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Nov 10

The Z-loss: a shift and scale invariant classification loss belonging to the Spherical Family

Despite being the standard loss function to train multi-class neural networks, the log-softmax has two potential limitations. First, it involves computations that scale linearly with the number of output classes, which can restrict the size of problems we are able to tackle with current hardware. Second, it remains unclear how close it matches the task loss such as the top-k error rate or other non-differentiable evaluation metrics which we aim to optimize ultimately. In this paper, we introduce an alternative classification loss function, the Z-loss, which is designed to address these two issues. Unlike the log-softmax, it has the desirable property of belonging to the spherical loss family (Vincent et al., 2015), a class of loss functions for which training can be performed very efficiently with a complexity independent of the number of output classes. We show experimentally that it significantly outperforms the other spherical loss functions previously investigated. Furthermore, we show on a word language modeling task that it also outperforms the log-softmax with respect to certain ranking scores, such as top-k scores, suggesting that the Z-loss has the flexibility to better match the task loss. These qualities thus makes the Z-loss an appealing candidate to train very efficiently large output networks such as word-language models or other extreme classification problems. On the One Billion Word (Chelba et al., 2014) dataset, we are able to train a model with the Z-loss 40 times faster than the log-softmax and more than 4 times faster than the hierarchical softmax.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 29, 2016

Splines-Based Feature Importance in Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks: A Framework for Supervised Tabular Data Dimensionality Reduction

High-dimensional datasets require effective feature selection to improve predictive performance, interpretability, and robustness. We propose and evaluate feature selection methods for tabular datasets based on Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KANs), which parameterize feature transformations through splines, enabling direct access to interpretable importance measures. We introduce four KAN-based selectors (KAN-L1, KAN-L2, KAN-SI, KAN-KO) and compare them against classical baselines (LASSO, Random Forest, Mutual Information, SVM-RFE) across multiple classification and regression tabular dataset benchmarks. Average (over three retention levels: 20\%, 40\%, and 60\%) F1 scores and R^2 score results reveal that KAN-based selectors, particularly KAN-L2, KAN-L1, KAN-SI, and KAN-KO, are competitive with and sometimes superior to classical baselines in structured and synthetic datasets. However, KAN-L1 is often too aggressive in regression, removing useful features, while KAN-L2 underperforms in classification, where simple coefficient shrinkage misses complex feature interactions. KAN-L2 and KAN-SI provide robust performance on noisy regression datasets and heterogeneous datasets, aligning closely with ensemble predictors. In classification tasks, KAN selectors such as KAN-L1, KAN-KO, and KAN-SI sometimes surpass the other selectors by eliminating redundancy, particularly in high-dimensional multi-class data. Overall, our findings demonstrate that KAN-based feature selection provides a powerful and interpretable alternative to traditional methods, capable of uncovering nonlinear and multivariate feature relevance beyond sparsity or impurity-based measures.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 27, 2025

QuadAttack: A Quadratic Programming Approach to Ordered Top-K Attacks

The adversarial vulnerability of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) has been well-known and widely concerned, often under the context of learning top-1 attacks (e.g., fooling a DNN to classify a cat image as dog). This paper shows that the concern is much more serious by learning significantly more aggressive ordered top-K clear-box~ This is often referred to as white/black-box attacks in the literature. We choose to adopt neutral terminology, clear/opaque-box attacks in this paper, and omit the prefix clear-box for simplicity. targeted attacks proposed in Adversarial Distillation. We propose a novel and rigorous quadratic programming (QP) method of learning ordered top-K attacks with low computing cost, dubbed as QuadAttacK. Our QuadAttacK directly solves the QP to satisfy the attack constraint in the feature embedding space (i.e., the input space to the final linear classifier), which thus exploits the semantics of the feature embedding space (i.e., the principle of class coherence). With the optimized feature embedding vector perturbation, it then computes the adversarial perturbation in the data space via the vanilla one-step back-propagation. In experiments, the proposed QuadAttacK is tested in the ImageNet-1k classification using ResNet-50, DenseNet-121, and Vision Transformers (ViT-B and DEiT-S). It successfully pushes the boundary of successful ordered top-K attacks from K=10 up to K=20 at a cheap budget (1times 60) and further improves attack success rates for K=5 for all tested models, while retaining the performance for K=1.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 12, 2023

DKM: Differentiable K-Means Clustering Layer for Neural Network Compression

Deep neural network (DNN) model compression for efficient on-device inference is becoming increasingly important to reduce memory requirements and keep user data on-device. To this end, we propose a novel differentiable k-means clustering layer (DKM) and its application to train-time weight clustering-based DNN model compression. DKM casts k-means clustering as an attention problem and enables joint optimization of the DNN parameters and clustering centroids. Unlike prior works that rely on additional regularizers and parameters, DKM-based compression keeps the original loss function and model architecture fixed. We evaluated DKM-based compression on various DNN models for computer vision and natural language processing (NLP) tasks. Our results demonstrate that DKM delivers superior compression and accuracy trade-off on ImageNet1k and GLUE benchmarks. For example, DKM-based compression can offer 74.5% top-1 ImageNet1k accuracy on ResNet50 DNN model with 3.3MB model size (29.4x model compression factor). For MobileNet-v1, which is a challenging DNN to compress, DKM delivers 63.9% top-1 ImageNet1k accuracy with 0.72 MB model size (22.4x model compression factor). This result is 6.8% higher top-1accuracy and 33% relatively smaller model size than the current state-of-the-art DNN compression algorithms. Additionally, DKM enables compression of DistilBERT model by 11.8x with minimal (1.1%) accuracy loss on GLUE NLP benchmarks.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 19, 2022

Dual-Encoders for Extreme Multi-Label Classification

Dual-encoder (DE) models are widely used in retrieval tasks, most commonly studied on open QA benchmarks that are often characterized by multi-class and limited training data. In contrast, their performance in multi-label and data-rich retrieval settings like extreme multi-label classification (XMC), remains under-explored. Current empirical evidence indicates that DE models fall significantly short on XMC benchmarks, where SOTA methods linearly scale the number of learnable parameters with the total number of classes (documents in the corpus) by employing per-class classification head. To this end, we first study and highlight that existing multi-label contrastive training losses are not appropriate for training DE models on XMC tasks. We propose decoupled softmax loss - a simple modification to the InfoNCE loss - that overcomes the limitations of existing contrastive losses. We further extend our loss design to a soft top-k operator-based loss which is tailored to optimize top-k prediction performance. When trained with our proposed loss functions, standard DE models alone can match or outperform SOTA methods by up to 2% at Precision@1 even on the largest XMC datasets while being 20x smaller in terms of the number of trainable parameters. This leads to more parameter-efficient and universally applicable solutions for retrieval tasks. Our code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/nilesh2797/dexml.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 16, 2023

