Daily Papers

The high computational costs of large language models (LLMs) have led to a flurry of research on LLM compression, via methods such as quantization, sparsification, or structured pruning. A new frontier in this area is given by dynamic, non-uniform compression methods, which adjust the compression levels (e.g., sparsity) per-block or even per-layer in order to minimize accuracy loss, while guaranteeing a global compression threshold. Yet, current methods rely on heuristics for identifying the "importance" of a given layer towards the loss, based on assumptions such as error monotonicity, i.e. that the end-to-end model compression error is proportional to the sum of layer-wise errors. In this paper, we revisit this area, and propose a new and general approach for dynamic compression that is provably optimal in a given input range. We begin from the motivating observation that, in general, error monotonicity does not hold for LLMs: compressed models with lower sum of per-layer errors can perform worse than models with higher error sums. To address this, we propose a new general evolutionary framework for dynamic LLM compression called EvoPress, which has provable convergence, and low sample and evaluation complexity. We show that these theoretical guarantees lead to highly competitive practical performance for dynamic compression of Llama, Mistral and Phi models. Via EvoPress, we set new state-of-the-art results across all compression approaches: structural pruning (block/layer dropping), unstructured sparsity, as well as quantization with dynamic bitwidths. Our code is available at https://github.com/IST-DASLab/EvoPress.

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

In this paper, we study the problem of establishing the accountability and fairness of transparent machine learning models through monotonicity. Although there have been numerous studies on individual monotonicity, pairwise monotonicity is often overlooked in the existing literature. This paper studies transparent neural networks in the presence of three types of monotonicity: individual monotonicity, weak pairwise monotonicity, and strong pairwise monotonicity. As a means of achieving monotonicity while maintaining transparency, we propose the monotonic groves of neural additive models. As a result of empirical examples, we demonstrate that monotonicity is often violated in practice and that monotonic groves of neural additive models are transparent, accountable, and fair.

Wider adoption of neural networks in many critical domains such as finance and healthcare is being hindered by the need to explain their predictions and to impose additional constraints on them. Monotonicity constraint is one of the most requested properties in real-world scenarios and is the focus of this paper. One of the oldest ways to construct a monotonic fully connected neural network is to constrain signs on its weights. Unfortunately, this construction does not work with popular non-saturated activation functions as it can only approximate convex functions. We show this shortcoming can be fixed by constructing two additional activation functions from a typical unsaturated monotonic activation function and employing each of them on the part of neurons. Our experiments show this approach of building monotonic neural networks has better accuracy when compared to other state-of-the-art methods, while being the simplest one in the sense of having the least number of parameters, and not requiring any modifications to the learning procedure or post-learning steps. Finally, we prove it can approximate any continuous monotone function on a compact subset of R^n.

End-to-end models reach state-of-the-art performance for speech recognition, but global soft attention is not monotonic, which might lead to convergence problems, to instability, to bad generalisation, cannot be used for online streaming, and is also inefficient in calculation. Monotonicity can potentially fix all of this. There are several ad-hoc solutions or heuristics to introduce monotonicity, but a principled introduction is rarely found in literature so far. In this paper, we present a mathematically clean solution to introduce monotonicity, by introducing a new latent variable which represents the audio position or segment boundaries. We compare several monotonic latent models to our global soft attention baseline such as a hard attention model, a local windowed soft attention model, and a segmental soft attention model. We can show that our monotonic models perform as good as the global soft attention model. We perform our experiments on Switchboard 300h. We carefully outline the details of our training and release our code and configs.

Question answering (QA) is a critical task for speech-based retrieval from knowledge sources, by sifting only the answers without requiring to read supporting documents. Specifically, open-domain QA aims to answer user questions on unrestricted knowledge sources. Ideally, adding a source should not decrease the accuracy, but we find this property (denoted as "monotonicity") does not hold for current state-of-the-art methods. We identify the cause, and based on that we propose Judge-Specialist framework. Our framework consists of (1) specialist retrievers/readers to cover individual sources, and (2) judge, a dedicated language model to select the final answer. Our experiments show that our framework not only ensures monotonicity, but also outperforms state-of-the-art multi-source QA methods on Natural Questions. Additionally, we show that our models robustly preserve the monotonicity against noise from speech recognition. We publicly release our code and setting.

Algorithms for min-max optimization and variational inequalities are often studied under monotonicity assumptions. Motivated by non-monotone machine learning applications, we follow the line of works [Diakonikolas et al., 2021, Lee and Kim, 2021, Pethick et al., 2022, B\"ohm, 2022] aiming at going beyond monotonicity by considering the weaker negative comonotonicity assumption. In particular, we provide tight complexity analyses for the Proximal Point, Extragradient, and Optimistic Gradient methods in this setup, closing some questions on their working guarantees beyond monotonicity.

We consider the problem of ranking n experts based on their performances on d tasks. We make a monotonicity assumption stating that for each pair of experts, one outperforms the other on all tasks. We consider the sequential setting where in each round, the learner has access to noisy evaluations of actively chosen pair of expert-task, given the information available up to the actual round. Given a confidence parameter delta in (0, 1), we provide strategies allowing to recover the correct ranking of experts and develop a bound on the total number of queries made by our algorithm that hold with probability at least 1 -- delta. We show that our strategy is adaptive to the complexity of the problem (our bounds are instance dependent), and develop matching lower bounds up to a poly-logarithmic factor. Finally, we adapt our strategy to the relaxed problem of best expert identification and provide numerical simulation consistent with our theoretical results.

We expect the generalization error to improve with more samples from a similar task, and to deteriorate with more samples from an out-of-distribution (OOD) task. In this work, we show a counter-intuitive phenomenon: the generalization error of a task can be a non-monotonic function of the number of OOD samples. As the number of OOD samples increases, the generalization error on the target task improves before deteriorating beyond a threshold. In other words, there is value in training on small amounts of OOD data. We use Fisher's Linear Discriminant on synthetic datasets and deep networks on computer vision benchmarks such as MNIST, CIFAR-10, CINIC-10, PACS and DomainNet to demonstrate and analyze this phenomenon. In the idealistic setting where we know which samples are OOD, we show that these non-monotonic trends can be exploited using an appropriately weighted objective of the target and OOD empirical risk. While its practical utility is limited, this does suggest that if we can detect OOD samples, then there may be ways to benefit from them. When we do not know which samples are OOD, we show how a number of go-to strategies such as data-augmentation, hyper-parameter optimization, and pre-training are not enough to ensure that the target generalization error does not deteriorate with the number of OOD samples in the dataset.

We discuss the numerical solution of initial value problems for varepsilon^2,varphi''+a(x),varphi=0 in the highly oscillatory regime, i.e., with a(x)>0 and 0<varepsilonll 1. We analyze and implement an approximate solution based on the well-known WKB-ansatz. The resulting approximation error is of magnitude O(varepsilon^{N}) where N refers to the truncation order of the underlying asymptotic series. When the optimal truncation order N_{opt} is chosen, the error behaves like O(varepsilon^{-2}exp(-cvarepsilon^{-1})) with some c>0.

Loss functions serve as the foundation of supervised learning and are often chosen prior to model development. To avoid potentially ad hoc choices of losses, statistical decision theory describes a desirable property for losses known as properness, which asserts that Bayes' rule is optimal. Recent works have sought to learn losses and models jointly. Existing methods do this by fitting an inverse canonical link function which monotonically maps R to [0,1] to estimate probabilities for binary problems. In this paper, we extend monotonicity to maps between R^{C-1} and the projected probability simplex Delta^{C-1} by using monotonicity of gradients of convex functions. We present {\sc LegendreTron} as a novel and practical method that jointly learns proper canonical losses and probabilities for multiclass problems. Tested on a benchmark of domains with up to 1,000 classes, our experimental results show that our method consistently outperforms the natural multiclass baseline under a t-test at 99% significance on all datasets with greater than 10 classes.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Although the existing causal inference literature focuses on the forward-looking perspective by estimating effects of causes, the backward-looking perspective can provide insights into causes of effects. In backward-looking causal inference, the probability of necessity measures the probability that a certain event is caused by the treatment given the observed treatment and outcome. Most existing results focus on binary outcomes. Motivated by applications with ordinal outcomes, we propose a general definition of the probability of necessity. However, identifying the probability of necessity is challenging because it involves the joint distribution of the potential outcomes. We propose a novel assumption of monotonic incremental treatment effect to identify the probability of necessity with ordinal outcomes. We also discuss the testable implications of this key identification assumption. When it fails, we derive explicit formulas of the sharp large-sample bounds on the probability of necessity.

Recent research has generated hope that inference scaling could allow weaker language models to match or exceed the accuracy of stronger models, such as by repeatedly sampling solutions to a coding problem until it passes unit tests. The central thesis of this paper is that there is no free lunch for inference scaling: indefinite accuracy improvement through resampling can only be realized if the "verifier" (in this case, a set of unit tests) is perfect. When the verifier is imperfect, as it almost always is in domains such as reasoning or coding (for example, unit tests have imperfect coverage), there is a nonzero probability of false positives: incorrect solutions that pass the verifier. Resampling cannot decrease this probability, so it imposes an upper bound to the accuracy of resampling-based inference scaling even with an infinite compute budget. We find that there is a very strong correlation between the model's single-sample accuracy (i.e. accuracy without unit tests) and its false positive rate on coding benchmarks HumanEval and MBPP, whose unit tests have limited coverage. Therefore, no amount of inference scaling of weaker models can enable them to match the single-sample accuracy of a sufficiently strong model (Fig. 1a). When we consider that false positives have a negative utility compared to abstaining from producing a solution, it bends the inference scaling curve further downward. Empirically, we find that the optimal number of samples can be less than 10 under realistic assumptions (Fig. 1b). Finally, we show that beyond accuracy, false positives may have other undesirable qualities, such as poor adherence to coding style conventions.

Machine learning approaches relying on such criteria as adversarial robustness or multi-agent settings have raised the need for solving game-theoretic equilibrium problems. Of particular relevance to these applications are methods targeting finite-sum structure, which generically arises in empirical variants of learning problems in these contexts. Further, methods with computable approximation errors are highly desirable, as they provide verifiable exit criteria. Motivated by these applications, we study finite-sum monotone inclusion problems, which model broad classes of equilibrium problems. Our main contributions are variants of the classical Halpern iteration that employ variance reduction to obtain improved complexity guarantees in which n component operators in the finite sum are ``on average'' either cocoercive or Lipschitz continuous and monotone, with parameter L. The resulting oracle complexity of our methods, which provide guarantees for the last iterate and for a (computable) operator norm residual, is mathcal{O}( n + nLvarepsilon^{-1}), which improves upon existing methods by a factor up to n. This constitutes the first variance reduction-type result for general finite-sum monotone inclusions and for more specific problems such as convex-concave optimization when operator norm residual is the optimality measure. We further argue that, up to poly-logarithmic factors, this complexity is unimprovable in the monotone Lipschitz setting; i.e., the provided result is near-optimal.

Recent research shows that when Gradient Descent (GD) is applied to neural networks, the loss almost never decreases monotonically. Instead, the loss oscillates as gradient descent converges to its ''Edge of Stability'' (EoS). Here, we find a quantity that does decrease monotonically throughout GD training: the sharpness attained by the gradient flow solution (GFS)-the solution that would be obtained if, from now until convergence, we train with an infinitesimal step size. Theoretically, we analyze scalar neural networks with the squared loss, perhaps the simplest setting where the EoS phenomena still occur. In this model, we prove that the GFS sharpness decreases monotonically. Using this result, we characterize settings where GD provably converges to the EoS in scalar networks. Empirically, we show that GD monotonically decreases the GFS sharpness in a squared regression model as well as practical neural network architectures.

