether judges detect omissions. Public corpora cannot supply the answer key: their clinician reference notes and transcripts are materially discrepant. Our benchmark has 500 single-error note pairs from audited fact sheets, 298 with a named fact certainly absent and 202 added-or-altered controls. Across eight judge designs, paired discrimination (the flawed note below its clean twin, 0.5 a coin flip) reads 0.79-0.94 on added or altered content and 0.50-0.63 on omissions. On single notes, no design flags omissions reliably more often than perfect notes. Wording changes, voting and GEPA prompt optimisation move the operating point without creating usable detection. Restructuring the task recovers it: list the facts the transcript establishes, then check the note for each. Two methods reach it independently and trade off: a per-fact pipeline, and a GEPA-evolved prompt doing the same in one call. The pipeline's flags name the missing fact and its severity at 2.7% false alarms. The single call detects more (36.9% against 24.6%, p=0.002) at 6.2% false alarms and a tenth of the cost per note. A physician author validated 70 items and, where the two routes disagree, sided with the pipeline on 10 of 10 (p=0.002). A second clinician, not an author, graded the severity rubric blind and agrees to within a grade. On real vendor notes from a companion census no benchmark threshold transfers, but the re-calibrated single call detects more than the best of the eight at half its false-alarm rate. Omissions whose fact is restated elsewhere defeat both routes. We release the benchmark, prompts and judgements.

Clinical LLMs are often scaled by increasing model size, context length, retrieval complexity, or inference-time compute, with the implicit expectation that higher accuracy implies safer behavior. This assumption is incomplete in medicine, where a few confident, high-risk, or evidence-contradicting errors can matter more than average benchmark performance. We introduce SaFE-Scale, a framework for measuring how clinical LLM safety changes across model scale, evidence quality, retrieval strategy, context exposure, and inference-time compute. To instantiate this framework, we introduce RadSaFE-200, a Radiology Safety-Focused Evaluation benchmark of 200 multiple-choice questions with clinician-defined clean evidence, conflict evidence, and option-level labels for high-risk error, unsafe answer, and evidence contradiction. We evaluated 34 locally deployed LLMs across six deployment conditions: closed-book prompting (zero-shot), clean evidence, conflict evidence, standard RAG, agentic RAG, and max-context prompting. Clean evidence produced the strongest improvement, increasing mean accuracy from 73.5% to 94.1%, while reducing high-risk error from 12.0% to 2.6%, contradiction from 12.7% to 2.3%, and dangerous overconfidence from 8.0% to 1.6%. Standard RAG and agentic RAG did not reproduce this safety profile: agentic RAG improved accuracy over standard RAG and reduced contradiction, but high-risk error and dangerous overconfidence remained elevated. Max-context prompting increased latency without closing the safety gap, and additional inference-time compute produced only limited gains. Worst-case analysis showed that clinically consequential errors concentrated in a small subset of questions. Clinical LLM safety is therefore not a passive consequence of scaling, but a deployment property shaped by evidence quality, retrieval design, context construction, and collective failure behavior.

We propose Zero-Error Horizon (ZEH) for trustworthy LLMs, which represents the maximum range that a model can solve without any errors. While ZEH itself is simple, we demonstrate that evaluating the ZEH of state-of-the-art LLMs yields abundant insights. For example, by evaluating the ZEH of GPT-5.2, we found that GPT-5.2 cannot even compute the parity of a short string like 11000, and GPT-5.2 cannot determine whether the parentheses in ((((()))))) are balanced. This is surprising given the excellent capabilities of GPT-5.2. The fact that LLMs make mistakes on such simple problems serves as an important lesson when applying LLMs to safety-critical domains. By applying ZEH to Qwen2.5 and conducting detailed analysis, we found that while ZEH correlates with accuracy, the detailed behaviors differ, and ZEH provides clues about the emergence of algorithmic capabilities. Finally, while computing ZEH incurs significant computational cost, we discuss how to mitigate this cost by achieving up to one order of magnitude speedup using tree structures and online softmax.