Spark Transformer: Reactivating Sparsity in FFN and Attention

The discovery of the lazy neuron phenomenon in trained Transformers, where the vast majority of neurons in their feed-forward networks (FFN) are inactive for each token, has spurred tremendous interests in activation sparsity for enhancing large model efficiency. While notable progress has been made in translating such sparsity to wall-time benefits, modern Transformers have moved away from the ReLU activation function crucial to this phenomenon. Existing efforts on re-introducing activation sparsity often degrade model quality, increase parameter count, complicate or slow down training. Sparse attention, the application of sparse activation to the attention mechanism, often faces similar challenges. This paper introduces the Spark Transformer, a novel architecture that achieves a high level of activation sparsity in both FFN and the attention mechanism while maintaining model quality, parameter count, and standard training procedures. Our method realizes sparsity via top-k masking for explicit control over sparsity level. Crucially, we introduce statistical top-k, a hardware-accelerator-friendly, linear-time approximate algorithm that avoids costly sorting and mitigates significant training slowdown from standard top-k operators. Furthermore, Spark Transformer reallocates existing FFN parameters and attention key embeddings to form a low-cost predictor for identifying activated entries. This design not only mitigates quality loss from enforced sparsity, but also enhances wall-time benefit. Pretrained with the Gemma-2 recipe, Spark Transformer demonstrates competitive performance on standard benchmarks while exhibiting significant sparsity: only 8% of FFN neurons are activated, and each token attends to a maximum of 256 tokens. This sparsity translates to a 2.5x reduction in FLOPs, leading to decoding wall-time speedups of up to 1.79x on CPU and 1.40x on GPU.

  • 19 authors
·
Jun 6, 2025

KWBench: Measuring Unprompted Problem Recognition in Knowledge Work

We introduce the first version of KWBench (Knowledge Work Bench), a benchmark for unprompted problem recognition in large language models: can an LLM identify a professional scenario before attempting to solve it. Existing frontier benchmarks have saturated, and most knowledge-work evaluations to date reduce to extraction or task completion against a specification. KWBench targets the step before that: recognizing the governing structure of the situation from raw inputs alone. The benchmark contains 223 tasks sourced from practitioners across acquisitions, contract negotiations, clinical pharmacy, organizational politics, fraud analysis, and incentive design. Each task encodes a formal game-theoretic pattern (principal-agent conflict, signaling, mechanism design failure, strategic omission, coalitional dynamics, strategic interdependence) and carries structured ground truth recording the expert reading of the situation and the anticipated failure modes. Models receive raw data and a task prompt with no indication of problem type. Scoring is a three-tier rubric gated by a mandatory conjunctive check. Mandatory criteria encode the predicted wrong paths. We evaluate 16 models. The best model passes on 27.9% of tasks. The top two models agree on only 31.7% of their passes. Among the top 8, 44 tasks are solved by exactly one model; routing across the top 8 covers 50.7% of the benchmark, nearly double the best single model. Conditional on passing, quality scores converge (approx 83% across models); unconditional scores do not. Same models articulate the relevant game-theoretic concept correctly when asked, then fail to apply it unprompted. We release KWBench to shift how frontier models are evaluated on knowledge work, scoring them on whether they recognize the right problem from the situation alone, not only on how well they execute once the problem has been framed for them.

clio-ai Clio AI
·
Apr 16 2

simpleKT: A Simple But Tough-to-Beat Baseline for Knowledge Tracing

Knowledge tracing (KT) is the problem of predicting students' future performance based on their historical interactions with intelligent tutoring systems. Recently, many works present lots of special methods for applying deep neural networks to KT from different perspectives like model architecture, adversarial augmentation and etc., which make the overall algorithm and system become more and more complex. Furthermore, due to the lack of standardized evaluation protocol liu2022pykt, there is no widely agreed KT baselines and published experimental comparisons become inconsistent and self-contradictory, i.e., the reported AUC scores of DKT on ASSISTments2009 range from 0.721 to 0.821 minn2018deep,yeung2018addressing. Therefore, in this paper, we provide a strong but simple baseline method to deal with the KT task named simpleKT. Inspired by the Rasch model in psychometrics, we explicitly model question-specific variations to capture the individual differences among questions covering the same set of knowledge components that are a generalization of terms of concepts or skills needed for learners to accomplish steps in a task or a problem. Furthermore, instead of using sophisticated representations to capture student forgetting behaviors, we use the ordinary dot-product attention function to extract the time-aware information embedded in the student learning interactions. Extensive experiments show that such a simple baseline is able to always rank top 3 in terms of AUC scores and achieve 57 wins, 3 ties and 16 loss against 12 DLKT baseline methods on 7 public datasets of different domains. We believe this work serves as a strong baseline for future KT research. Code is available at https://github.com/pykt-team/pykt-toolkitWe merged our model to the \textsc{pyKT benchmark at https://pykt.org/.}.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 22, 2023

OstQuant: Refining Large Language Model Quantization with Orthogonal and Scaling Transformations for Better Distribution Fitting

Post-training quantization (PTQ) has emerged as a widely adopted technique for compressing and accelerating Large Language Models (LLMs). The major challenge in LLM quantization is that uneven and heavy-tailed data distributions can expand the quantization range, thereby reducing bit precision for most values. Recent methods attempt to eliminate outliers and balance inter-channel differences by employing linear transformations; however, they remain heuristic and are often overlook optimizing the data distribution across the entire quantization space.In this paper, we introduce Quantization Space Utilization Rate (QSUR), a novel metric that effectively assesses the quantizability of transformed data by measuring the space utilization of the data in the quantization space. We complement QSUR with mathematical derivations that examine the effects and limitations of various transformations, guiding our development of Orthogonal and Scaling Transformation-based Quantization (OSTQuant). OSQuant employs a learnable equivalent transformation, consisting of an orthogonal transformation and a scaling transformation, to optimize the distributions of weights and activations across the entire quantization space. Futhermore, we propose the KL-Top loss function, designed to mitigate noise during optimization while retaining richer semantic information within the limited calibration data imposed by PTQ. OSTQuant outperforms existing work on various LLMs and benchmarks. In the W4-only setting, it retains 99.5\% of the floating-point accuracy. In the more challenging W4A4KV4 configuration, OSTQuant reduces the performance gap by 32\% on the LLaMA-3-8B model compared to state-of-the-art methods. https://github.com/BrotherHappy/OSTQuant{https://github.com/BrotherHappy/OSTQuant}.