Adapting standard methods from geometric measure theory, we provide an example of a polynomial-valued measure mu on tame sets in R^d which satisfies many desirable properties. Among these is strict monotonicity: the measure of a proper subset is strictly less than the measure of the whole set. Using techniques from non-standard analysis, we display that the domain of mu can be extended to all subsets of R^d (up to equivalence modulo infinitesimals). The resulting extension is a numerosity function that encodes the i-dimensional Hausdorff measure for all iin N, as well as the i-th intrinsic volume functions.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited strong mathematical reasoning and computational prowess, tackling tasks ranging from basic arithmetic to advanced competition-level problems. However, frequently occurring subtle errors, such as miscalculations or incorrect substitutions, limit the models' full mathematical potential. Existing studies to improve mathematical ability typically involve distilling reasoning skills from stronger LLMs or applying preference learning to step-wise response pairs. Although these methods leverage samples of varying granularity to mitigate reasoning errors, they overlook the frequently occurring subtle errors. A major reason is that sampled preference pairs involve differences unrelated to the errors, which may distract the model from focusing on subtle errors. In this work, we propose a novel preference learning framework called eRror-Injected Self-Editing (RISE), which injects predefined subtle errors into partial tokens of correct solutions to construct hard pairs for error mitigation. In detail, RISE uses the model itself to edit a small number of tokens in the solution, injecting designed subtle errors. Then, pairs composed of self-edited solutions and their corresponding correct ones, along with pairs of correct and incorrect solutions obtained through sampling, are used together for subtle error-aware DPO training. Compared with other preference learning methods, RISE further refines the training objective to focus on predefined errors and their tokens, without requiring fine-grained sampling or preference annotation. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of RISE, with preference learning on Qwen2-7B-Instruct yielding notable improvements of 3.0% on GSM8K and 7.9% on MATH.

Differentiable sorting algorithms allow training with sorting and ranking supervision, where only the ordering or ranking of samples is known. Various methods have been proposed to address this challenge, ranging from optimal transport-based differentiable Sinkhorn sorting algorithms to making classic sorting networks differentiable. One problem of current differentiable sorting methods is that they are non-monotonic. To address this issue, we propose a novel relaxation of conditional swap operations that guarantees monotonicity in differentiable sorting networks. We introduce a family of sigmoid functions and prove that they produce differentiable sorting networks that are monotonic. Monotonicity ensures that the gradients always have the correct sign, which is an advantage in gradient-based optimization. We demonstrate that monotonic differentiable sorting networks improve upon previous differentiable sorting methods.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Most learning algorithms with formal regret guarantees assume that no mistake is irreparable and essentially rely on trying all possible behaviors. This approach is problematic when some mistakes are catastrophic, i.e., irreparable. We propose an online learning problem where the goal is to minimize the chance of catastrophe. Specifically, we assume that the payoff in each round represents the chance of avoiding catastrophe that round and aim to maximize the product of payoffs (the overall chance of avoiding catastrophe) while allowing a limited number of queries to a mentor. We first show that in general, any algorithm either constantly queries the mentor or is nearly guaranteed to cause catastrophe. However, in settings where the mentor policy class is learnable in the standard online learning model, we provide an algorithm whose regret and rate of querying the mentor both approach 0 as the time horizon grows. Conceptually, if a policy class is learnable in the absence of catastrophic risk, it is learnable in the presence of catastrophic risk if the agent can ask for help.

Error Feedback (EF) is a highly popular and immensely effective mechanism for fixing convergence issues which arise in distributed training methods (such as distributed GD or SGD) when these are enhanced with greedy communication compression techniques such as TopK. While EF was proposed almost a decade ago (Seide et al., 2014), and despite concentrated effort by the community to advance the theoretical understanding of this mechanism, there is still a lot to explore. In this work we study a modern form of error feedback called EF21 (Richtarik et al., 2021) which offers the currently best-known theoretical guarantees, under the weakest assumptions, and also works well in practice. In particular, while the theoretical communication complexity of EF21 depends on the quadratic mean of certain smoothness parameters, we improve this dependence to their arithmetic mean, which is always smaller, and can be substantially smaller, especially in heterogeneous data regimes. We take the reader on a journey of our discovery process. Starting with the idea of applying EF21 to an equivalent reformulation of the underlying problem which (unfortunately) requires (often impractical) machine cloning, we continue to the discovery of a new weighted version of EF21 which can (fortunately) be executed without any cloning, and finally circle back to an improved analysis of the original EF21 method. While this development applies to the simplest form of EF21, our approach naturally extends to more elaborate variants involving stochastic gradients and partial participation. Further, our technique improves the best-known theory of EF21 in the rare features regime (Richtarik et al., 2023). Finally, we validate our theoretical findings with suitable experiments.

We study the problem of designing minimax procedures in linear regression under the quantile risk. We start by considering the realizable setting with independent Gaussian noise, where for any given noise level and distribution of inputs, we obtain the exact minimax quantile risk for a rich family of error functions and establish the minimaxity of OLS. This improves on the known lower bounds for the special case of square error, and provides us with a lower bound on the minimax quantile risk over larger sets of distributions. Under the square error and a fourth moment assumption on the distribution of inputs, we show that this lower bound is tight over a larger class of problems. Specifically, we prove a matching upper bound on the worst-case quantile risk of a variant of the recently proposed min-max regression procedure, thereby establishing its minimaxity, up to absolute constants. We illustrate the usefulness of our approach by extending this result to all p-th power error functions for p in (2, infty). Along the way, we develop a generic analogue to the classical Bayesian method for lower bounding the minimax risk when working with the quantile risk, as well as a tight characterization of the quantiles of the smallest eigenvalue of the sample covariance matrix.

We describe an iterative procedure for optimizing policies, with guaranteed monotonic improvement. By making several approximations to the theoretically-justified procedure, we develop a practical algorithm, called Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO). This algorithm is similar to natural policy gradient methods and is effective for optimizing large nonlinear policies such as neural networks. Our experiments demonstrate its robust performance on a wide variety of tasks: learning simulated robotic swimming, hopping, and walking gaits; and playing Atari games using images of the screen as input. Despite its approximations that deviate from the theory, TRPO tends to give monotonic improvement, with little tuning of hyperparameters.

The intrinsic probabilistic nature of quantum systems makes error correction or mitigation indispensable for quantum computation. While current error-correcting strategies focus on correcting errors in quantum states or quantum gates, these fine-grained error-correction methods can incur significant overhead for quantum algorithms of increasing complexity. We present a first step in achieving error correction at the level of quantum algorithms by combining a unified perspective on modern quantum algorithms via quantum signal processing (QSP). An error model of under- or over-rotation of the signal processing operator parameterized by epsilon < 1 is introduced. It is shown that while Pauli Z-errors are not recoverable without additional resources, Pauli X and Y errors can be arbitrarily suppressed by coherently appending a noisy `recovery QSP.' Furthermore, it is found that a recovery QSP of length O(2^k c^{k^2} d) is sufficient to correct any length-d QSP with c unique phases to k^{th}-order in error epsilon. Allowing an additional assumption, a lower bound of Omega(cd) is shown, which is tight for k = 1, on the length of the recovery sequence. Our algorithmic-level error correction method is applied to Grover's fixed-point search algorithm as a demonstration.

Despite high benchmark scores, Large Language Models (LLMs) often fail simple problem, raising a critical question: Do LLMs learn mathematical principles or merely memorize patterns? Rather than designing increasingly complex benchmarks like recent works, we investigate this using elementary two-integer addition (0 to 2^{64}), probing two core properties: commutativity (A+B=B+A) and compositional generalization (via isomorphic symbolic mappings, e.g., 7 rightarrow y). While state-of-the-art LLMs achieve 73.8-99.8\% accuracy on numerical addition, performance collapses to leq7.5\% under symbolic mapping, indicating failure to generalize learned rules. Non-monotonic performance scaling with digit count and frequent commutativity violations (over 1,700 cases of A+B neq B+A) further support this. Explicitly providing addition rules degrades performance by 81.2\% on average, while self-explanation maintains baseline accuracy, suggesting LLM arithmetic processing is misaligned with human-defined principles. Our findings indicate current LLMs rely on memory pattern over genuine rule learning, highlighting architectural limitations and the need for new approaches to achieve true mathematical reasoning.

We address the problem of optimizing a Brownian motion. We consider a (random) realization W of a Brownian motion with input space in [0,1]. Given W, our goal is to return an ε-approximation of its maximum using the smallest possible number of function evaluations, the sample complexity of the algorithm. We provide an algorithm with sample complexity of order log^2(1/ε). This improves over previous results of Al-Mharmah and Calvin (1996) and Calvin et al. (2017) which provided only polynomial rates. Our algorithm is adaptive---each query depends on previous values---and is an instance of the optimism-in-the-face-of-uncertainty principle.

Motivated by recent advances in operational weather forecasting, we study the efficacy of low-precision arithmetic for climate simulations. We develop a framework to measure rounding error in a climate model which provides a stress-test for a low-precision version of the model, and we apply our method to a variety of models including the Lorenz system; a shallow water approximation for flow over a ridge; and a coarse resolution global atmospheric model with simplified parameterisations (SPEEDY). Although double precision (52 significant bits) is standard across operational climate models, in our experiments we find that single precision (23 sbits) is more than enough and that as low as half precision (10 sbits) is often sufficient. For example, SPEEDY can be run with 12 sbits across the entire code with negligible rounding error and this can be lowered to 10 sbits if very minor errors are accepted, amounting to less than 0.1 mm/6hr for the average grid-point precipitation, for example. Our test is based on the Wasserstein metric and this provides stringent non-parametric bounds on rounding error accounting for annual means as well as extreme weather events. In addition, by testing models using both round-to-nearest (RN) and stochastic rounding (SR) we find that SR can mitigate rounding error across a range of applications. Thus our results also provide evidence that SR could be relevant to next-generation climate models. While many studies have shown that low-precision arithmetic can be suitable on short-term weather forecasting timescales, our results give the first evidence that a similar low precision level can be suitable for climate.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

We show via a combination of mathematical arguments and empirical evidence that data distributions sampled from diffusion models satisfy a Concentration of Measure Property saying that any Lipschitz 1-dimensional projection of a random vector is not too far from its mean with high probability. This implies that such models are quite restrictive and gives an explanation for a fact previously observed in the literature that conventional diffusion models cannot capture "heavy-tailed" data (i.e. data x for which the norm |x|_2 does not possess a sub-Gaussian tail) well. We then proceed to train a generalized linear model using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on the diffusion-generated data for a multiclass classification task and observe empirically that a Gaussian universality result holds for the test error. In other words, the test error depends only on the first and second order statistics of the diffusion-generated data in the linear setting. Results of such forms are desirable because they allow one to assume the data itself is Gaussian for analyzing performance of the trained classifier. Finally, we note that current approaches to proving universality do not apply to this case as the covariance matrices of the data tend to have vanishing minimum singular values for the diffusion-generated data, while the current proofs assume that this is not the case (see Subsection 3.4 for more details). This leaves extending previous mathematical universality results as an intriguing open question.

We study linear contextual bandits in the misspecified setting, where the expected reward function can be approximated by a linear function class up to a bounded misspecification level zeta>0. We propose an algorithm based on a novel data selection scheme, which only selects the contextual vectors with large uncertainty for online regression. We show that, when the misspecification level zeta is dominated by tilde O (Delta / d) with Delta being the minimal sub-optimality gap and d being the dimension of the contextual vectors, our algorithm enjoys the same gap-dependent regret bound tilde O (d^2/Delta) as in the well-specified setting up to logarithmic factors. In addition, we show that an existing algorithm SupLinUCB (Chu et al., 2011) can also achieve a gap-dependent constant regret bound without the knowledge of sub-optimality gap Delta. Together with a lower bound adapted from Lattimore et al. (2020), our result suggests an interplay between misspecification level and the sub-optimality gap: (1) the linear contextual bandit model is efficiently learnable when zeta leq tilde O(Delta / d); and (2) it is not efficiently learnable when zeta geq tilde Omega({Delta} / {d}). Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets corroborate our theoretical results.

We study online reinforcement learning in linear Markov decision processes with adversarial losses and bandit feedback, without prior knowledge on transitions or access to simulators. We introduce two algorithms that achieve improved regret performance compared to existing approaches. The first algorithm, although computationally inefficient, ensures a regret of mathcal{O}left(Kright), where K is the number of episodes. This is the first result with the optimal K dependence in the considered setting. The second algorithm, which is based on the policy optimization framework, guarantees a regret of mathcal{O}left(K^{3{4}} right) and is computationally efficient. Both our results significantly improve over the state-of-the-art: a computationally inefficient algorithm by Kong et al. [2023] with mathcal{O}left(K^{4{5}}+polyleft(1{lambda_{min}}right) right) regret, for some problem-dependent constant lambda_{min} that can be arbitrarily close to zero, and a computationally efficient algorithm by Sherman et al. [2023b] with mathcal{O}left(K^{6{7}} right) regret.