Vision-specific concepts such as "region" have played a key role in extending general machine learning frameworks to tasks like object detection. Given the success of region-based detectors for supervised learning and the progress of intra-image methods for contrastive learning, we explore the use of regions for reconstructive pre-training. Starting from Masked Autoencoding (MAE) both as a baseline and an inspiration, we propose a parallel pre-text task tailored to address the one-to-many mapping between images and regions. Since such regions can be generated in an unsupervised way, our approach (R-MAE) inherits the wide applicability from MAE, while being more "region-aware". We conduct thorough analyses during the development of R-MAE, and converge on a variant that is both effective and efficient (1.3% overhead over MAE). Moreover, it shows consistent quantitative improvements when generalized to various pre-training data and downstream detection and segmentation benchmarks. Finally, we provide extensive qualitative visualizations to enhance the understanding of R-MAE's behaviour and potential. Code will be made available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/r-mae.

An agent that inherits six one-line memories may pull at most one archived source record before acting; a directive written into the store can steer that choice: a pointer to the record, a criterion that identifies it, or both. Across twelve registered studies on one instrument lineage (14,760 attempts) we measured where the request goes under each form. On six direct-provider models a length-matched criterion exceeded a bare id by +35.0 points [+31.2, +38.8] (Study D); the contrast failed its registered superiority rule on a nine-model OpenRouter-served panel (Study E). Appending the id cancelled the criterion on three Claude models (Opus 5: 40/40 to 0/40; Study F-x); six byte-matched edits gave each exact string its own effect (Study G), and a re-run at eighty runs per cell left fifteen of thirty replication contrasts within the margin, fifteen unresolved and none beyond (Study G'). A ratification line (+96.0 points on Opus 5) and a budget of two credits restored the target on all three (Study J); across five criterion strings the suffix's cancellation held for four of the five wordings on Opus 5 and all five wordings on Fable 5.1 (Study H2); in a second store every model followed the criterion (Study H1). Continued into a decision, the criterion moved the choice toward the current record (+100.0 points, Opus 5) and away from it on Fable 5.1 (Study I). A one-character plan pointer's effect (+78.0 points; Study B, after a correction of its first repository report) returned the same verdict under a prospectively registered re-run (+81.7 points; Study B'). All results are descriptive effects of exact edits on fixed panels with registered intervals and no mechanism claim.

As Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) become increasingly autonomous and complex, understanding their error modes is critical for ensuring their reliability and safety. However, research in this area has been severely hampered by the lack of large-scale, diverse datasets with precise, ground-truth error labels. To address this bottleneck, we introduce AEGIS, a novel framework for Automated Error Generation and Identification for Multi-Agent Systems. By systematically injecting controllable and traceable errors into initially successful trajectories, we create a rich dataset of realistic failures. This is achieved using a context-aware, LLM-based adaptive manipulator that performs sophisticated attacks like prompt injection and response corruption to induce specific, predefined error modes. We demonstrate the value of our dataset by exploring three distinct learning paradigms for the error identification task: Supervised Fine-Tuning, Reinforcement Learning, and Contrastive Learning. Our comprehensive experiments show that models trained on AEGIS data achieve substantial improvements across all three learning paradigms. Notably, several of our fine-tuned models demonstrate performance competitive with or superior to proprietary systems an order of magnitude larger, validating our automated data generation framework as a crucial resource for developing more robust and interpretable multi-agent systems. Our project website is available at https://kfq20.github.io/AEGIS-Website.

Banking assistants must use account-specific information to answer requests and, in many cases, take actions through tools. Evaluating only the final response misses important errors. An assistant may ask for information it already has, rely on stale context, select the wrong account, or write an invalid value after stating the correct one. We introduce IndicBankBench, a 799-case benchmark for Indian retail banking spanning five operational domains, a capability/refusal domain, and twenty primary axes. Cases are evaluated at four stages: safety, action and tool use, response adequacy, and advisory quality. Tool use and most safety checks are deterministic. A narrow resolver handles only ambiguous confirmation-before-write cases, while a separate LLM judge evaluates semantic response adequacy. We run every case three times and report strict pass^3, which requires success on all trials. Across the eleven evaluated models, strict reliability ranges from 43.7% to 58.2%, whereas at-least-once success ranges from 60% to 74%. This gap shows that at-least-once success can overstate dependable banking behavior. The case-level diagnostics also distinguish systems that ask unnecessary questions from those that act but fail to reconcile customer context or fully resolve the request. We release the cases, mock environment, and evaluation harness.