  • 9 authors
·
Jan 23, 2025

TopoMortar: A dataset to evaluate image segmentation methods focused on topology accuracy

We present TopoMortar, a brick wall dataset that is the first dataset specifically designed to evaluate topology-focused image segmentation methods, such as topology loss functions. TopoMortar enables to investigate in two ways whether methods incorporate prior topological knowledge. First, by eliminating challenges seen in real-world data, such as small training set, noisy labels, and out-of-distribution test-set images, that, as we show, impact the effectiveness of topology losses. Second, by allowing to assess in the same dataset topology accuracy across dataset challenges, isolating dataset-related effects from the effect of incorporating prior topological knowledge. In these two experiments, it is deliberately difficult to improve topology accuracy without actually using topology information, thus, permitting to attribute an improvement in topology accuracy to the incorporation of prior topological knowledge. To this end, TopoMortar includes three types of labels (accurate, noisy, pseudo-labels), two fixed training sets (large and small), and in-distribution and out-of-distribution test-set images. We compared eight loss functions on TopoMortar, and we found that clDice achieved the most topologically accurate segmentations, Skeleton Recall loss performed best particularly with noisy labels, and the relative advantageousness of the other loss functions depended on the experimental setting. Additionally, we show that simple methods, such as data augmentation and self-distillation, can elevate Cross entropy Dice loss to surpass most topology loss functions, and that those simple methods can enhance topology loss functions as well. clDice and Skeleton Recall loss, both skeletonization-based loss functions, were also the fastest to train, making this type of loss function a promising research direction. TopoMortar and our code can be found at https://github.com/jmlipman/TopoMortar

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 5, 2025

RiskChainBench: A Benchmark for Obfuscated Platform Message Restoration and Evidence-Grounded Web Investigation

Platform abuse campaigns conceal redirection instructions with emojis, homophones, character decomposition, and redundant symbols, then route users through disguised links to services associated with pornography, fraud, gambling, or illicit transactions. Existing benchmarks evaluate obfuscated text and risky webpages separately, obscuring how target recovery affects downstream evidence acquisition. We introduce RiskChainBench, pairing 3,600 synthetic token-text restoration inputs from 600 source sessions with 600 corresponding human-labeled local web environments. A model first restores the message, operational intent, and destination; the same underlying model then acts as a VLM-driven web agent that investigates the correctly associated website and produces a frozen, evidence-cited risk report without message-side semantics or domain-reputation cues. We score restoration and correct-routing web investigation separately and compose them offline by applying the frozen primary-entry prediction as a gate to the same Task 2 result. Human labels determine task correctness, while a fixed multimodal evidence judge assesses faithfulness, sufficiency, completeness, and consistency. Across ten models, Entry Top-1 ranges from 35.2% to 95.2% and web decision accuracy from 26.3% to 62.8%; the leading systems differ across entry recovery, full reconstruction, website decisions, and fine-grained typing. Execution failures account for 31.9% of web runs, whereas post-decision type errors account for only 0.9%, identifying stable exploration and risk judgment as the principal bottlenecks. We release the benchmark, protocol, and resettable local sandbox.

  • 13 authors
·
Sep 14 4

Label Distributionally Robust Losses for Multi-class Classification: Consistency, Robustness and Adaptivity

We study a family of loss functions named label-distributionally robust (LDR) losses for multi-class classification that are formulated from distributionally robust optimization (DRO) perspective, where the uncertainty in the given label information are modeled and captured by taking the worse case of distributional weights. The benefits of this perspective are several fold: (i) it provides a unified framework to explain the classical cross-entropy (CE) loss and SVM loss and their variants, (ii) it includes a special family corresponding to the temperature-scaled CE loss, which is widely adopted but poorly understood; (iii) it allows us to achieve adaptivity to the uncertainty degree of label information at an instance level. Our contributions include: (1) we study both consistency and robustness by establishing top-k (forall kgeq 1) consistency of LDR losses for multi-class classification, and a negative result that a top-1 consistent and symmetric robust loss cannot achieve top-k consistency simultaneously for all kgeq 2; (2) we propose a new adaptive LDR loss that automatically adapts the individualized temperature parameter to the noise degree of class label of each instance; (3) we demonstrate stable and competitive performance for the proposed adaptive LDR loss on 7 benchmark datasets under 6 noisy label and 1 clean settings against 13 loss functions, and on one real-world noisy dataset. The code is open-sourced at https://github.com/Optimization-AI/ICML2023_LDR.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 29, 2021

Improving Knowledge Distillation via Regularizing Feature Norm and Direction

Knowledge distillation (KD) exploits a large well-trained model (i.e., teacher) to train a small student model on the same dataset for the same task. Treating teacher features as knowledge, prevailing methods of knowledge distillation train student by aligning its features with the teacher's, e.g., by minimizing the KL-divergence between their logits or L2 distance between their intermediate features. While it is natural to believe that better alignment of student features to the teacher better distills teacher knowledge, simply forcing this alignment does not directly contribute to the student's performance, e.g., classification accuracy. In this work, we propose to align student features with class-mean of teacher features, where class-mean naturally serves as a strong classifier. To this end, we explore baseline techniques such as adopting the cosine distance based loss to encourage the similarity between student features and their corresponding class-means of the teacher. Moreover, we train the student to produce large-norm features, inspired by other lines of work (e.g., model pruning and domain adaptation), which find the large-norm features to be more significant. Finally, we propose a rather simple loss term (dubbed ND loss) to simultaneously (1) encourage student to produce large-norm features, and (2) align the direction of student features and teacher class-means. Experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate that our explored techniques help existing KD methods achieve better performance, i.e., higher classification accuracy on ImageNet and CIFAR100 datasets, and higher detection precision on COCO dataset. Importantly, our proposed ND loss helps the most, leading to the state-of-the-art performance on these benchmarks. The source code is available at https://github.com/WangYZ1608/Knowledge-Distillation-via-ND.