Multi-agent systems (MAS) are increasingly capable of tackling complex real-world tasks, yet their reliance on inter-agent coordination, tool use, and long-horizon reasoning makes error recognition particularly challenging. Minor errors can propagate across agents, escalating into task failures while producing long, intertwined execution trajectories that impose significant costs for both human developers and automated systems to debug and analyze. Our key insight is that, despite surface differences in failure trajectories (e.g., logs), MAS errors often recur with similar structural patterns. This paper presents CORRECT, the first lightweight, training-free framework that leverages an online cache of distilled error schemata to recognize and transfer knowledge of failure structures across new requests. This cache-based reuse allows LLMs to perform targeted error localization at inference time, avoiding the need for expensive retraining while adapting to dynamic MAS deployments in subseconds. To support rigorous study in this domain, we also introduce CORRECT-Error, a large-scale dataset of over 2,000 annotated trajectories collected through a novel error-injection pipeline guided by real-world distributions, and further validated through human evaluation to ensure alignment with natural failure patterns. Experiments across seven diverse MAS applications show that CORRECT improves step-level error localization up to 19.8% over existing advances while at near-zero overhead, substantially narrowing the gap between automated and human-level error recognition.

Maybe not. We identify and analyse errors in the popular Massive Multitask Language Understanding (MMLU) benchmark. Even though MMLU is widely adopted, our analysis demonstrates numerous ground truth errors that obscure the true capabilities of LLMs. For example, we find that 57% of the analysed questions in the Virology subset contain errors. To address this issue, we introduce a comprehensive framework for identifying dataset errors using a novel error taxonomy. Then, we create MMLU-Redux, which is a subset of 3,000 manually re-annotated questions across 30 MMLU subjects. Using MMLU-Redux, we demonstrate significant discrepancies with the model performance metrics that were originally reported. Our results strongly advocate for revising MMLU's error-ridden questions to enhance its future utility and reliability as a benchmark. Therefore, we open up MMLU-Redux for additional annotation https://huggingface.co/datasets/edinburgh-dawg/mmlu-redux.

In this manuscript we consider the problem of generalized linear estimation on Gaussian mixture data with labels given by a single-index model. Our first result is a sharp asymptotic expression for the test and training errors in the high-dimensional regime. Motivated by the recent stream of results on the Gaussian universality of the test and training errors in generalized linear estimation, we ask ourselves the question: "when is a single Gaussian enough to characterize the error?". Our formula allow us to give sharp answers to this question, both in the positive and negative directions. More precisely, we show that the sufficient conditions for Gaussian universality (or lack of thereof) crucially depend on the alignment between the target weights and the means and covariances of the mixture clusters, which we precisely quantify. In the particular case of least-squares interpolation, we prove a strong universality property of the training error, and show it follows a simple, closed-form expression. Finally, we apply our results to real datasets, clarifying some recent discussion in the literature about Gaussian universality of the errors in this context.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various domains. Math Word Problems (MWPs) serve as a crucial benchmark for evaluating LLMs' reasoning abilities. While most research primarily focuses on improving accuracy, it often neglects understanding and addressing the underlying patterns of errors. Current error classification methods rely on static and predefined categories, which limit their ability to capture the full spectrum of error patterns in mathematical reasoning. To enable systematic error analysis, we collect error samples from 15 different LLMs of varying sizes across four distinct MWP datasets using multiple sampling strategies. Based on this extensive collection, we introduce MWPES-300K, a comprehensive dataset containing 304,865 error samples that cover diverse error patterns and reasoning paths. To reduce human bias and enable fine-grained analysis of error patterns, we propose a novel framework for automated dynamic error classification in mathematical reasoning. Experimental results demonstrate that dataset characteristics significantly shape error patterns, which evolve from basic to complex manifestations as model capabilities increase. With deeper insights into error patterns, we propose error-aware prompting that incorporates common error patterns as explicit guidance, leading to significant improvements in mathematical reasoning performance.

In natural language processing, a recently popular line of work explores how to best report the experimental results of neural networks. One exemplar publication, titled "Show Your Work: Improved Reporting of Experimental Results," advocates for reporting the expected validation effectiveness of the best-tuned model, with respect to the computational budget. In the present work, we critically examine this paper. As far as statistical generalizability is concerned, we find unspoken pitfalls and caveats with this approach. We analytically show that their estimator is biased and uses error-prone assumptions. We find that the estimator favors negative errors and yields poor bootstrapped confidence intervals. We derive an unbiased alternative and bolster our claims with empirical evidence from statistical simulation. Our codebase is at http://github.com/castorini/meanmax.

Variational inequalities have recently attracted considerable interest in machine learning as a flexible paradigm for models that go beyond ordinary loss function minimization (such as generative adversarial networks and related deep learning systems). In this setting, the optimal O(1/t) convergence rate for solving smooth monotone variational inequalities is achieved by the Extra-Gradient (EG) algorithm and its variants. Aiming to alleviate the cost of an extra gradient step per iteration (which can become quite substantial in deep learning applications), several algorithms have been proposed as surrogates to Extra-Gradient with a single oracle call per iteration. In this paper, we develop a synthetic view of such algorithms, and we complement the existing literature by showing that they retain a O(1/t) ergodic convergence rate in smooth, deterministic problems. Subsequently, beyond the monotone deterministic case, we also show that the last iterate of single-call, stochastic extra-gradient methods still enjoys a O(1/t) local convergence rate to solutions of non-monotone variational inequalities that satisfy a second-order sufficient condition.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Preference learning enhances Code LLMs beyond supervised fine-tuning by leveraging relative quality comparisons. Existing methods construct preference pairs from candidates based on test case success, treating the higher pass rate sample as positive and the lower as negative. However, this approach does not pinpoint specific errors in the code, which prevents the model from learning more informative error correction patterns, as aligning failing code as a whole lacks the granularity needed to capture meaningful error-resolution relationships. To address these issues, we propose IterPref, a new preference alignment framework that mimics human iterative debugging to refine Code LLMs. IterPref explicitly locates error regions and aligns the corresponding tokens via a tailored DPO algorithm. To generate informative pairs, we introduce the CodeFlow dataset, where samples are iteratively refined until passing tests, with modifications capturing error corrections. Extensive experiments show that a diverse suite of Code LLMs equipped with IterPref achieves significant performance gains in code generation and improves on challenging tasks like BigCodeBench. In-depth analysis reveals that IterPref yields fewer errors. Our code and data will be made publicaly available.

In this paper, we investigate a problem of actively learning threshold in latent space, where the unknown reward g(gamma, v) depends on the proposed threshold gamma and latent value v and it can be only achieved if the threshold is lower than or equal to the unknown latent value. This problem has broad applications in practical scenarios, e.g., reserve price optimization in online auctions, online task assignments in crowdsourcing, setting recruiting bars in hiring, etc. We first characterize the query complexity of learning a threshold with the expected reward at most epsilon smaller than the optimum and prove that the number of queries needed can be infinitely large even when g(gamma, v) is monotone with respect to both gamma and v. On the positive side, we provide a tight query complexity Theta(1/epsilon^3) when g is monotone and the CDF of value distribution is Lipschitz. Moreover, we show a tight Theta(1/epsilon^3) query complexity can be achieved as long as g satisfies one-sided Lipschitzness, which provides a complete characterization for this problem. Finally, we extend this model to an online learning setting and demonstrate a tight Theta(T^{2/3}) regret bound using continuous-arm bandit techniques and the aforementioned query complexity results.

Evaluating the performance of machine learning models under distribution shift is challenging, especially when we only have unlabeled data from the shifted (target) domain, along with labeled data from the original (source) domain. Recent work suggests that the notion of disagreement, the degree to which two models trained with different randomness differ on the same input, is a key to tackle this problem. Experimentally, disagreement and prediction error have been shown to be strongly connected, which has been used to estimate model performance. Experiments have led to the discovery of the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon, whereby the classification error under the target domain is often a linear function of the classification error under the source domain; and whenever this property holds, disagreement under the source and target domain follow the same linear relation. In this work, we develop a theoretical foundation for analyzing disagreement in high-dimensional random features regression; and study under what conditions the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon occurs in our setting. Experiments on CIFAR-10-C, Tiny ImageNet-C, and Camelyon17 are consistent with our theory and support the universality of the theoretical findings.

We study the accuracy of differentially private mechanisms in the continual release model. A continual release mechanism receives a sensitive dataset as a stream of T inputs and produces, after receiving each input, an accurate output on the obtained inputs. In contrast, a batch algorithm receives the data as one batch and produces a single output. We provide the first strong lower bounds on the error of continual release mechanisms. In particular, for two fundamental problems that are widely studied and used in the batch model, we show that the worst case error of every continual release algorithm is tilde Omega(T^{1/3}) times larger than that of the best batch algorithm. Previous work shows only a polylogarithimic (in T) gap between the worst case error achievable in these two models; further, for many problems, including the summation of binary attributes, the polylogarithmic gap is tight (Dwork et al., 2010; Chan et al., 2010). Our results show that problems closely related to summation -- specifically, those that require selecting the largest of a set of sums -- are fundamentally harder in the continual release model than in the batch model. Our lower bounds assume only that privacy holds for streams fixed in advance (the "nonadaptive" setting). However, we provide matching upper bounds that hold in a model where privacy is required even for adaptively selected streams. This model may be of independent interest.

Simultaneous neural machine translation(SNMT) models start emitting the target sequence before they have processed the source sequence. The recent adaptive policies for SNMT use monotonic attention to perform read/write decisions based on the partial source and target sequences. The lack of sufficient information might cause the monotonic attention to take poor read/write decisions, which in turn negatively affects the performance of the SNMT model. On the other hand, human translators make better read/write decisions since they can anticipate the immediate future words using linguistic information and domain knowledge.Motivated by human translators, in this work, we propose a framework to aid monotonic attention with an external language model to improve its decisions.We conduct experiments on the MuST-C English-German and English-French speech-to-text translation tasks to show the effectiveness of the proposed framework.The proposed SNMT method improves the quality-latency trade-off over the state-of-the-art monotonic multihead attention.

Agents, language model (LM)-based systems that are capable of reasoning, planning, and acting are becoming the dominant paradigm for real-world AI applications. Despite this widespread adoption, the principles that determine their performance remain underexplored, leaving practitioners to rely on heuristics rather than principled design choices. We address this gap by deriving quantitative scaling principles for agent systems. We evaluate this across four diverse benchmarks: Finance-Agent, BrowseComp-Plus, PlanCraft, and Workbench. Using five canonical architectures (Single, Independent, Centralized, Decentralized, Hybrid) instantiated across three LLM families, we perform a controlled evaluation spanning 180 configurations with standardized tools and token budgets. We derive a predictive model using empirical coordination metrics, including efficiency, overhead, error amplification, and redundancy, that achieves cross-validated R^2=0.513. We identify three dominant effects: (1) a tool-coordination trade-off: under fixed computational budgets, tool-heavy tasks suffer disproportionately from multi-agent overhead. (2) a capability saturation: coordination yields diminishing or negative returns (beta=-0.408, p<0.001) once single-agent baselines exceed ~45%. (3) topology-dependent error amplification: independent agents amplify errors 17.2x through unchecked propagation, while centralized coordination contains this to 4.4x. Centralized coordination improves performance by 80.9% on parallelizable tasks like financial reasoning, while decentralized coordination excels on dynamic web navigation (+9.2% vs. +0.2%). Yet for sequential reasoning tasks, all multi-agent variants degraded performance by 39-70%. The framework predicts the optimal coordination strategy for 87% of held-out configurations, providing a predictive principle of agentic scaling based on measurable task properties.

While it is widely known that neural networks are universal approximators of continuous functions, a less known and perhaps more powerful result is that a neural network with a single hidden layer can approximate accurately any nonlinear continuous operator. This universal approximation theorem is suggestive of the potential application of neural networks in learning nonlinear operators from data. However, the theorem guarantees only a small approximation error for a sufficient large network, and does not consider the important optimization and generalization errors. To realize this theorem in practice, we propose deep operator networks (DeepONets) to learn operators accurately and efficiently from a relatively small dataset. A DeepONet consists of two sub-networks, one for encoding the input function at a fixed number of sensors x_i, i=1,dots,m (branch net), and another for encoding the locations for the output functions (trunk net). We perform systematic simulations for identifying two types of operators, i.e., dynamic systems and partial differential equations, and demonstrate that DeepONet significantly reduces the generalization error compared to the fully-connected networks. We also derive theoretically the dependence of the approximation error in terms of the number of sensors (where the input function is defined) as well as the input function type, and we verify the theorem with computational results. More importantly, we observe high-order error convergence in our computational tests, namely polynomial rates (from half order to fourth order) and even exponential convergence with respect to the training dataset size.