Multi-model LLM systems such as routing, voting, cascades, fusion, and mixture-of-agents are used to beat single-model accuracy. We show that their gain is capped by a quantity the field rarely reports. For any policy whose output is one member model answer, accuracy cannot exceed one minus beta, where beta is the rate at which every model is wrong on the same query. In contrast, the usual diagnostic, average pairwise error correlation rho, cannot identify beta: error laws with identical marginals and pairwise correlations can have different all-wrong rates. A Clopper-Pearson bound on beta gives a finite-sample certificate on the largest gain any router, vote, or cascade could deliver before training a router. Across 67 models from 21 providers, a tetrachoric-calibrated single-factor model still underprices the all-wrong tail: on open-ended mathematics, observed beta is 0.052 versus 0.023 under the full 67-model Gaussian copula, about 2.5 times underpricing, with 90 percent CI 1.7 to 3.4 and k equals 17. The effect recurs on execution-graded code, where beta is 0.079. Re-asking the same GPQA-Diamond questions in free-response rather than multiple-choice form reopens the tail, with beta 0.127 and a five-judge panel with kappa 0.73 to 0.92, locating co-failure in answer format rather than subject. At matched quality, low-rho heterogeneous ensembles beat high-rho Self-MoA, but on checkable tasks in our pool, combining models rarely beats the single best model without a strong query-level routing signal. Gains come from models failing on different questions, not from adding more models.

As AI becomes more capable, we entrust it with more general and consequential tasks. The risks from failure grow more severe with increasing task scope. It is therefore important to understand how extremely capable AI models will fail: Will they fail by systematically pursuing goals we do not intend? Or will they fail by being a hot mess, and taking nonsensical actions that do not further any goal? We operationalize this question using a bias-variance decomposition of the errors made by AI models: An AI's incoherence on a task is measured over test-time randomness as the fraction of its error that stems from variance rather than bias in task outcome. Across all tasks and frontier models we measure, the longer models spend reasoning and taking actions, the more incoherent their failures become. Incoherence changes with model scale in a way that is experiment dependent. However, in several settings, larger, more capable models are more incoherent than smaller models. Consequently, scale alone seems unlikely to eliminate incoherence. Instead, as more capable AIs pursue harder tasks, requiring more sequential action and thought, our results predict failures to be accompanied by more incoherent behavior. This suggests a future where AIs sometimes cause industrial accidents (due to unpredictable misbehavior), but are less likely to exhibit consistent pursuit of a misaligned goal. This increases the relative importance of alignment research targeting reward hacking or goal misspecification.

Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors accumulate over long autoregressive rollouts, systematic biases grow with lead time, and several years of data must be held out for independent verification, even though machine-learning models otherwise benefit from longer training records. To address these challenges, we adapt ECMWF's AIFS-CRPS medium-range model. AIFS-SUBS adopts a 24h autoregressive time step to reduce error accumulation, adds stratospheric levels and top-of-atmosphere thermal radiation as predictors, and reserves 2007--2011 as an independent verification window. We evaluate two config-durations: AIFS-SUBS, fine-tuned on operational analyses, and AIFS-SUBS-ERA5, trained on ERA5 alone. Across weeks 2--6, AIFS-SUBS matches the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) in probabilistic skill while reducing systematic biases. For the convective (OLR) component of the Madden--Julian Oscillation (MJO), AIFS-SUBS extends skilful forecasts (correlation > 0.5) by eight days relative to the IFS, while matching or exceeding the IFS for the full multivariate RMM index. AIFS-SUBS also reproduces the observed MJO modulation of tropical cyclone activity comparably. Stratospheric skill is particularly strong with AIFS-SUBS reproducing sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) frequency and surface impact. In the AI Weather Quest, AIFS-SUBS-ERA5 attains a variable-averaged ranked probability skill score slightly ahead of the IFS at weeks 3 and 4. At inference, AIFS-SUBS uses about 200 times less energy than the IFS, opening the door to much larger real-time ensembles. AIFS-SUBS is ECMWF's first machine-learning model targeted at sub-seasonal time-scales.