  • 6 authors
·
May 26, 2023

Towards Assessing and Benchmarking Risk-Return Tradeoff of Off-Policy Evaluation

Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE) aims to assess the effectiveness of counterfactual policies using only offline logged data and is often used to identify the top-k promising policies for deployment in online A/B tests. Existing evaluation metrics for OPE estimators primarily focus on the "accuracy" of OPE or that of downstream policy selection, neglecting risk-return tradeoff in the subsequent online policy deployment. To address this issue, we draw inspiration from portfolio evaluation in finance and develop a new metric, called SharpeRatio@k, which measures the risk-return tradeoff of policy portfolios formed by an OPE estimator under varying online evaluation budgets (k). We validate our metric in two example scenarios, demonstrating its ability to effectively distinguish between low-risk and high-risk estimators and to accurately identify the most efficient one. Efficiency of an estimator is characterized by its capability to form the most advantageous policy portfolios, maximizing returns while minimizing risks during online deployment, a nuance that existing metrics typically overlook. To facilitate a quick, accurate, and consistent evaluation of OPE via SharpeRatio@k, we have also integrated this metric into an open-source software, SCOPE-RL (https://github.com/hakuhodo-technologies/scope-rl). Employing SharpeRatio@k and SCOPE-RL, we conduct comprehensive benchmarking experiments on various estimators and RL tasks, focusing on their risk-return tradeoff. These experiments offer several interesting directions and suggestions for future OPE research.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 29, 2023

Taming the Fragility of KV Cache Eviction in LLM Inference

Large language models have revolutionized natural language processing, yet their deployment remains hampered by the substantial memory and runtime overhead of the transformer's Key-Value cache. To mitigate this, recent methods employ a scoring-aggregation framework to evict unimportant cache entries, based on the stability assumption-that a fixed subset of entries remains consistently important during generation. However, prior work has largely focused on refining importance indicators for scoring, while defaulting to mean aggregation due to a faithful trust in the stability assumption. In this work, we argue that this underlying assumption is inherently fragile, making mean aggregation highly vulnerable in extreme cases. To counter this, we propose a simple yet elegant defensive aggregation strategy: a two-step, linear-time approach that controls worst-case risk, thereby defending against extreme cases with negligible computational overhead. Embodying this strategy, we propose a novel cache eviction method, DefensiveKV and its extension, Layer-DefensiveKV, which incorporates layer-wise budget allocation. Across seven task domains (18 datasets), our methods reduce generation quality loss by 2.3x and 4.3x respectively, versus the strongest baseline under a 20% cache size. These results set new performance benchmarks and pioneer a promising direction for optimizing cache eviction against underlying fragility through worst-case risk management. Our code is available at https://github.com/FFY0/DefensiveKV.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 15, 2025

LLM Swiss Round: Aggregating Multi-Benchmark Performance via Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

ByteDance-Seed ByteDance Seed
·
Dec 24, 2025 2

Ventor-QTest: Threat-Model-Driven Verification of Vendor-Hosted LLM APIs

As large language models become increasingly widespread, third-party providers that deploy open-weight models have become an important part of the ecosystem. Auditing the quality of their inference APIs is therefore an open problem. We formalize hosted model routing as a stochastic process and propose \textbf{Ventor-QTest}, a composite black-box audit that requires no probability information from the target API. Its repeated-request component sends each frozen constrained context to the target multiple times, reconstructs a categorical output distribution from the returned text counts, and reports average fidelity loss (AFL) as a null-bias-corrected, within-window mean coarsened-KL statistic. Its long-sequence component uses independent runs to report extreme fidelity loss (EFL) through the empirical upper tail of a run-level reference-centered-surprisal statistic. Across three logprob-capable route conditions, AFL shows strong linear descriptive agreement with a logprob-derived coarsened-KL comparator. Across seven route snapshots, 20-run sequence probes reveal route-specific EFL variation. AFL and EFL have little detectable route-level association with GPQA-Diamond accuracy. In contrast, pronounced EFL coincides with a decline in Terminal-Bench pass rate as task exposure increases. This pattern may arise because correctness in long-horizon tasks is more sensitive to extreme fidelity loss. These results motivate reporting AFL and EFL jointly, particularly when auditing long-horizon agentic tasks. The open-source implementation is available at https://github.com/Tencent/AI-Infra-Guard/tree/main/services/api_checker/ventor_qtest.

tencent Tencent
·
Aug 16 2

Rank & Sort Loss for Object Detection and Instance Segmentation

We propose Rank & Sort (RS) Loss, a ranking-based loss function to train deep object detection and instance segmentation methods (i.e. visual detectors). RS Loss supervises the classifier, a sub-network of these methods, to rank each positive above all negatives as well as to sort positives among themselves with respect to (wrt.) their localisation qualities (e.g. Intersection-over-Union - IoU). To tackle the non-differentiable nature of ranking and sorting, we reformulate the incorporation of error-driven update with backpropagation as Identity Update, which enables us to model our novel sorting error among positives. With RS Loss, we significantly simplify training: (i) Thanks to our sorting objective, the positives are prioritized by the classifier without an additional auxiliary head (e.g. for centerness, IoU, mask-IoU), (ii) due to its ranking-based nature, RS Loss is robust to class imbalance, and thus, no sampling heuristic is required, and (iii) we address the multi-task nature of visual detectors using tuning-free task-balancing coefficients. Using RS Loss, we train seven diverse visual detectors only by tuning the learning rate, and show that it consistently outperforms baselines: e.g. our RS Loss improves (i) Faster R-CNN by ~ 3 box AP and aLRP Loss (ranking-based baseline) by ~ 2 box AP on COCO dataset, (ii) Mask R-CNN with repeat factor sampling (RFS) by 3.5 mask AP (~ 7 AP for rare classes) on LVIS dataset; and also outperforms all counterparts. Code is available at: https://github.com/kemaloksuz/RankSortLoss

  • 4 authors
·
Aug 29, 2021

From Knowledge Distillation to Self-Knowledge Distillation: A Unified Approach with Normalized Loss and Customized Soft Labels