Reinforcement Learning, particularly through policy gradient methods, has played a central role in enabling reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models. However, the optimization stability of policy gradients in this setting remains understudied. As a result, existing implementations often resort to conservative hyperparameter choices to ensure stability, which requires more training samples and increases computational costs. Hence, developing models for reliably tracking the underlying optimization dynamics and leveraging them into training enables more sample-efficient regimes and further unleashes scalable post-training. We address this gap by formalizing the stochastic optimization problem of policy gradients with explicit consideration of second-order geometry. We propose a tractable computational framework that tracks and leverages curvature information during policy updates. We further employ this framework to design interventions in the optimization process through data selection. The resultant algorithm, Curvature-Aware Policy Optimization (CAPO), identifies samples that contribute to unstable updates and masks them out. Theoretically, we establish monotonic improvement guarantees under realistic assumptions. On standard math reasoning benchmarks, we empirically show that CAPO ensures stable updates under aggressive learning regimes where baselines catastrophically fail. With minimal intervention (rejecting fewer than 8% of tokens), CAPO achieves up to 30x improvement in sample efficiency over standard GRPO for LLM reasoning.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are prone to hallucination, especially during multi-hop and reasoning-intensive tasks such as mathematical problem solving. While Outcome Reward Models verify only final answers, Process Reward Models (PRMs) score each intermediate step to steer generation toward coherent solutions. We introduce PathFinder-PRM, a novel hierarchical, error-aware discriminative PRM that first classifies math and consistency errors at each step, then combines these fine-grained signals to estimate step correctness. To train PathFinder-PRM, we construct a 400K-sample dataset by enriching the human-annotated PRM800K corpus and RLHFlow Mistral traces with three-dimensional step-level labels. On PRMBench, PathFinder-PRM achieves a new state-of-the-art PRMScore of 67.7, outperforming the prior best (65.5) while using 3 times less data. When applied to reward guided greedy search, our model yields prm@8 48.3, a +1.5 point gain over the strongest baseline. These results demonstrate that decoupled error detection and reward estimation not only boost fine-grained error detection but also substantially improve end-to-end, reward-guided mathematical reasoning with greater data efficiency.

This paper studies the error metric selection for long-term memory learning in sequence modelling. We examine the bias towards short-term memory in commonly used errors, including mean absolute/squared error. Our findings show that all temporally positive-weighted errors are biased towards short-term memory in learning linear functionals. To reduce this bias and improve long-term memory learning, we propose the use of a temporally rescaled error. In addition to reducing the bias towards short-term memory, this approach can also alleviate the vanishing gradient issue. We conduct numerical experiments on different long-memory tasks and sequence models to validate our claims. Numerical results confirm the importance of appropriate temporally rescaled error for effective long-term memory learning. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that quantitatively analyzes different errors' memory bias towards short-term memory in sequence modelling.

While self-correction has shown promise in improving LLM outputs in terms of style and quality (e.g. Chen et al., 2023; Madaan et al., 2023), recent attempts to self-correct logical or reasoning errors often cause correct answers to become incorrect, resulting in worse performances overall (Huang et al., 2023). In this paper, we break down the self-correction process into two core components: mistake finding and output correction. For mistake finding, we release BIG-Bench Mistake, a dataset of logical mistakes in Chain-of-Thought reasoning traces. We provide benchmark numbers for several state-of-the-art LLMs, and demonstrate that LLMs generally struggle with finding logical mistakes. For output correction, we propose a backtracking method which provides large improvements when given information on mistake location. We construe backtracking as a lightweight alternative to reinforcement learning methods, and show that it remains effective with a reward model at 60-70% accuracy.

We investigate the expressive power of depth-2 bandlimited random neural networks. A random net is a neural network where the hidden layer parameters are frozen with random assignment, and only the output layer parameters are trained by loss minimization. Using random weights for a hidden layer is an effective method to avoid non-convex optimization in standard gradient descent learning. It has also been adopted in recent deep learning theories. Despite the well-known fact that a neural network is a universal approximator, in this study, we mathematically show that when hidden parameters are distributed in a bounded domain, the network may not achieve zero approximation error. In particular, we derive a new nontrivial approximation error lower bound. The proof utilizes the technique of ridgelet analysis, a harmonic analysis method designed for neural networks. This method is inspired by fundamental principles in classical signal processing, specifically the idea that signals with limited bandwidth may not always be able to perfectly recreate the original signal. We corroborate our theoretical results with various simulation studies, and generally, two main take-home messages are offered: (i) Not any distribution for selecting random weights is feasible to build a universal approximator; (ii) A suitable assignment of random weights exists but to some degree is associated with the complexity of the target function.

Tests that cause spurious failures without any code changes, i.e., flaky tests, hamper regression testing, increase maintenance costs, may shadow real bugs, and decrease trust in tests. While the prevalence and importance of flakiness is well established, prior research focused on Java projects, thus raising the question of how the findings generalize. In order to provide a better understanding of the role of flakiness in software development beyond Java, we empirically study the prevalence, causes, and degree of flakiness within software written in Python, one of the currently most popular programming languages. For this, we sampled 22352 open source projects from the popular PyPI package index, and analyzed their 876186 test cases for flakiness. Our investigation suggests that flakiness is equally prevalent in Python as it is in Java. The reasons, however, are different: Order dependency is a much more dominant problem in Python, causing 59% of the 7571 flaky tests in our dataset. Another 28% were caused by test infrastructure problems, which represent a previously undocumented cause of flakiness. The remaining 13% can mostly be attributed to the use of network and randomness APIs by the projects, which is indicative of the type of software commonly written in Python. Our data also suggests that finding flaky tests requires more runs than are often done in the literature: A 95% confidence that a passing test case is not flaky on average would require 170 reruns.

It is well known that accurate probabilistic predictors can be trained through empirical risk minimisation with proper scoring rules as loss functions. While such learners capture so-called aleatoric uncertainty of predictions, various machine learning methods have recently been developed with the goal to let the learner also represent its epistemic uncertainty, i.e., the uncertainty caused by a lack of knowledge and data. An emerging branch of the literature proposes the use of a second-order learner that provides predictions in terms of distributions on probability distributions. However, recent work has revealed serious theoretical shortcomings for second-order predictors based on loss minimisation. In this paper, we generalise these findings and prove a more fundamental result: There seems to be no loss function that provides an incentive for a second-order learner to faithfully represent its epistemic uncertainty in the same manner as proper scoring rules do for standard (first-order) learners. As a main mathematical tool to prove this result, we introduce the generalised notion of second-order scoring rules.

Federated Learning (FL) is a distributed machine learning paradigm where clients collaboratively train a model using their local (human-generated) datasets. While existing studies focus on FL algorithm development to tackle data heterogeneity across clients, the important issue of data quality (e.g., label noise) in FL is overlooked. This paper aims to fill this gap by providing a quantitative study on the impact of label noise on FL. We derive an upper bound for the generalization error that is linear in the clients' label noise level. Then we conduct experiments on MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets using various FL algorithms. Our empirical results show that the global model accuracy linearly decreases as the noise level increases, which is consistent with our theoretical analysis. We further find that label noise slows down the convergence of FL training, and the global model tends to overfit when the noise level is high.

Language models have demonstrated remarkable performance in solving reasoning tasks; however, even the strongest models still occasionally make reasoning mistakes. Recently, there has been active research aimed at improving reasoning accuracy, particularly by using pretrained language models to "self-correct" their mistakes via multi-round prompting. In this paper, we follow this line of work but focus on understanding the usefulness of incorporating "error-correction" data directly into the pretraining stage. This data consists of erroneous solution steps immediately followed by their corrections. Using a synthetic math dataset, we show promising results: this type of pretrain data can help language models achieve higher reasoning accuracy directly (i.e., through simple auto-regression, without multi-round prompting) compared to pretraining on the same amount of error-free data. We also delve into many details, such as (1) how this approach differs from beam search, (2) how such data can be prepared, (3) whether masking is needed on the erroneous tokens, (4) the amount of error required, (5) whether such data can be deferred to the fine-tuning stage, and many others.

We consider reinforcement learning in an environment modeled by an episodic, finite, stage-dependent Markov decision process of horizon H with S states, and A actions. The performance of an agent is measured by the regret after interacting with the environment for T episodes. We propose an optimistic posterior sampling algorithm for reinforcement learning (OPSRL), a simple variant of posterior sampling that only needs a number of posterior samples logarithmic in H, S, A, and T per state-action pair. For OPSRL we guarantee a high-probability regret bound of order at most mathcal{O}(H^3SAT) ignoring polylog(HSAT) terms. The key novel technical ingredient is a new sharp anti-concentration inequality for linear forms which may be of independent interest. Specifically, we extend the normal approximation-based lower bound for Beta distributions by Alfers and Dinges [1984] to Dirichlet distributions. Our bound matches the lower bound of order Ω(H^3SAT), thereby answering the open problems raised by Agrawal and Jia [2017b] for the episodic setting.

We seek to understand fundamental tradeoffs between the accuracy of prior information that a learner has on a given problem and its learning performance. We introduce the notion of prioritized risk, which differs from traditional notions of minimax and Bayes risk by allowing us to study such fundamental tradeoffs in settings where reality does not necessarily conform to the learner's prior. We present a general reduction-based approach for extending classical minimax lower-bound techniques in order to lower bound the prioritized risk for statistical estimation problems. We also introduce a novel generalization of Fano's inequality (which may be of independent interest) for lower bounding the prioritized risk in more general settings involving unbounded losses. We illustrate the ability of our framework to provide insights into tradeoffs between prior information and learning performance for problems in estimation, regression, and reinforcement learning.

We propose a new variant of the Adam optimizer [Kingma and Ba, 2014] called MICROADAM that specifically minimizes memory overheads, while maintaining theoretical convergence guarantees. We achieve this by compressing the gradient information before it is fed into the optimizer state, thereby reducing its memory footprint significantly. We control the resulting compression error via a novel instance of the classical error feedback mechanism from distributed optimization [Seide et al., 2014, Alistarh et al., 2018, Karimireddy et al., 2019] in which the error correction information is itself compressed to allow for practical memory gains. We prove that the resulting approach maintains theoretical convergence guarantees competitive to those of AMSGrad, while providing good practical performance. Specifically, we show that MICROADAM can be implemented efficiently on GPUs: on both million-scale (BERT) and billion-scale (LLaMA) models, MicroAdam provides practical convergence competitive to that of the uncompressed Adam baseline, with lower memory usage and similar running time. Our code is available at https://github.com/IST-DASLab/MicroAdam.

We propose prioritized unit propagation with periodic resetting, which is a simple but surprisingly effective algorithm for solving random SAT instances that are meant to be hard. In particular, an evaluation on the Random Track of the 2017 and 2018 SAT competitions shows that a basic prototype of this simple idea already ranks at second place in both years. We share this observation in the hope that it helps the SAT community better understand the hardness of random instances used in competitions and inspire other interesting ideas on SAT solving.

We investigate the online bandit learning of the monotone multi-linear DR-submodular functions, designing the algorithm BanditMLSM that attains O(T^{2/3}log T) of (1-1/e)-regret. Then we reduce submodular bandit with partition matroid constraint and bandit sequential monotone maximization to the online bandit learning of the monotone multi-linear DR-submodular functions, attaining O(T^{2/3}log T) of (1-1/e)-regret in both problems, which improve the existing results. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to give a sublinear regret algorithm for the submodular bandit with partition matroid constraint. A special case of this problem is studied by Streeter et al.(2009). They prove a O(T^{4/5}) (1-1/e)-regret upper bound. For the bandit sequential submodular maximization, the existing work proves an O(T^{2/3}) regret with a suboptimal 1/2 approximation ratio (Niazadeh et al. 2021).

