{
  "name": "uk-2024-electoral-divergence",
  "title": "Uk 2024 Electoral Divergence Electoral Divergence Dataset",
  "description": "Keir Starmer's Labour won the 2024 election with 411 of 650 seats. On the eve of the vote the market gave Labour about 99% probability of winning the most seats, while polls measured about 40% vote intention. Not a contradiction: the market prices who wins, the poll measures vote",
  "version": "1.1.0",
  "created": "2026-07-17T00:00:00Z",
  "homepage": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/AFOS-Analytics1/uk-2024-electoral-divergence",
  "keywords": [
    "elections",
    "prediction-markets",
    "opinion-polls",
    "electoral-divergence",
    "open-data"
  ],
  "licenses": [
    {
      "name": "CC-BY-4.0",
      "title": "Creative Commons Attribution 4.0",
      "path": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
    }
  ],
  "contributors": [
    {
      "title": "AFOS Analytics",
      "role": "author",
      "path": "https://afos-analytics.com"
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "Opinion polls via Wikipedia aggregation (CC BY-SA), original pollsters credited"
    },
    {
      "title": "Polymarket (on-chain prediction market)"
    },
    {
      "title": "World Bank (WGI, WDI) for structural context"
    }
  ],
  "resources": [
    {
      "name": "data-uk-divergence-timeseries",
      "type": "table",
      "path": "data/uk-divergence-timeseries.csv",
      "scheme": "file",
      "format": "csv",
      "mediatype": "text/csv",
      "encoding": "utf-8",
      "schema": {
        "fields": [
          {
            "name": "poll_date",
            "type": "date"
          },
          {
            "name": "pollster",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "party",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "poll_pct",
            "type": "integer"
          },
          {
            "name": "polymarket_pct",
            "type": "number"
          },
          {
            "name": "polymarket_date",
            "type": "date"
          },
          {
            "name": "divergence_pp",
            "type": "number"
          }
        ],
        "missingValues": [
          "",
          "NA",
          "N/A",
          "-"
        ]
      },
      "hash": "sha256:588aa5bc1184f02cdd5a0bd1d0b1a2fb8e7aa1cc0d0b20e1ec1d1af4da8a3947"
    },
    {
      "name": "data-uk-market-odds-timeseries",
      "type": "table",
      "path": "data/uk-market-odds-timeseries.csv",
      "scheme": "file",
      "format": "csv",
      "mediatype": "text/csv",
      "encoding": "utf-8",
      "schema": {
        "fields": [
          {
            "name": "date",
            "type": "date"
          },
          {
            "name": "party",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "polymarket_pct",
            "type": "number"
          },
          {
            "name": "volume_usd",
            "type": "integer"
          }
        ],
        "missingValues": [
          "",
          "NA",
          "N/A",
          "-"
        ]
      },
      "hash": "sha256:ab88f4cc064619b2ba03397f34e1baf6a07eb34dbcc6ec7ee3d74d2f0bb0559a"
    },
    {
      "name": "data-uk-structural-context",
      "type": "table",
      "path": "data/uk-structural-context.csv",
      "scheme": "file",
      "format": "csv",
      "mediatype": "text/csv",
      "encoding": "utf-8",
      "schema": {
        "fields": [
          {
            "name": "category",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "indicator",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "label",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "value",
            "type": "number"
          },
          {
            "name": "unit",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "year",
            "type": "integer"
          },
          {
            "name": "source",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "iso3",
            "type": "string"
          }
        ],
        "missingValues": [
          "",
          "NA",
          "N/A",
          "-"
        ]
      },
      "hash": "sha256:f06c6720d0745bb566bed69fee5e5135360bbfdeb4010e48d0689d3997e6c7fa"
    },
    {
      "name": "news-uk-2024-press-coverage",
      "type": "table",
      "path": "news/uk-2024-press-coverage.csv",
      "scheme": "file",
      "format": "csv",
      "mediatype": "text/csv",
      "encoding": "utf-8",
      "schema": {
        "fields": [
          {
            "name": "date",
            "type": "date"
          },
          {
            "name": "phase",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "outlet",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "headline",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "url",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "lang",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "topic",
            "type": "string"
          }
        ],
        "missingValues": [
          "",
          "NA",
          "N/A",
          "-"
        ]
      },
      "hash": "sha256:07be567365d6fb475c02912e3babaa5b11804b8c16e6c388e9e9bb01cb14d981"
    },
    {
      "name": "polls-uk-polls",
      "type": "table",
      "path": "polls/uk-polls.csv",
      "scheme": "file",
      "format": "csv",
      "mediatype": "text/csv",
      "encoding": "utf-8",
      "schema": {
        "fields": [
          {
            "name": "poll_date",
            "type": "date"
          },
          {
            "name": "fieldwork",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "pollster",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "sample",
            "type": "integer"
          },
          {
            "name": "party",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "party_full",
            "type": "string"
          },
          {
            "name": "percent",
            "type": "number"
          },
          {
            "name": "source_url",
            "type": "string"
          }
        ],
        "missingValues": [
          "",
          "NA",
          "N/A",
          "-"
        ]
      },
      "hash": "sha256:ac6ad79e9b11259a5c34743ff04f400e4360d5627e32f1f0dcfd4d4f76eb70b9"
    }
  ]
}