As LLMs generate increasingly long outputs, effective uncertainty estimation must identify errors at fine-grained levels rather than discard entire responses. While such methods exist, evaluating uncertainty at any resolution (token to an entire generation) is challenging and highly sensitive to label imperfections, making zero-noise benchmarks essential; yet, long-form generation benchmarks tend to rely on fallible labels rather than deterministic ground truth. We introduce Single-answer Atomic Long-form Target (SALT), a benchmark of six procedurally generated tasks with single deterministic long textual ground truths, enabling unit-level evaluation of correctness, calibration, and ranking without external judges. Equipped with SALT, our analysis of 50+ LLMs reveals key insights: We identify which confidence functions dominate each uncertainty aspect and show that confidence ranking largely breaks at atomic resolution, even when clearer separability emerges at coarser line-level units. SALT further enables controlled atom-level interventions throughout generation, revealing two separable drivers of future errors: propagation from corrupted prefixes, dominated by global context correctness, and bounded degradation from increasing answer-context length. Finally, we demonstrate that reasoning, via Chain-of-Thought prompting or internalized through training, introduces a trade-off, improving accuracy while degrading confidence ranking. These findings directly impact risk-critical applications requiring reliable error identification and mitigation.

Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality. We give a measurement-driven account of when it is a good proxy and when it is not, and why. Modeling plan selection as an argmin over a piecewise-linear cost landscape, we find that plan regret (the cost of the chosen plan relative to the optimal, under true cardinalities) is governed by plan-cost geometry in a regime-dependent way. (i) For small errors, a true-point condition number kappa predicts regret and out-predicts q-error; its predictive power decays to zero as error grows, as a local linearization must. (ii) For large errors -- where deployed learned estimators operate -- an estimator-independent average-case sub-optimality measure ACS-infinity predicts which queries are regret-prone (Spearman rho ~ 0.54 on STATS-CEB), while q-error is nearly uninformative at the query level (rho ~ 0.05). (iii) The worst case is Haritsa's maximum sub-optimality (MSO). The three are one cost-ratio spectrum under three weightings. We prove a limit law ACS-infinity = sum_k r_k pi_k with cardinality-independent combinatorial weights, and validate every claim on STATS-CEB and JOB-light with four released estimators under pre-registered decision rules, and confirm on real PostgreSQL runtime that ACS-infinity predicts regret where q-error does not. The contribution is conceptual and empirical -- an average-case companion to worst-case robust query optimization, and a characterization of when an accuracy metric tracks plan quality -- rather than a new estimator. Code and the full pre-registration are public.

Mean Field Variational Inference (MFVI) is widely understood to underestimate posterior variance. By analysing conjugate Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR), we show that this characterization is incomplete: while MFVI underestimates the variance in parameter space, it can overestimate the predictive variance compared to the exact posterior. We show that if the MFVI posterior underestimates predictive variances in some directions, it necessarily overestimates them in others. Crucially, this overestimation occurs in directions where the training data concentrates. This leads to the surprising result that, for a test point drawn from the training distribution, MFVI's expected predictive variance exceeds that of the exact posterior. We demonstrate a pathological case of this effect, where the MFVI posterior fails to reduce predictive variance compared to the prior on in distribution data. We connect these results to the Cold Posterior Effect, arguing that varying the temperature can correct this overestimation, yielding predictions closer to those of the exact posterior. We validate our theory on synthetic and real-world regression tasks.

When an AI agent calls an API and hits a validation error, it needs more than what went wrong -- it needs what to do next. A self-reflective API returns, on validation failure, a machine-readable recovery\_feedback.suggestions[] payload sufficient for the agent to repair the request and retry without external reasoning. On a leak-audited pilot (N{=}30 per cell, 3 LLMs, 10 adversarial tasks), structured suggestions lift task-completion rate by +36.7--40.0pp over plain-English diagnoses on Anthropic models (Fisher's exact p le 0.0022), at 1.8--2.2times better per-success token efficiency. The lift is not significant on gpt-4o-mini (p{=}0.435); a second-domain replication on a billing API confirms the pattern. The comparison only holds after auditing two undocumented classes of answer leakage in LLM benchmarks. We shipaudit\_prompt\_leakage.py as reusable CI infrastructure. Code and data: https://github.com/arquicanedo/self-reflective-apis.