The commitment to single-precision floating-point arithmetic is widespread in the deep learning community. To evaluate whether this commitment is justified, the influence of computing precision (single and double precision) on the optimization performance of the Conjugate Gradient (CG) method (a second-order optimization algorithm) and RMSprop (a first-order algorithm) has been investigated. Tests of neural networks with one to five fully connected hidden layers and moderate or strong nonlinearity with up to 4 million network parameters have been optimized for Mean Square Error (MSE). The training tasks have been set up so that their MSE minimum was known to be zero. Computing experiments have disclosed that single-precision can keep up (with superlinear convergence) with double-precision as long as line search finds an improvement. First-order methods such as RMSprop do not benefit from double precision. However, for moderately nonlinear tasks, CG is clearly superior. For strongly nonlinear tasks, both algorithm classes find only solutions fairly poor in terms of mean square error as related to the output variance. CG with double floating-point precision is superior whenever the solutions have the potential to be useful for the application goal.

We study the task of agnostically learning halfspaces under the Gaussian distribution. Specifically, given labeled examples (x,y) from an unknown distribution on R^n times { pm 1}, whose marginal distribution on x is the standard Gaussian and the labels y can be arbitrary, the goal is to output a hypothesis with 0-1 loss OPT+epsilon, where OPT is the 0-1 loss of the best-fitting halfspace. We prove a near-optimal computational hardness result for this task, under the widely believed sub-exponential time hardness of the Learning with Errors (LWE) problem. Prior hardness results are either qualitatively suboptimal or apply to restricted families of algorithms. Our techniques extend to yield near-optimal lower bounds for related problems, including ReLU regression.

Sparse linear regression is one of the most basic questions in machine learning and statistics. Here, we are given as input a design matrix X in R^{N times d} and measurements or labels {y} in R^N where {y} = {X} {w}^* + {xi}, and {xi} is the noise in the measurements. Importantly, we have the additional constraint that the unknown signal vector {w}^* is sparse: it has k non-zero entries where k is much smaller than the ambient dimension. Our goal is to output a prediction vector {w} that has small prediction error: 1{N}cdot |{X} {w}^* - {X} {w}|^2_2. Information-theoretically, we know what is best possible in terms of measurements: under most natural noise distributions, we can get prediction error at most epsilon with roughly N = O(k log d/epsilon) samples. Computationally, this currently needs d^{Omega(k)} run-time. Alternately, with N = O(d), we can get polynomial-time. Thus, there is an exponential gap (in the dependence on d) between the two and we do not know if it is possible to get d^{o(k)} run-time and o(d) samples. We give the first generic positive result for worst-case design matrices {X}: For any {X}, we show that if the support of {w}^* is chosen at random, we can get prediction error epsilon with N = poly(k, log d, 1/epsilon) samples and run-time poly(d,N). This run-time holds for any design matrix {X} with condition number up to 2^{poly(d)}. Previously, such results were known for worst-case {w}^*, but only for random design matrices from well-behaved families, matrices that have a very low condition number (poly(log d); e.g., as studied in compressed sensing), or those with special structural properties.

We study the problem of learning a single neuron with respect to the L_2^2-loss in the presence of adversarial label noise. We give an efficient algorithm that, for a broad family of activations including ReLUs, approximates the optimal L_2^2-error within a constant factor. Our algorithm applies under much milder distributional assumptions compared to prior work. The key ingredient enabling our results is a novel connection to local error bounds from optimization theory.

Large language models (LLMs) often produce errors, including factual inaccuracies, biases, and reasoning failures, collectively referred to as "hallucinations". Recent studies have demonstrated that LLMs' internal states encode information regarding the truthfulness of their outputs, and that this information can be utilized to detect errors. In this work, we show that the internal representations of LLMs encode much more information about truthfulness than previously recognized. We first discover that the truthfulness information is concentrated in specific tokens, and leveraging this property significantly enhances error detection performance. Yet, we show that such error detectors fail to generalize across datasets, implying that -- contrary to prior claims -- truthfulness encoding is not universal but rather multifaceted. Next, we show that internal representations can also be used for predicting the types of errors the model is likely to make, facilitating the development of tailored mitigation strategies. Lastly, we reveal a discrepancy between LLMs' internal encoding and external behavior: they may encode the correct answer, yet consistently generate an incorrect one. Taken together, these insights deepen our understanding of LLM errors from the model's internal perspective, which can guide future research on enhancing error analysis and mitigation.

Seven years ago, researchers proposed a postprocessing method to equalize the error rates of a model across different demographic groups. The work launched hundreds of papers purporting to improve over the postprocessing baseline. We empirically evaluate these claims through thousands of model evaluations on several tabular datasets. We find that the fairness-accuracy Pareto frontier achieved by postprocessing contains all other methods we were feasibly able to evaluate. In doing so, we address two common methodological errors that have confounded previous observations. One relates to the comparison of methods with different unconstrained base models. The other concerns methods achieving different levels of constraint relaxation. At the heart of our study is a simple idea we call unprocessing that roughly corresponds to the inverse of postprocessing. Unprocessing allows for a direct comparison of methods using different underlying models and levels of relaxation.

Maximizing a monotone submodular function under cardinality constraint k is a core problem in machine learning and database with many basic applications, including video and data summarization, recommendation systems, feature extraction, exemplar clustering, and coverage problems. We study this classic problem in the fully dynamic model where a stream of insertions and deletions of elements of an underlying ground set is given and the goal is to maintain an approximate solution using a fast update time. A recent paper at NeurIPS'20 by Lattanzi, Mitrovic, Norouzi{-}Fard, Tarnawski, Zadimoghaddam claims to obtain a dynamic algorithm for this problem with a 1{2} -epsilon approximation ratio and a query complexity bounded by poly(log(n),log(k),epsilon^{-1}). However, as we explain in this paper, the analysis has some important gaps. Having a dynamic algorithm for the problem with polylogarithmic update time is even more important in light of a recent result by Chen and Peng at STOC'22 who show a matching lower bound for the problem -- any randomized algorithm with a 1{2}+epsilon approximation ratio must have an amortized query complexity that is polynomial in n. In this paper, we develop a simpler algorithm for the problem that maintains a (1{2}-epsilon)-approximate solution for submodular maximization under cardinality constraint k using a polylogarithmic amortized update time.

With Large Language Models (LLMs) being widely used across various tasks, detecting errors in their responses is increasingly crucial. However, little research has been conducted on error detection of LLM responses. Collecting error annotations on LLM responses is challenging due to the subjective nature of many NLP tasks, and thus previous research focuses on tasks of little practical value (e.g., word sorting) or limited error types (e.g., faithfulness in summarization). This work introduces ReaLMistake, the first error detection benchmark consisting of objective, realistic, and diverse errors made by LLMs. ReaLMistake contains three challenging and meaningful tasks that introduce objectively assessable errors in four categories (reasoning correctness, instruction-following, context-faithfulness, and parameterized knowledge), eliciting naturally observed and diverse errors in responses of GPT-4 and Llama 2 70B annotated by experts. We use ReaLMistake to evaluate error detectors based on 12 LLMs. Our findings show: 1) Top LLMs like GPT-4 and Claude 3 detect errors made by LLMs at very low recall, and all LLM-based error detectors perform much worse than humans. 2) Explanations by LLM-based error detectors lack reliability. 3) LLMs-based error detection is sensitive to small changes in prompts but remains challenging to improve. 4) Popular approaches to improving LLMs, including self-consistency and majority vote, do not improve the error detection performance. Our benchmark and code are provided at https://github.com/psunlpgroup/ReaLMistake.

Recently, the study of linear misspecified bandits has generated intriguing implications of the hardness of learning in bandits and reinforcement learning (RL). In particular, Du et al. (2020) show that even if a learner is given linear features in R^d that approximate the rewards in a bandit or RL with a uniform error of varepsilon, searching for an O(varepsilon)-optimal action requires pulling at least Omega(exp(d)) queries. Furthermore, Lattimore et al. (2020) show that a degraded O(varepsilond)-optimal solution can be learned within poly(d/varepsilon) queries. Yet it is unknown whether a structural assumption on the ground-truth parameter, such as sparsity, could break the varepsilond barrier. In this paper, we address this question by showing that algorithms can obtain O(varepsilon)-optimal actions by querying O(varepsilon^{-s}d^s) actions, where s is the sparsity parameter, removing the exp(d)-dependence. We then establish information-theoretical lower bounds, i.e., Omega(exp(s)), to show that our upper bound on sample complexity is nearly tight if one demands an error O(s^{delta}varepsilon) for 0<delta<1. For deltageq 1, we further show that poly(s/varepsilon) queries are possible when the linear features are "good" and even in general settings. These results provide a nearly complete picture of how sparsity can help in misspecified bandit learning and provide a deeper understanding of when linear features are "useful" for bandit and reinforcement learning with misspecification.

Large language models (LLMs) can call tools effectively, yet they remain brittle in multi-turn execution: following a tool call error, smaller models often degenerate into repetitive invalid re-invocations, failing to interpret error feedback and self-correct. This brittleness hinders reliable real-world deployment, where the execution errors are inherently inevitable during tool interaction procedures. We identify a key limitation of current approaches: standard reinforcement learning (RL) treats errors as sparse negative rewards, providing no guidance on how to recover, while pre-collected synthetic error-correction datasets suffer from distribution mismatch with the model's on-policy error modes. To bridge this gap, we propose Fission-GRPO, a framework that converts execution errors into corrective supervision within the RL training loop. Our core mechanism fissions each failed trajectory into a new training instance by augmenting it with diagnostic feedback from a finetuned Error Simulator, then resampling recovery rollouts on-policy. This enables the model to learn from the precise errors it makes during exploration, rather than from static, pre-collected error cases. On the BFCL v4 Multi-Turn, Fission-GRPO improves the error recovery rate of Qwen3-8B by 5.7% absolute, crucially, yielding a 4% overall accuracy gain (42.75% to 46.75%) over GRPO and outperforming specialized tool-use agents.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capability in solving mathematical problems. However, existing approaches primarily focus on improving the quality of correct training data, e.g., distilling high-quality correct solutions from advanced models, neglecting the value contained in error data, potentially hindering the model's reflective ability. Though some studies attempt to leverage error data, they often involve complex mechanisms, such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to explore error nodes. In this work, we propose to enhance LLMs' reasoning ability by Learning from Errors for Mathematical Advancement (LEMMA). LEMMA constructs data consisting of an incorrect solution with an erroneous step and a reflection connection to a correct solution for fine-tuning. Specifically, we systematically analyze the model-generated error types and introduce an error-type grounded mistake augmentation method to collect diverse and representative errors. Correct solutions are either from fixing the errors or generating a fresh start. Through a model-aware smooth reflection connection, the erroneous solution is transferred to the correct one. By fine-tuning on the constructed dataset, the model is able to self-correct errors autonomously within the generation process without relying on external critique models. Experimental results demonstrate that LEMMA achieves significant performance improvements over other strong baselines.

The software package Volna-OP2 is a robust and efficient code capable of simulating the complete life cycle of a tsunami whilst harnessing the latest High Performance Computing (HPC) architectures. In this paper, a comprehensive error analysis and scalability study of the GPU version of the code is presented. A novel decomposition of the numerical errors into the dispersion and dissipation components is explored. Most tsunami codes exhibit amplitude smearing and/or phase lagging/leading, so the decomposition shown here is a new approach and novel tool for explaining these occurrences. It is the first time that the errors of a tsunami code have been assessed in this manner. To date, Volna-OP2 has been widely used by the tsunami modelling community. In particular its computational efficiency has allowed various sensitivity analyses and uncertainty quantification studies. Due to the number of simulations required, there is always a trade-off between accuracy and runtime when carrying out these statistical studies. The analysis presented in this paper will guide the user towards an acceptable level of accuracy within a given runtime.

Agentic systems are evaluated on benchmarks where agents interact with environments to solve tasks. Most papers report a pass@1 score computed from a single run per task, assuming this gives a reliable performance estimate. We test this assumption by collecting 60,000 agentic trajectories on SWE-Bench-Verified, spanning three models and two scaffolds. We find substantial variance: single-run pass@1 estimates vary by 2.2 to 6.0 percentage points depending on which run is selected, with standard deviations exceeding 1.5 percentage points even at temperature 0. This variance has critical implications: reported improvements of 2--3 percentage points may reflect evaluation noise rather than genuine algorithmic progress. Through token-level analysis, we show that trajectories diverge early, often within the first few percent of tokens, and that these small differences cascade into different solution strategies. To enable reliable evaluation of agentic systems, we recommend three concrete practices: (1) estimate pass@1 from multiple independent runs per task, especially when measuring small improvements, (2) use statistical power analysis to determine the number of runs needed to detect expected effect sizes, and (3) consider metrics like pass@k (optimistic bound) and pass^k (pessimistic bound) with k>1 to better characterize the full performance envelope. While these practices increase evaluation cost, they are essential for distinguishing genuine scientific progress from statistical noise.