Knowledge Distillation (KD) uses the teacher's prediction logits as soft labels to guide the student, while self-KD does not need a real teacher to require the soft labels. This work unifies the formulations of the two tasks by decomposing and reorganizing the generic KD loss into a Normalized KD (NKD) loss and customized soft labels for both target class (image's category) and non-target classes named Universal Self-Knowledge Distillation (USKD). We decompose the KD loss and find the non-target loss from it forces the student's non-target logits to match the teacher's, but the sum of the two non-target logits is different, preventing them from being identical. NKD normalizes the non-target logits to equalize their sum. It can be generally used for KD and self-KD to better use the soft labels for distillation loss. USKD generates customized soft labels for both target and non-target classes without a teacher. It smooths the target logit of the student as the soft target label and uses the rank of the intermediate feature to generate the soft non-target labels with Zipf's law. For KD with teachers, our NKD achieves state-of-the-art performance on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet datasets, boosting the ImageNet Top-1 accuracy of ResNet18 from 69.90% to 71.96% with a ResNet-34 teacher. For self-KD without teachers, USKD is the first self-KD method that can be effectively applied to both CNN and ViT models with negligible additional time and memory cost, resulting in new state-of-the-art results, such as 1.17% and 0.55% accuracy gains on ImageNet for MobileNet and DeiT-Tiny, respectively. Our codes are available at https://github.com/yzd-v/cls_KD.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 22, 2023

Hour-Aware Adaptive Risk Management for Autonomous Memecoin Trading: A Multi-Layer Intelligence Framework

This paper measures hour-of-day effects, filter precision, fragility, and realised yield in a 15-day paper-traded deployment of an autonomous memecoin trading system on Solana decentralised exchanges. The 190-trade sample (March 29 to April 12, 2026) shows a 40.5 percent win rate, mean per-trade return of +0.62 percent, cumulative +117.7 percent (net SOL +0.039), skewness -1.21, excess kurtosis 6.61. A Mann-Whitney U test of three poorest-performing UTC hours (2, 13, 23) against the others yields U = 1,274, p = 0.22; directional but not significant at n = 190. The three hours were selected in-sample, so the comparison is exploratory, not confirmatory. A parallel counterfactual rejection-tracking system collected 4,874 forward-sample observations across 184 distinct rejection events. Of those events, 17.9 percent reached a 50 percent drawdown from reference within 24 hours; 26.0 percent of forward samples recorded the rejected token below half-reference. The filter stack avoided these realised drawdowns: evidence that the rejection criteria are net-positive against forward-market outcomes. Fragility is the principal caveat. Removing the top three trades (1.6 percent of sample) flips cumulative return unprofitable. Profitability rests on a small number of large winners and is structurally fragile. The dataset and audit script are deposited under CC-BY-4.0 (Zenodo DOI 10.5281/zenodo.20043302).

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 5

On the Generalization vs Fidelity Paradox in Knowledge Distillation

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a key technique for compressing large language models into smaller ones while preserving performance. Despite the recent traction of KD research, its effectiveness for smaller language models (LMs) and the mechanisms driving knowledge transfer remain underexplored. In this work, we present the first large-scale empirical and statistical analysis of KD across models ranging from 0.5B to 7B parameters on 14 complex reasoning tasks in a zero-shot setting. Our findings reveal that KD can improve the average performance of smaller models by up to 10%, with a peak task specific gain of 22%, while providing only marginal benefits (sim 1.3%) for larger models. Surprisingly, teacher performance has a minimal impact on student outcomes, while teacher task expertise impacts KD effectiveness. A correlation study indicates that smaller LMs benefit more from KD, whereas larger LMs show diminished gains. Additionally, we uncover a misalignment between improvements in student performance and reasoning fidelity, suggesting that while KD enhances accuracy, it does not always maintain the structured decision-making processes of the teacher. Our ablation study further highlights the importance of teacher signals and logit smoothing in influencing students' performance after distillation. Overall, our study offers a comprehensive empirical and statistical assessment of KD, highlighting both its benefits and trade-offs when distilling knowledge from larger to smaller LMs.

  • 3 authors
·
May 21, 2025

A New Way: Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature Deep Hedging and its Benefits

This paper advances the computational efficiency of Deep Hedging frameworks through the novel integration of Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature (K-FAC) optimization. While recent literature has established Deep Hedging as a data-driven alternative to traditional risk management strategies, the computational burden of training neural networks with first-order methods remains a significant impediment to practical implementation. The proposed architecture couples Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with K-FAC second-order optimization, specifically addressing the challenges of sequential financial data and curvature estimation in recurrent networks. Empirical validation using simulated paths from a calibrated Heston stochastic volatility model demonstrates that the K-FAC implementation achieves marked improvements in convergence dynamics and hedging efficacy. The methodology yields a 78.3% reduction in transaction costs (t = 56.88, p < 0.001) and a 34.4% decrease in profit and loss (P&L) variance compared to Adam optimization. Moreover, the K-FAC-enhanced model exhibits superior risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 0.0401, contrasting with -0.0025 for the baseline model. These results provide compelling evidence that second-order optimization methods can materially enhance the tractability of Deep Hedging implementations. The findings contribute to the growing literature on computational methods in quantitative finance while highlighting the potential for advanced optimization techniques to bridge the gap between theoretical frameworks and practical applications in financial markets.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 22, 2024

Learning from Aggregate responses: Instance Level versus Bag Level Loss Functions

Due to the rise of privacy concerns, in many practical applications the training data is aggregated before being shared with the learner, in order to protect privacy of users' sensitive responses. In an aggregate learning framework, the dataset is grouped into bags of samples, where each bag is available only with an aggregate response, providing a summary of individuals' responses in that bag. In this paper, we study two natural loss functions for learning from aggregate responses: bag-level loss and the instance-level loss. In the former, the model is learnt by minimizing a loss between aggregate responses and aggregate model predictions, while in the latter the model aims to fit individual predictions to the aggregate responses. In this work, we show that the instance-level loss can be perceived as a regularized form of the bag-level loss. This observation lets us compare the two approaches with respect to bias and variance of the resulting estimators, and introduce a novel interpolating estimator which combines the two approaches. For linear regression tasks, we provide a precise characterization of the risk of the interpolating estimator in an asymptotic regime where the size of the training set grows in proportion to the features dimension. Our analysis allows us to theoretically understand the effect of different factors, such as bag size on the model prediction risk. In addition, we propose a mechanism for differentially private learning from aggregate responses and derive the optimal bag size in terms of prediction risk-privacy trade-off. We also carry out thorough experiments to corroborate our theory and show the efficacy of the interpolating estimator.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 19, 2024