In this work, we study first-order algorithms for solving Bilevel Optimization (BO) where the objective functions are smooth but possibly nonconvex in both levels and the variables are restricted to closed convex sets. As a first step, we study the landscape of BO through the lens of penalty methods, in which the upper- and lower-level objectives are combined in a weighted sum with penalty parameter sigma > 0. In particular, we establish a strong connection between the penalty function and the hyper-objective by explicitly characterizing the conditions under which the values and derivatives of the two must be O(sigma)-close. A by-product of our analysis is the explicit formula for the gradient of hyper-objective when the lower-level problem has multiple solutions under minimal conditions, which could be of independent interest. Next, viewing the penalty formulation as O(sigma)-approximation of the original BO, we propose first-order algorithms that find an epsilon-stationary solution by optimizing the penalty formulation with sigma = O(epsilon). When the perturbed lower-level problem uniformly satisfies the small-error proximal error-bound (EB) condition, we propose a first-order algorithm that converges to an epsilon-stationary point of the penalty function, using in total O(epsilon^{-3}) and O(epsilon^{-7}) accesses to first-order (stochastic) gradient oracles when the oracle is deterministic and oracles are noisy, respectively. Under an additional assumption on stochastic oracles, we show that the algorithm can be implemented in a fully {\it single-loop} manner, i.e., with O(1) samples per iteration, and achieves the improved oracle-complexity of O(epsilon^{-3}) and O(epsilon^{-5}), respectively.

The study of hardest and easiest fitness landscapes is an active area of research. Recently, Kaufmann, Larcher, Lengler and Zou conjectured that for the self-adjusting (1,lambda)-EA, Adversarial Dynamic BinVal (ADBV) is the hardest dynamic monotone function to optimize. We introduce the function Switching Dynamic BinVal (SDBV) which coincides with ADBV whenever the number of remaining zeros in the search point is strictly less than n/2, where n denotes the dimension of the search space. We show, using a combinatorial argument, that for the (1+1)-EA with any mutation rate p in [0,1], SDBV is drift-minimizing among the class of dynamic monotone functions. Our construction provides the first explicit example of an instance of the partially-ordered evolutionary algorithm (PO-EA) model with parameterized pessimism introduced by Colin, Doerr and F\'erey, building on work of Jansen. We further show that the (1+1)-EA optimizes SDBV in Theta(n^{3/2}) generations. Our simulations demonstrate matching runtimes for both static and self-adjusting (1,lambda) and (1+lambda)-EA. We further show, using an example of fixed dimension, that drift-minimization does not equal maximal runtime.

Reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning of large language models (LLMs) often suffers from instability due to the numerical mismatch between the training and inference policies. While prior work has attempted to mitigate this issue through algorithmic corrections or engineering alignments, we show that its root cause lies in the floating point precision itself. The widely adopted BF16, despite its large dynamic range, introduces large rounding errors that breaks the consistency between training and inference. In this work, we demonstrate that simply reverting to FP16 effectively eliminates this mismatch. The change is simple, fully supported by modern frameworks with only a few lines of code change, and requires no modification to the model architecture or learning algorithm. Our results suggest that using FP16 uniformly yields more stable optimization, faster convergence, and stronger performance across diverse tasks, algorithms and frameworks. We hope these findings motivate a broader reconsideration of precision trade-offs in RL fine-tuning.

Reduced numerical precision is a common technique to reduce computational cost in many Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). While it has been observed that DNNs are resilient to small errors and noise, no general result exists that is capable of predicting a given DNN system architecture's sensitivity to reduced precision. In this project, we emulate arbitrary bit-width using a specified floating-point representation with a truncation method, which is applied to the neural network after each batch. We explore the impact of several model parameters on the network's training accuracy and show results on the MNIST dataset. We then present a preliminary theoretical investigation of the error scaling in both forward and backward propagations. We end with a discussion of the implications of these results as well as the potential for generalization to other network architectures.

When facing data with imbalanced classes or groups, practitioners follow an intriguing strategy to achieve best results. They throw away examples until the classes or groups are balanced in size, and then perform empirical risk minimization on the reduced training set. This opposes common wisdom in learning theory, where the expected error is supposed to decrease as the dataset grows in size. In this work, we leverage extreme value theory to address this apparent contradiction. Our results show that the tails of the data distribution play an important role in determining the worst-group-accuracy of linear classifiers. When learning on data with heavy tails, throwing away data restores the geometric symmetry of the resulting classifier, and therefore improves its worst-group generalization.

Sequential learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is challenging when access to past data is limited, for example, in continual and active learning. In such cases, errors can accumulate over time due to inaccuracies in the posterior, hyperparameters, and inducing points, making accurate learning challenging. Here, we present a method to keep all such errors in check using the recently proposed dual sparse variational GP. Our method enables accurate inference for generic likelihoods and improves learning by actively building and updating a memory of past data. We demonstrate its effectiveness in several applications involving Bayesian optimization, active learning, and continual learning.

We identify label errors in the test sets of 10 of the most commonly-used computer vision, natural language, and audio datasets, and subsequently study the potential for these label errors to affect benchmark results. Errors in test sets are numerous and widespread: we estimate an average of at least 3.3% errors across the 10 datasets, where for example label errors comprise at least 6% of the ImageNet validation set. Putative label errors are identified using confident learning algorithms and then human-validated via crowdsourcing (51% of the algorithmically-flagged candidates are indeed erroneously labeled, on average across the datasets). Traditionally, machine learning practitioners choose which model to deploy based on test accuracy - our findings advise caution here, proposing that judging models over correctly labeled test sets may be more useful, especially for noisy real-world datasets. Surprisingly, we find that lower capacity models may be practically more useful than higher capacity models in real-world datasets with high proportions of erroneously labeled data. For example, on ImageNet with corrected labels: ResNet-18 outperforms ResNet-50 if the prevalence of originally mislabeled test examples increases by just 6%. On CIFAR-10 with corrected labels: VGG-11 outperforms VGG-19 if the prevalence of originally mislabeled test examples increases by just 5%. Test set errors across the 10 datasets can be viewed at https://labelerrors.com and all label errors can be reproduced by https://github.com/cleanlab/label-errors.

Machine learning models always make a prediction, even when it is likely to be inaccurate. This behavior should be avoided in many decision support applications, where mistakes can have severe consequences. Albeit already studied in 1970, machine learning with rejection recently gained interest. This machine learning subfield enables machine learning models to abstain from making a prediction when likely to make a mistake. This survey aims to provide an overview on machine learning with rejection. We introduce the conditions leading to two types of rejection, ambiguity and novelty rejection, which we carefully formalize. Moreover, we review and categorize strategies to evaluate a model's predictive and rejective quality. Additionally, we define the existing architectures for models with rejection and describe the standard techniques for learning such models. Finally, we provide examples of relevant application domains and show how machine learning with rejection relates to other machine learning research areas.

In value-based reinforcement learning methods such as deep Q-learning, function approximation errors are known to lead to overestimated value estimates and suboptimal policies. We show that this problem persists in an actor-critic setting and propose novel mechanisms to minimize its effects on both the actor and the critic. Our algorithm builds on Double Q-learning, by taking the minimum value between a pair of critics to limit overestimation. We draw the connection between target networks and overestimation bias, and suggest delaying policy updates to reduce per-update error and further improve performance. We evaluate our method on the suite of OpenAI gym tasks, outperforming the state of the art in every environment tested.

LLMs have achieved remarkable breakthroughs in reasoning, insights, and tool use, but chaining these abilities into extended processes at the scale of those routinely executed by humans, organizations, and societies has remained out of reach. The models have a persistent error rate that prevents scale-up: for instance, recent experiments in the Towers of Hanoi benchmark domain showed that the process inevitably becomes derailed after at most a few hundred steps. Thus, although LLM research is often still benchmarked on tasks with relatively few dependent logical steps, there is increasing attention on the ability (or inability) of LLMs to perform long range tasks. This paper describes MAKER, the first system that successfully solves a task with over one million LLM steps with zero errors, and, in principle, scales far beyond this level. The approach relies on an extreme decomposition of a task into subtasks, each of which can be tackled by focused microagents. The high level of modularity resulting from the decomposition allows error correction to be applied at each step through an efficient multi-agent voting scheme. This combination of extreme decomposition and error correction makes scaling possible. Thus, the results suggest that instead of relying on continual improvement of current LLMs, massively decomposed agentic processes (MDAPs) may provide a way to efficiently solve problems at the level of organizations and societies.

Lipschitz constants are connected to many properties of neural networks, such as robustness, fairness, and generalization. Existing methods for computing Lipschitz constants either produce relatively loose upper bounds or are limited to small networks. In this paper, we develop an efficient framework for computing the ell_infty local Lipschitz constant of a neural network by tightly upper bounding the norm of Clarke Jacobian via linear bound propagation. We formulate the computation of local Lipschitz constants with a linear bound propagation process on a high-order backward graph induced by the chain rule of Clarke Jacobian. To enable linear bound propagation, we derive tight linear relaxations for specific nonlinearities in Clarke Jacobian. This formulate unifies existing ad-hoc approaches such as RecurJac, which can be seen as a special case of ours with weaker relaxations. The bound propagation framework also allows us to easily borrow the popular Branch-and-Bound (BaB) approach from neural network verification to further tighten Lipschitz constants. Experiments show that on tiny models, our method produces comparable bounds compared to exact methods that cannot scale to slightly larger models; on larger models, our method efficiently produces tighter results than existing relaxed or naive methods, and our method scales to much larger practical models that previous works could not handle. We also demonstrate an application on provable monotonicity analysis. Code is available at https://github.com/shizhouxing/Local-Lipschitz-Constants.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

With the growing adoption of Large Language Model (LLM) agents in persistent, real-world roles, they naturally encounter continuous streams of tasks and inevitable failures. A key limitation, however, is their inability to systematically learn from these mistakes, forcing them to repeat identical errors in similar contexts. Unlike prior training-free methods that primarily store raw instance-level experience or focus on retrieving successful trajectories, we propose Mistake Notebook Learning (MNL), a novel memory framework that enables agents to self-curate generalizable guidance from batch-clustered failures. This mechanism allows agents to distill shared error patterns into structured "mistake notes," updating an external memory only when batch performance improves to ensure stability. To further amplify adaptability, we integrate MNL with test-time scaling, leveraging aggregated failure patterns to actively steer the search process away from known pitfalls. Experiments on mathematical reasoning, Text-to-SQL, and interactive agent benchmarks show that MNL achieves competitive performance compared to existing memory mechanisms and in-context methods in both effectiveness and efficiency. These findings position structured mistake abstraction as a critical lever for robust agent evolution, enabling continuous improvement without the cost of parameter updates. The code is available at https://github.com/Bairong-Xdynamics/MistakeNotebookLearning/tree/main.

Noise is a ubiquitous feature of the physical world. As a result, the first prerequisite of life is fault tolerance: maintaining integrity of state despite external bombardment. Recent experimental advances have revealed that biological systems achieve fault tolerance by implementing mathematically intricate error-correcting codes and by organizing in a modular fashion that physically separates functionally distinct subsystems. These elaborate structures represent a vanishing volume in the massive genetic configuration space. How is it possible that the primitive process of evolution, by which all biological systems evolved, achieved such unusual results? In this work, through experiments in Boolean networks, we show that the simultaneous presence of error correction and modularity in biological systems is no coincidence. Rather, it is a typical co-occurrence in noisy dynamic systems undergoing evolution. From this, we deduce the principle of error correction enhanced evolvability: systems possessing error-correcting codes are more effectively improved by evolution than those without.

Heavy-tail phenomena in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) have been reported in several empirical studies. Experimental evidence in previous works suggests a strong interplay between the heaviness of the tails and generalization behavior of SGD. To address this empirical phenomena theoretically, several works have made strong topological and statistical assumptions to link the generalization error to heavy tails. Very recently, new generalization bounds have been proven, indicating a non-monotonic relationship between the generalization error and heavy tails, which is more pertinent to the reported empirical observations. While these bounds do not require additional topological assumptions given that SGD can be modeled using a heavy-tailed stochastic differential equation (SDE), they can only apply to simple quadratic problems. In this paper, we build on this line of research and develop generalization bounds for a more general class of objective functions, which includes non-convex functions as well. Our approach is based on developing Wasserstein stability bounds for heavy-tailed SDEs and their discretizations, which we then convert to generalization bounds. Our results do not require any nontrivial assumptions; yet, they shed more light to the empirical observations, thanks to the generality of the loss functions.

In this paper, we construct a mixture of neural operators (MoNOs) between function spaces whose complexity is distributed over a network of expert neural operators (NOs), with each NO satisfying parameter scaling restrictions. Our main result is a distributed universal approximation theorem guaranteeing that any Lipschitz non-linear operator between L^2([0,1]^d) spaces can be approximated uniformly over the Sobolev unit ball therein, to any given varepsilon>0 accuracy, by an MoNO while satisfying the constraint that: each expert NO has a depth, width, and rank of O(varepsilon^{-1}). Naturally, our result implies that the required number of experts must be large, however, each NO is guaranteed to be small enough to be loadable into the active memory of most computers for reasonable accuracies varepsilon. During our analysis, we also obtain new quantitative expression rates for classical NOs approximating uniformly continuous non-linear operators uniformly on compact subsets of L^2([0,1]^d).

We define a new class of set functions that in addition to being monotone and subadditive, also admit a very limited form of submodularity defined over a permutation of the ground set. We refer to this permutation as a submodular order. This class of functions includes monotone submodular functions as a sub-family. To understand the importance of this structure in optimization problems we consider the problem of maximizing function value under various types of constraints. To demonstrate the modeling power of submodular order functions we show applications in two different settings. First, we apply our results to the extensively studied problem of assortment optimization. While the objectives in assortment optimization are known to be non-submodular (and non-monotone) even for simple choice models, we show that they are compatible with the notion of submodular order. Consequently, we obtain new and in some cases the first constant factor guarantee for constrained assortment optimization in fundamental choice models. As a second application of submodular order functions, we show an intriguing connection to the maximization of monotone submodular functions in the streaming model. We recover some best known guarantees for this problem as a corollary of our results.

We propose a penalized nonparametric approach to estimating the quantile regression process (QRP) in a nonseparable model using rectifier quadratic unit (ReQU) activated deep neural networks and introduce a novel penalty function to enforce non-crossing of quantile regression curves. We establish the non-asymptotic excess risk bounds for the estimated QRP and derive the mean integrated squared error for the estimated QRP under mild smoothness and regularity conditions. To establish these non-asymptotic risk and estimation error bounds, we also develop a new error bound for approximating C^s smooth functions with s >0 and their derivatives using ReQU activated neural networks. This is a new approximation result for ReQU networks and is of independent interest and may be useful in other problems. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that the proposed method is competitive with or outperforms two existing methods, including methods using reproducing kernels and random forests, for nonparametric quantile regression.

Students frequently make mistakes while solving mathematical problems, and traditional error correction methods are both time-consuming and labor-intensive. This paper introduces an innovative Virtual AI Teacher system designed to autonomously analyze and correct student Errors (VATE). Leveraging advanced large language models (LLMs), the system uses student drafts as a primary source for error analysis, which enhances understanding of the student's learning process. It incorporates sophisticated prompt engineering and maintains an error pool to reduce computational overhead. The AI-driven system also features a real-time dialogue component for efficient student interaction. Our approach demonstrates significant advantages over traditional and machine learning-based error correction methods, including reduced educational costs, high scalability, and superior generalizability. The system has been deployed on the Squirrel AI learning platform for elementary mathematics education, where it achieves 78.3\% accuracy in error analysis and shows a marked improvement in student learning efficiency. Satisfaction surveys indicate a strong positive reception, highlighting the system's potential to transform educational practices.

Reinforcement learning drives recent advances in LLM reasoning and agentic capabilities, yet current approaches struggle with both exploration and exploitation. Exploration suffers from low success rates on difficult tasks and high costs of repeated rollouts from scratch. Exploitation suffers from coarse credit assignment and training instability: Trajectory-level rewards penalize valid prefixes for later errors, and failure-dominated groups overwhelm the few positive signals, leaving optimization without constructive direction. To this end, we propose R^3L, Reflect-then-Retry Reinforcement Learning with Language-Guided Exploration, Pivotal Credit, and Positive Amplification. To synthesize high-quality trajectories, R^3L shifts from stochastic sampling to active synthesis via reflect-then-retry, leveraging language feedback to diagnose errors, transform failed attempts into successful ones, and reduce rollout costs by restarting from identified failure points. With errors diagnosed and localized, Pivotal Credit Assignment updates only the diverging suffix where contrastive signals exist, excluding the shared prefix from gradient update. Since failures dominate on difficult tasks and reflect-then-retry produces off-policy data, risking training instability, Positive Amplification upweights successful trajectories to ensure positive signals guide the optimization process. Experiments on agentic and reasoning tasks demonstrate 5\% to 52\% relative improvements over baselines while maintaining training stability. Our code is released at https://github.com/shiweijiezero/R3L.

In online algorithm selection (OAS), instances of an algorithmic problem class are presented to an agent one after another, and the agent has to quickly select a presumably best algorithm from a fixed set of candidate algorithms. For decision problems such as satisfiability (SAT), quality typically refers to the algorithm's runtime. As the latter is known to exhibit a heavy-tail distribution, an algorithm is normally stopped when exceeding a predefined upper time limit. As a consequence, machine learning methods used to optimize an algorithm selection strategy in a data-driven manner need to deal with right-censored samples, a problem that has received little attention in the literature so far. In this work, we revisit multi-armed bandit algorithms for OAS and discuss their capability of dealing with the problem. Moreover, we adapt them towards runtime-oriented losses, allowing for partially censored data while keeping a space- and time-complexity independent of the time horizon. In an extensive experimental evaluation on an adapted version of the ASlib benchmark, we demonstrate that theoretically well-founded methods based on Thompson sampling perform specifically strong and improve in comparison to existing methods.

During recent years the interest of optimization and machine learning communities in high-probability convergence of stochastic optimization methods has been growing. One of the main reasons for this is that high-probability complexity bounds are more accurate and less studied than in-expectation ones. However, SOTA high-probability non-asymptotic convergence results are derived under strong assumptions such as the boundedness of the gradient noise variance or of the objective's gradient itself. In this paper, we propose several algorithms with high-probability convergence results under less restrictive assumptions. In particular, we derive new high-probability convergence results under the assumption that the gradient/operator noise has bounded central alpha-th moment for alpha in (1,2] in the following setups: (i) smooth non-convex / Polyak-Lojasiewicz / convex / strongly convex / quasi-strongly convex minimization problems, (ii) Lipschitz / star-cocoercive and monotone / quasi-strongly monotone variational inequalities. These results justify the usage of the considered methods for solving problems that do not fit standard functional classes studied in stochastic optimization.

We extend conformal prediction to control the expected value of any monotone loss function. The algorithm generalizes split conformal prediction together with its coverage guarantee. Like conformal prediction, the conformal risk control procedure is tight up to an O(1/n) factor. We also introduce extensions of the idea to distribution shift, quantile risk control, multiple and adversarial risk control, and expectations of U-statistics. Worked examples from computer vision and natural language processing demonstrate the usage of our algorithm to bound the false negative rate, graph distance, and token-level F1-score.

Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have witnessed remarkable growth, showcasing formidable capabilities in handling intricate multimodal tasks with exceptional performance. Recent research has underscored the inclination of large language models to passively accept defective inputs, often resulting in futile reasoning on invalid prompts. However, the same critical question of whether LMMs can actively detect and scrutinize erroneous inputs still remains unexplored. To address this gap, we introduce the Input Scrutiny Ability Evaluation Framework (ISEval), which encompasses seven categories of flawed premises and three evaluation metrics. Our extensive evaluation of ten advanced LMMs has identified key findings. Most models struggle to actively detect flawed textual premises without guidance, which reflects a strong reliance on explicit prompts for premise error identification. Error type affects performance: models excel at identifying logical fallacies but struggle with surface-level linguistic errors and certain conditional flaws. Modality trust varies-Gemini 2.5 pro and Claude Sonnet 4 balance visual and textual info, while aya-vision-8b over-rely on text in conflicts. These insights underscore the urgent need to enhance LMMs' proactive verification of input validity and shed novel insights into mitigating the problem. The code is available at https://github.com/MLGroupJLU/LMM_ISEval.

In this work, we derive sharp non-asymptotic deviation bounds for weighted sums of Dirichlet random variables. These bounds are based on a novel integral representation of the density of a weighted Dirichlet sum. This representation allows us to obtain a Gaussian-like approximation for the sum distribution using geometry and complex analysis methods. Our results generalize similar bounds for the Beta distribution obtained in the seminal paper Alfers and Dinges [1984]. Additionally, our results can be considered a sharp non-asymptotic version of the inverse of Sanov's theorem studied by Ganesh and O'Connell [1999] in the Bayesian setting. Based on these results, we derive new deviation bounds for the Dirichlet process posterior means with application to Bayesian bootstrap. Finally, we apply our estimates to the analysis of the Multinomial Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm in multi-armed bandits and significantly sharpen the existing regret bounds by making them independent of the size of the arms distribution support.

In this paper, we consider the minimum submodular cost allocation (MSCA) problem. The input of MSCA is k non-negative submodular functions f_1,ldots,f_k on the ground set N given by evaluation oracles, and the goal is to partition N into k (possibly empty) sets X_1,ldots,X_k so that sum_{i=1}^k f_i(X_i) is minimized. In this paper, we focus on the case when f_1,ldots,f_k are monotone (denoted by Mono-MSCA). We provide a natural LP-relaxation for Mono-MSCA, which is equivalent to the convex program relaxation introduced by Chekuri and Ene. We show that the integrality gap of the LP-relaxation is at most k/2, which yields a k/2-approximation algorithm for Mono-MSCA. We also show that the integrality gap of the LP-relaxation is at least k/2-epsilon for any constant epsilon>0 when k is fixed.

Large reasoning models (e.g., R1, o3) have demonstrated remarkable mathematical problem-solving abilities. However, the high reported accuracy of these advanced models on popular datasets, reliance on purely numerical evaluation and potential benchmark leakage, often masks their true reasoning shortcomings. To address this, we propose leveraging the inherent rigor and methodological complexity of mathematical proofs as a diagnostic tool to expose these hidden failures. Specifically, we introduce the RFMDataset (Reveal Failure Modes), a collection of 200 diverse mathematical proof problems, and thoroughly evaluate advanced models' performance on it. Our in-depth analysis of their failures uncovers 10 fine-grained error types, which shows fundamental limitations in current large reasoning models: 1) large reasoning models grapple profoundly with mathematical proofs, with some generating entirely correct proofs for less than 20% of problems and failing even on basic ones; 2) models exhibit a diverse spectrum of reasoning failures, prominently demonstrating the lack of guarantees for the correctness and rigor of single-step reasoning; and 3) models show hallucination and incompleteness during the reasoning process. Our findings reveal that models' self-reflection is insufficient to resolve the current logical dilemmas, necessitating formalized and fine-grained logical training.

Computers calculate transcendental functions by approximating them through the composition of a few limited-precision instructions. For example, an exponential can be calculated with a Taylor series. These approximation methods were developed over the centuries by mathematicians, who emphasized the attainability of arbitrary precision. Computers, however, operate on few limited precision types, such as the popular float32. In this study, we show that when aiming for limited precision, existing approximation methods can be outperformed by programs automatically discovered from scratch by a simple evolutionary algorithm. In particular, over real numbers, our method can approximate the exponential function reaching orders of magnitude more precision for a given number of operations when compared to previous approaches. More practically, over float32 numbers and constrained to less than 1 ULP of error, the same method attains a speedup over baselines by generating code that triggers better XLA/LLVM compilation paths. In other words, in both cases, evolution searched a vast space of possible programs, without knowledge of mathematics, to discover previously unknown optimized approximations to high precision, for the first time. We also give evidence that these results extend beyond the exponential. The ubiquity of transcendental functions suggests that our method has the potential to reduce the cost of scientific computing applications.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

We give the first efficient algorithm for learning halfspaces in the testable learning model recently defined by Rubinfeld and Vasilyan (2023). In this model, a learner certifies that the accuracy of its output hypothesis is near optimal whenever the training set passes an associated test, and training sets drawn from some target distribution -- e.g., the Gaussian -- must pass the test. This model is more challenging than distribution-specific agnostic or Massart noise models where the learner is allowed to fail arbitrarily if the distributional assumption does not hold. We consider the setting where the target distribution is Gaussian (or more generally any strongly log-concave distribution) in d dimensions and the noise model is either Massart or adversarial (agnostic). For Massart noise, our tester-learner runs in polynomial time and outputs a hypothesis with (information-theoretically optimal) error opt + epsilon for any strongly log-concave target distribution. For adversarial noise, our tester-learner obtains error O(opt) + epsilon in polynomial time when the target distribution is Gaussian; for strongly log-concave distributions, we obtain O(opt) + epsilon in quasipolynomial time. Prior work on testable learning ignores the labels in the training set and checks that the empirical moments of the covariates are close to the moments of the base distribution. Here we develop new tests of independent interest that make critical use of the labels and combine them with the moment-matching approach of Gollakota et al. (2023). This enables us to simulate a variant of the algorithm of Diakonikolas et al. (2020) for learning noisy halfspaces using nonconvex SGD but in the testable learning setting.