Efficient Knowledge Distillation for LLMs: Offline Top-K Logits and a Fused Chunked KL Loss

Small language models are often the only option for deployment under tight latency, cost, and on-premises constraints, but they are rarely trained from scratch: a compressed model is usually recovered through knowledge distillation (KD). This recovery step largely decides the final quality, yet it is expensive. We present a practitioner's study of how to make distillation training efficient, organised around two systems contributions. First, we show that offline KD (caching the teacher's top-K logits once and training the student against the cache) matches online distillation at near-identical training loss while removing the teacher from memory, running about 29\% faster per iteration, and reaching up to 41\% higher throughput on a single H200 GPU. Second, we introduce a fused, chunked KL loss that never materialises the full vocabulary-sized logit tensor, making peak memory linear in the sequence length. This removes the memory spike that otherwise caps context length and lets us train at four times the context (32{,}768 tokens) on a single GPU. A separate output-head-only toy benchmark isolates the loss kernel and confirms its memory and iteration-rate scaling from 4K to 256K tokens. Together these make large-scale healing and hundreds of ablations affordable. We also report supporting ablations on loss design and sequence packing. We release our chunked-loss implementation: https://github.com/CompactifAI/Full-Chunked-KL-Loss.

Multi-Similarity Loss with General Pair Weighting for Deep Metric Learning

A family of loss functions built on pair-based computation have been proposed in the literature which provide a myriad of solutions for deep metric learning. In this paper, we provide a general weighting framework for understanding recent pair-based loss functions. Our contributions are three-fold: (1) we establish a General Pair Weighting (GPW) framework, which casts the sampling problem of deep metric learning into a unified view of pair weighting through gradient analysis, providing a powerful tool for understanding recent pair-based loss functions; (2) we show that with GPW, various existing pair-based methods can be compared and discussed comprehensively, with clear differences and key limitations identified; (3) we propose a new loss called multi-similarity loss (MS loss) under the GPW, which is implemented in two iterative steps (i.e., mining and weighting). This allows it to fully consider three similarities for pair weighting, providing a more principled approach for collecting and weighting informative pairs. Finally, the proposed MS loss obtains new state-of-the-art performance on four image retrieval benchmarks, where it outperforms the most recent approaches, such as ABEKim_2018_ECCV and HTL by a large margin: 60.6% to 65.7% on CUB200, and 80.9% to 88.0% on In-Shop Clothes Retrieval dataset at Recall@1. Code is available at https://github.com/MalongTech/research-ms-loss.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 14, 2019

Random Is Almost Enough? Stable and Low-Cost Benchmark Compression via BestRand

Benchmark compression reduces the often prohibitive time and cost of model evaluation by evaluating models on a small benchmark subset that closely matches full-benchmark results. To quantify estimation error, we derive an accurate analytical approximation to the error distribution when estimating full-benchmark scores from a subset, showing that most subsets yield small errors, while a few produce much larger errors, resulting in a long-tailed distribution. This means random sampling alone can achieve surprisingly strong performance with high probability, but remains unstable due to rare large errors. We further show that this instability is inherent to modern foundation models and persists even as more models are evaluated. Based on these findings, we introduce BestRand, a stable and low-cost benchmark compression method that preserves the efficiency of random sampling while substantially reducing its high-error tail. We validate BestRand on 70+ text, multimodal, and agent benchmarks, and further extend it to VLA evaluation. Compared with competitive methods, BestRand reduces high-error risk by 50.2% and estimation error by 16.4% on average, while requiring only 51.3% of the construction cost. It further reduces OOD estimation error by 21.8% on average across score-range, model-family, and temporal shifts. Together, our theory provides practical guidance for understanding and predicting the accuracy and reliability of benchmark compression, while BestRand enables stable and accurate compression at low cost. The code and data are publicly available onhttps://github.com/George-Ling3/BestRand.

Certified Robustness to Word Substitution Ranking Attack for Neural Ranking Models

Neural ranking models (NRMs) have achieved promising results in information retrieval. NRMs have also been shown to be vulnerable to adversarial examples. A typical Word Substitution Ranking Attack (WSRA) against NRMs was proposed recently, in which an attacker promotes a target document in rankings by adding human-imperceptible perturbations to its text. This raises concerns when deploying NRMs in real-world applications. Therefore, it is important to develop techniques that defend against such attacks for NRMs. In empirical defenses adversarial examples are found during training and used to augment the training set. However, such methods offer no theoretical guarantee on the models' robustness and may eventually be broken by other sophisticated WSRAs. To escape this arms race, rigorous and provable certified defense methods for NRMs are needed. To this end, we first define the Certified Top-K Robustness for ranking models since users mainly care about the top ranked results in real-world scenarios. A ranking model is said to be Certified Top-K Robust on a ranked list when it is guaranteed to keep documents that are out of the top K away from the top K under any attack. Then, we introduce a Certified Defense method, named CertDR, to achieve certified top-K robustness against WSRA, based on the idea of randomized smoothing. Specifically, we first construct a smoothed ranker by applying random word substitutions on the documents, and then leverage the ranking property jointly with the statistical property of the ensemble to provably certify top-K robustness. Extensive experiments on two representative web search datasets demonstrate that CertDR can significantly outperform state-of-the-art empirical defense methods for ranking models.

  • 7 authors
·
Sep 14, 2022

High-dimensional dynamics of generalization error in neural networks

We perform an average case analysis of the generalization dynamics of large neural networks trained using gradient descent. We study the practically-relevant "high-dimensional" regime where the number of free parameters in the network is on the order of or even larger than the number of examples in the dataset. Using random matrix theory and exact solutions in linear models, we derive the generalization error and training error dynamics of learning and analyze how they depend on the dimensionality of data and signal to noise ratio of the learning problem. We find that the dynamics of gradient descent learning naturally protect against overtraining and overfitting in large networks. Overtraining is worst at intermediate network sizes, when the effective number of free parameters equals the number of samples, and thus can be reduced by making a network smaller or larger. Additionally, in the high-dimensional regime, low generalization error requires starting with small initial weights. We then turn to non-linear neural networks, and show that making networks very large does not harm their generalization performance. On the contrary, it can in fact reduce overtraining, even without early stopping or regularization of any sort. We identify two novel phenomena underlying this behavior in overcomplete models: first, there is a frozen subspace of the weights in which no learning occurs under gradient descent; and second, the statistical properties of the high-dimensional regime yield better-conditioned input correlations which protect against overtraining. We demonstrate that naive application of worst-case theories such as Rademacher complexity are inaccurate in predicting the generalization performance of deep neural networks, and derive an alternative bound which incorporates the frozen subspace and conditioning effects and qualitatively matches the behavior observed in simulation.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 10, 2017

Language models scale reliably with over-training and on downstream tasks

Scaling laws are useful guides for developing language models, but there are still gaps between current scaling studies and how language models are ultimately trained and evaluated. For instance, scaling is usually studied in the compute-optimal training regime (i.e., "Chinchilla optimal" regime); however, in practice, models are often over-trained to reduce inference costs. Moreover, scaling laws mostly predict loss on next-token prediction, but ultimately models are compared based on downstream task performance. In this paper, we address both shortcomings. To do so, we create a testbed of 104 models with 0.011B to 6.9B parameters trained with various numbers of tokens on three data distributions. First, we investigate scaling in the over-trained regime. We fit scaling laws that extrapolate in both the number of model parameters and the ratio of training tokens to parameters. This enables us to predict the validation loss of a 1.4B parameter, 900B token run (i.e., 32times over-trained) and a 6.9B parameter, 138B token runx2014each from experiments that take 300times less compute. Second, we relate the perplexity of a language model to its downstream task performance via a power law. We use this law to predict top-1 error averaged over downstream tasks for the two aforementioned models using experiments that take 20times less compute. Our experiments are available at https://github.com/mlfoundations/scaling.

  • 23 authors
·
Mar 13, 2024 1

When Does q-error Predict Plan Regret? Three Regimes of Cardinality-Estimation Error

Cardinality-estimation (CE) research ranks estimators by q-error, yet it is well known that q-error is an imperfect proxy for query-plan quality. We give a measurement-driven account of when it is a good proxy and when it is not, and why. Modeling plan selection as an argmin over a piecewise-linear cost landscape, we find that plan regret (the cost of the chosen plan relative to the optimal, under true cardinalities) is governed by plan-cost geometry in a regime-dependent way. (i) For small errors, a true-point condition number kappa predicts regret and out-predicts q-error; its predictive power decays to zero as error grows, as a local linearization must. (ii) For large errors -- where deployed learned estimators operate -- an estimator-independent average-case sub-optimality measure ACS-infinity predicts which queries are regret-prone (Spearman rho ~ 0.54 on STATS-CEB), while q-error is nearly uninformative at the query level (rho ~ 0.05). (iii) The worst case is Haritsa's maximum sub-optimality (MSO). The three are one cost-ratio spectrum under three weightings. We prove a limit law ACS-infinity = sum_k r_k pi_k with cardinality-independent combinatorial weights, and validate every claim on STATS-CEB and JOB-light with four released estimators under pre-registered decision rules, and confirm on real PostgreSQL runtime that ACS-infinity predicts regret where q-error does not. The contribution is conceptual and empirical -- an average-case companion to worst-case robust query optimization, and a characterization of when an accuracy metric tracks plan quality -- rather than a new estimator. Code and the full pre-registration are public.

  • 2 authors
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Jun 13

RidgeFill: Training-Free Late-Layer Cache Fill for Faster Prefill

RidgeFill shortens prefill by not computing most of a model's upper layers for the prompt. The lower layers run exactly up to a split; from the split layer's state a per-layer map predicts every later layer's input, and each late layer writes its cache from that prediction. The design follows YOCO and DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash, where the projection is trained into the model. RidgeFill retrofits it onto models that were never trained for it: the map is a ridge regression fitted once in closed form from one pass over calibration text, the layer's own projections run unchanged, and a chosen set of rows, the last few thousand tokens, and every decoding step run the full model. Nothing is trained and no token is dropped. Most of the work was in measurement, finding a repeatable methodology. Loss averaged over all tokens hides RidgeFill's error. Needle retrieval in the filled region, loss on tokens that depend on distant context, and splice tests that swap filled keys or values for exact ones show which component carries it: the keys on Llama-3.1-8B, half of it in their scale, and the values and the recurrent state on Qwen3.5-9B. On Qwen3.8-27B in a llama.cpp fork on an A100, time to first token is 1.25 to 1.31x faster at 16K to 120K tokens with the maps in VRAM; RULER changes by -1.2 and -1.4 points and LongBench v2 by -1.4; the 95 % intervals include zero but do not rule out losses of a few points. On Qwen3.8-Flash-Next in vLLM it is 1.50 to 1.60x faster than exact at 9K to 32K tokens, with RULER's needle tasks at 99.8 against 100.0 and perplexity on novel tokens 2.65 % higher [-0.02 %, +4.93 %]. On three 8 to 9B reference models, at the same split and tail as the identity fill, the fitted map retrieves 49.1 and 49.6 more filled-region RULER points on the two dense models (at that split Llama's loss is worse), and its long-document loss is +/-0.03 nats of the released SwiftKV checkpoint's.

Optimizing What Matters: AUC-Driven Learning for Robust Neural Retrieval

Dual-encoder retrievers depend on the principle that relevant documents should score higher than irrelevant ones for a given query. Yet the dominant Noise Contrastive Estimation (NCE) objective, which underpins Contrastive Loss, optimizes a softened ranking surrogate that we rigorously prove is fundamentally oblivious to score separation quality and unrelated to AUC. This mismatch leads to poor calibration and suboptimal performance in downstream tasks like retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). To address this fundamental limitation, we introduce the MW loss, a new training objective that maximizes the Mann-Whitney U statistic, which is mathematically equivalent to the Area under the ROC Curve (AUC). MW loss encourages each positive-negative pair to be correctly ranked by minimizing binary cross entropy over score differences. We provide theoretical guarantees that MW loss directly upper-bounds the AoC, better aligning optimization with retrieval goals. We further promote ROC curves and AUC as natural threshold free diagnostics for evaluating retriever calibration and ranking quality. Empirically, retrievers trained with MW loss consistently outperform contrastive counterparts in AUC and standard retrieval metrics. Our experiments show that MW loss is an empirically superior alternative to Contrastive Loss, yielding better-calibrated and more discriminative retrievers for high-stakes applications like RAG.