We study the problem of online prediction, in which at each time step t, an individual x_t arrives, whose label we must predict. Each individual is associated with various groups, defined based on their features such as age, sex, race etc., which may intersect. Our goal is to make predictions that have regret guarantees not just overall but also simultaneously on each sub-sequence comprised of the members of any single group. Previous work such as [Blum & Lykouris] and [Lee et al] provide attractive regret guarantees for these problems; however, these are computationally intractable on large model classes. We show that a simple modification of the sleeping experts technique of [Blum & Lykouris] yields an efficient reduction to the well-understood problem of obtaining diminishing external regret absent group considerations. Our approach gives similar regret guarantees compared to [Blum & Lykouris]; however, we run in time linear in the number of groups, and are oracle-efficient in the hypothesis class. This in particular implies that our algorithm is efficient whenever the number of groups is polynomially bounded and the external-regret problem can be solved efficiently, an improvement on [Blum & Lykouris]'s stronger condition that the model class must be small. Our approach can handle online linear regression and online combinatorial optimization problems like online shortest paths. Beyond providing theoretical regret bounds, we evaluate this algorithm with an extensive set of experiments on synthetic data and on two real data sets -- Medical costs and the Adult income dataset, both instantiated with intersecting groups defined in terms of race, sex, and other demographic characteristics. We find that uniformly across groups, our algorithm gives substantial error improvements compared to running a standard online linear regression algorithm with no groupwise regret guarantees.

We derive a simple and model-independent formula for the change in the generalization gap due to a gradient descent update. We then compare the change in the test error for stochastic gradient descent to the change in test error from an equivalent number of gradient descent updates and show explicitly that stochastic gradient descent acts to regularize generalization error by decorrelating nearby updates. These calculations depends on the details of the model only through the mean and covariance of the gradient distribution, which may be readily measured for particular models of interest. We discuss further improvements to these calculations and comment on possible implications for stochastic optimization.

Recent advances in Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have improved performance in multi-modal learning, raising the question of whether these models truly understand the content they process. Crucially, can VLMs detect when a reasoning process is wrong and identify its error type? To answer this, we present MMErroR, a multi-modal benchmark of 2,013 samples, each embedding a single coherent reasoning error. These samples span 24 subdomains across six top-level domains, ensuring broad coverage and taxonomic richness. Unlike existing benchmarks that focus on answer correctness, MMErroR targets a process-level, error-centric evaluation that requires models to detect incorrect reasoning and classify the error type within both visual and linguistic contexts. We evaluate 20 advanced VLMs, even the best model (Gemini-3.0-Pro) classifies the error in only 66.47\% of cases, underscoring the challenge of identifying erroneous reasoning. Furthermore, the ability to accurately identify errors offers valuable insights into the capabilities of multi-modal reasoning models. Project Page: https://mmerror-benchmark.github.io

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

This paper considers the Pointer Value Retrieval (PVR) benchmark introduced in [ZRKB21], where a 'reasoning' function acts on a string of digits to produce the label. More generally, the paper considers the learning of logical functions with gradient descent (GD) on neural networks. It is first shown that in order to learn logical functions with gradient descent on symmetric neural networks, the generalization error can be lower-bounded in terms of the noise-stability of the target function, supporting a conjecture made in [ZRKB21]. It is then shown that in the distribution shift setting, when the data withholding corresponds to freezing a single feature (referred to as canonical holdout), the generalization error of gradient descent admits a tight characterization in terms of the Boolean influence for several relevant architectures. This is shown on linear models and supported experimentally on other models such as MLPs and Transformers. In particular, this puts forward the hypothesis that for such architectures and for learning logical functions such as PVR functions, GD tends to have an implicit bias towards low-degree representations, which in turn gives the Boolean influence for the generalization error under quadratic loss.

Ensuring vertical separation is a key means of maintaining safe separation between aircraft in congested airspace. Aircraft trajectories are modelled in the presence of significant epistemic uncertainty, leading to discrepancies between observed trajectories and the predictions of deterministic models, hampering the task of planning to ensure safe separation. In this paper a probabilistic model is presented, for the purpose of emulating the trajectories of aircraft in climb and bounding the uncertainty of the predicted trajectory. A monotonic, functional representation exploits the spatio-temporal correlations in the radar observations. Through the use of Gaussian Process Emulators, features that parameterise the climb are mapped directly to functional outputs, providing a fast approximation, while ensuring that the resulting trajectory is monotonic. The model was applied as a probabilistic digital twin for aircraft in climb and baselined against BADA, a deterministic model widely used in industry. When applied to an unseen test dataset, the probabilistic model was found to provide a mean prediction that was 21% more accurate, with a 34% sharper forecast.

We study both stream-based and pool-based active learning with neural network approximations. A recent line of works proposed bandit-based approaches that transformed active learning into a bandit problem, achieving both theoretical and empirical success. However, the performance and computational costs of these methods may be susceptible to the number of classes, denoted as K, due to this transformation. Therefore, this paper seeks to answer the question: "How can we mitigate the adverse impacts of K while retaining the advantages of principled exploration and provable performance guarantees in active learning?" To tackle this challenge, we propose two algorithms based on the newly designed exploitation and exploration neural networks for stream-based and pool-based active learning. Subsequently, we provide theoretical performance guarantees for both algorithms in a non-parametric setting, demonstrating a slower error-growth rate concerning K for the proposed approaches. We use extensive experiments to evaluate the proposed algorithms, which consistently outperform state-of-the-art baselines.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

We consider non-clairvoyant scheduling with online precedence constraints, where an algorithm is oblivious to any job dependencies and learns about a job only if all of its predecessors have been completed. Given strong impossibility results in classical competitive analysis, we investigate the problem in a learning-augmented setting, where an algorithm has access to predictions without any quality guarantee. We discuss different prediction models: novel problem-specific models as well as general ones, which have been proposed in previous works. We present lower bounds and algorithmic upper bounds for different precedence topologies, and thereby give a structured overview on which and how additional (possibly erroneous) information helps for designing better algorithms. Along the way, we also improve bounds on traditional competitive ratios for existing algorithms.

As AI becomes more capable, we entrust it with more general and consequential tasks. The risks from failure grow more severe with increasing task scope. It is therefore important to understand how extremely capable AI models will fail: Will they fail by systematically pursuing goals we do not intend? Or will they fail by being a hot mess, and taking nonsensical actions that do not further any goal? We operationalize this question using a bias-variance decomposition of the errors made by AI models: An AI's incoherence on a task is measured over test-time randomness as the fraction of its error that stems from variance rather than bias in task outcome. Across all tasks and frontier models we measure, the longer models spend reasoning and taking actions, the more incoherent their failures become. Incoherence changes with model scale in a way that is experiment dependent. However, in several settings, larger, more capable models are more incoherent than smaller models. Consequently, scale alone seems unlikely to eliminate incoherence. Instead, as more capable AIs pursue harder tasks, requiring more sequential action and thought, our results predict failures to be accompanied by more incoherent behavior. This suggests a future where AIs sometimes cause industrial accidents (due to unpredictable misbehavior), but are less likely to exhibit consistent pursuit of a misaligned goal. This increases the relative importance of alignment research targeting reward hacking or goal misspecification.

We resolve an open problem of Hanneke on the subject of universally consistent online learning with non-i.i.d. processes and unbounded losses. The notion of an optimistically universal learning rule was defined by Hanneke in an effort to study learning theory under minimal assumptions. A given learning rule is said to be optimistically universal if it achieves a low long-run average loss whenever the data generating process makes this goal achievable by some learning rule. Hanneke posed as an open problem whether, for every unbounded loss, the family of processes admitting universal learning are precisely those having a finite number of distinct values almost surely. In this paper, we completely resolve this problem, showing that this is indeed the case. As a consequence, this also offers a dramatically simpler formulation of an optimistically universal learning rule for any unbounded loss: namely, the simple memorization rule already suffices. Our proof relies on constructing random measurable partitions of the instance space and could be of independent interest for solving other open questions. We extend the results to the non-realizable setting thereby providing an optimistically universal Bayes consistent learning rule.

Simple regret is a natural and parameter-free performance criterion for pure exploration in multi-armed bandits yet is less popular than the probability of missing the best arm or an epsilon-good arm, perhaps due to lack of easy ways to characterize it. In this paper, we make significant progress on minimizing simple regret in both data-rich (Tge n) and data-poor regime (T le n) where n is the number of arms, and T is the number of samples. At its heart is our improved instance-dependent analysis of the well-known Sequential Halving (SH) algorithm, where we bound the probability of returning an arm whose mean reward is not within epsilon from the best (i.e., not epsilon-good) for any choice of epsilon>0, although epsilon is not an input to SH. Our bound not only leads to an optimal worst-case simple regret bound of n/T up to logarithmic factors but also essentially matches the instance-dependent lower bound for returning an epsilon-good arm reported by Katz-Samuels and Jamieson (2020). For the more challenging data-poor regime, we propose Bracketing SH (BSH) that enjoys the same improvement even without sampling each arm at least once. Our empirical study shows that BSH outperforms existing methods on real-world tasks.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

In location estimation, we are given n samples from a known distribution f shifted by an unknown translation lambda, and want to estimate lambda as precisely as possible. Asymptotically, the maximum likelihood estimate achieves the Cram\'er-Rao bound of error mathcal N(0, 1{nmathcal I}), where mathcal I is the Fisher information of f. However, the n required for convergence depends on f, and may be arbitrarily large. We build on the theory using smoothed estimators to bound the error for finite n in terms of mathcal I_r, the Fisher information of the r-smoothed distribution. As n to infty, r to 0 at an explicit rate and this converges to the Cram\'er-Rao bound. We (1) improve the prior work for 1-dimensional f to converge for constant failure probability in addition to high probability, and (2) extend the theory to high-dimensional distributions. In the process, we prove a new bound on the norm of a high-dimensional random variable whose 1-dimensional projections are subgamma, which may be of independent interest.

Uncertainty quantification has received increasing attention in machine learning in the recent past. In particular, a distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty has been found useful in this regard. The latter refers to the learner's (lack of) knowledge and appears to be especially difficult to measure and quantify. In this paper, we analyse a recent proposal based on the idea of a second-order learner, which yields predictions in the form of distributions over probability distributions. While standard (first-order) learners can be trained to predict accurate probabilities, namely by minimising suitable loss functions on sample data, we show that loss minimisation does not work for second-order predictors: The loss functions proposed for inducing such predictors do not incentivise the learner to represent its epistemic uncertainty in a faithful way.

Benchmarks are pivotal in driving AI progress, and invalid benchmark questions frequently undermine their reliability. Manually identifying and correcting errors among thousands of benchmark questions is not only infeasible but also a critical bottleneck for reliable evaluation. In this work, we introduce a framework for systematic benchmark revision that leverages statistical analysis of response patterns to flag potentially invalid questions for further expert review. Our approach builds on a core assumption commonly used in AI evaluations that the mean score sufficiently summarizes model performance. This implies a unidimensional latent construct underlying the measurement experiment, yielding expected ranges for various statistics for each item. When empirically estimated values for these statistics fall outside the expected range for an item, the item is more likely to be problematic. Across nine widely used benchmarks, our method guides expert review to identify problematic questions with up to 84\% precision. In addition, we introduce an LLM-judge first pass to review questions, further reducing human effort. Together, these components provide an efficient and scalable framework for systematic benchmark revision.