ServiceNow-AI ServiceNow-AI
·
Sep 30, 2025 2

ISLES'24: Final Infarct Prediction with Multimodal Imaging and Clinical Data. Where Do We Stand?

Accurate estimation of brain infarction (i.e., irreversibly damaged tissue) is critical for guiding treatment decisions in acute ischemic stroke. Reliable infarct prediction informs key clinical interventions, including the need for patient transfer to comprehensive stroke centers, the potential benefit of additional reperfusion attempts during mechanical thrombectomy, decisions regarding secondary neuroprotective treatments, and ultimately, prognosis of clinical outcomes. This work introduces the Ischemic Stroke Lesion Segmentation (ISLES) 2024 challenge, which focuses on the prediction of final infarct volumes from pre-interventional acute stroke imaging and clinical data. ISLES24 provides a comprehensive, multimodal setting where participants can leverage all clinically and practically available data, including full acute CT imaging, sub-acute follow-up MRI, and structured clinical information, across a train set of 150 cases. On the hidden test set of 98 cases, the top-performing model, a multimodal nnU-Net-based architecture, achieved a Dice score of 0.285 (+/- 0.213) and an absolute volume difference of 21.2 (+/- 37.2) mL, underlining the significant challenges posed by this task and the need for further advances in multimodal learning. This work makes two primary contributions: first, we establish a standardized, clinically realistic benchmark for post-treatment infarct prediction, enabling systematic evaluation of multimodal algorithmic strategies on a longitudinal stroke dataset; second, we analyze current methodological limitations and outline key research directions to guide the development of next-generation infarct prediction models.

  • 40 authors
·
Aug 20, 2024

Statistical Perspective of Top-K Sparse Softmax Gating Mixture of Experts

Top-K sparse softmax gating mixture of experts has been widely used for scaling up massive deep-learning architectures without increasing the computational cost. Despite its popularity in real-world applications, the theoretical understanding of that gating function has remained an open problem. The main challenge comes from the structure of the top-K sparse softmax gating function, which partitions the input space into multiple regions with distinct behaviors. By focusing on a Gaussian mixture of experts, we establish theoretical results on the effects of the top-K sparse softmax gating function on both density and parameter estimations. Our results hinge upon defining novel loss functions among parameters to capture different behaviors of the input regions. When the true number of experts k_{ast} is known, we demonstrate that the convergence rates of density and parameter estimations are both parametric on the sample size. However, when k_{ast} becomes unknown and the true model is over-specified by a Gaussian mixture of k experts where k > k_{ast}, our findings suggest that the number of experts selected from the top-K sparse softmax gating function must exceed the total cardinality of a certain number of Voronoi cells associated with the true parameters to guarantee the convergence of the density estimation. Moreover, while the density estimation rate remains parametric under this setting, the parameter estimation rates become substantially slow due to an intrinsic interaction between the softmax gating and expert functions.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 24, 2023

Channel Selection for Mixture-of-Experts Decoding Needs No Calibration Data

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models are bottlenecked by loading routed-expert weights from memory during interactive decoding at small batch sizes. Because most intermediate channels in a routed expert contribute little to any single token, channel selectors predict which channels matter and read only their weights, typically keeping channels above a threshold calibrated on offline data. We show that channel selection needs no calibration data. First, a calibrated threshold does not fix how much a selector reads, because the number of channels passing it varies across inputs; Prox with thresholds calibrated for an 18% read budget actually reads only 12.9% on average across our benchmarks. Second, top-k keeps each token's k highest-scoring channels and needs no calibration data. At the calibrated budget, a selector's top-k version matches or beats its threshold version on the same score in 40 of 43 comparisons at 13% and 18% budgets, including all 23 on generation tasks. The top-k versions also avoid the repetition-loop collapse that calibrated thresholds cause on Gemma 4. Calibrating a threshold thus provides neither of the two things selectors use it for: a known read budget and a consistent accuracy gain at that budget. We furthermore introduce a reader built entirely from the model's weights, which screens channels with a ternary sketch and recovers the skipped ones with a low-rank map. Across three post-trained MoE models, our reader retains 98.1% of full-model accuracy at 17.8% of routed-expert reads, with Triton kernels running MoE blocks 1.60 to 1.90x faster than optimized vLLM at batch one and up to 2.69x at larger batches on the same three models.

kaist-ai KAIST AI
·
Oct 26 6

Forecasting Realized Volatility with Time Series Foundation Models: A Comparison with Econometric Benchmarks

We ask whether pretrained time series foundation models (TSFMs) improve on established econometric benchmarks for forecasting realized volatility. Using the VOLARE dataset, we conduct the first systematic comparison of nine zero-shot TSFMs against eight econometric specifications, including the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) family, across 50 assets in equities, foreign exchange, and futures, and three forecast horizons, with formal pairwise and multi-model forecast-comparison tests. Foundation models do not deliver a uniform gain. Pooled losses favor them, but the advantage is concentrated in a few outlier assets; averaging each asset's loss ratio to a well-specified Log-HAR benchmark, so that no single asset dominates, only one small model, Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), beats the benchmark at every horizon, and by a narrow margin. The other foundation models do not improve on Log-HAR, and the econometric benchmarks remain competitive throughout. A Mincer--Zarnowitz recalibration, which removes level and scale bias from every forecast, shows that much of the short-horizon advantage reflects better-scaled forecasts rather than better prediction of volatility dynamics, and only at the monthly horizon does a genuine informational gain remain. Because this edge is thin and even TTM is not best on every asset, a simple equal-weight average of TTM and Log-HAR matches the best single model and enters the Model Confidence Set for 98 to 100\% of assets, more often than either component alone, so a forecaster need not identify the best model for each asset in advance. Our most durable finding is that performance varies so much across foundation-model architectures that choosing the right architecture matters more than the broader choice between foundation and econometric models.

  • 1 authors
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Jul 5